SDS Week 10 Mailbag: How are backloaded conference schedules affecting the Playoff picture?

We’re six days removed now from the Mizzou loss against Kentucky, and I’m still not over it. It was easily one of the two worst losses of my entire sports fandom.

The other, you ask? Much like “second and 26” brings joy to Alabama fans and misery to Georgia fans, saying “fourth and 26” is enough to get you punched in Wisconsin. Yes, back in 2004, the Green Bay Packers had the Philadelphia Eagles on the ropes, but Donovan McNabb then completed a pass to Freddie Mitchell, who caught it for about 26.5 yards — the only good thing he ever did in the NFL, despite somehow having the nickname “The People’s Champ.”

I was a young pup, only 13 years old at the time, and I threw a water bottle or something against the wall when the Eagles converted the play. My mom then sent me to my room, so I didn’t even get to see the end of the game. That was probably for the best, though, as it meant I didn’t have to watch the Eagles kick the game-tying field goal and then win the game in overtime.

Saturday’s Mizzou loss was every bit as painful as that game, even though it didn’t have the same playoff implications the “fourth and 26” game had. I have zero confidence the Tigers are going to win at Florida this weekend, but for some reason, I’ll still be watching. (Oh, and for good measure, the Packers added their own devastating loss on Sunday, thoroughly ruining my weekend, which I assume each and every one of you cares about.)

Anyway, here are your questions this week:

Robert:

Has the trend towards backloaded conference scheduling rendered October and early November CFP ranking reveals essentially useless? Some of this scheduling is due to rivalries (Apple Cup, Iron Bowl, “The Game”), but it’s hard to get too worked up about where teams like Oklahoma or West Virginia currently stand knowing the biggest Big XII games don’t occur until the final weeks of the season (for dramatic effect).

Bonus question: Does the Big XII change conference scheduling strategy when a team gets passed up for a playoff spot due to the “timing” of a loss?

To the first part of your question, I’d actually argue that the biggest Big 12 game of the year is supposed to occur much earlier. When these schedules were designed, Oklahoma-Texas was supposed to decide which team would take control of the conference.

To me, this year seems like an anomaly, with West Virginia playing Texas, TCU, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma in the last four weeks of the season. However, I don’t think there’s much the Big 12 can do schedule-wise to position themselves better for the Playoff.

The only conference, seemingly, that can afford to have a one-loss champion and still be guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff is the SEC. Last year, a one-loss Big Ten champ was left out. The Pac-12 was also left out last year, and the Big 12 has been left out before. If Clemson loses a game down the stretch this year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them on the outside looking in come selection day, either.

These early CFP rankings are always “useless,” as you say. It’s just a way for the committee to make their thinking known early, so things don’t come as a huge surprise when the final four is actually announced. People were questioning why LSU was ahead of Notre Dame in this week’s rankings, but it doesn’t matter AT ALL.

LSU and Alabama will settle things on the field this weekend. If LSU wins, it’ll have a good chance at No. 1. If Alabama wins, LSU will drop out of the top six and other teams will get their chance in the spotlight.

One thing is for sure, though — the 2018 season is absolutely backloaded, and while that does seem to make the early CFP rankings useless, it’s going to be a heck of a November to be a college football fan.

@SChinni12:

Why can’t Mizzou have nice things? When should I start looking for a new college football team to root for — when we fire Barry Odom and replace him with some D3 defensive line coach or should I just abandon ship now?

Believe me, I understand the helpless feeling that comes with being a Mizzou fan. Those losses to South Carolina and Kentucky have been absolutely brutal, and it seems like most other coaches would have been able to navigate those situations and emerge with victories.

Next year doesn’t offer much hope, either, as guys like Drew Lock, Emanuel Hall, Terry Beckner Jr. and Terez Hall will be gone. It just seems like the Tigers have never been able to take advantage of the talent they’ve had under Odom, and it might get worse next season.

However, I’d advise staying on the ship until the Tigers hire their next head coach, which I think should happen after this season (especially if the Tigers don’t make a bowl game). I know it doesn’t seem likely, but there’s a chance they could hire someone splashy to make waves in the SEC.

But, if they do hire some unknown guy like you predict, feel free to jump ship. I’ll probably stay on board, but we both know that is signing up for a lifetime of pain. And don’t even get me started on the basketball team.

@Dobbe8:

You obviously write about the best conference, but if you had to write for another, what conference would you choose? #MACtion

It would be tough to pry me away from the SEC, but there are definitely some other intriguing options out there. Covering some #MACtion would be very exciting, but after covering the SEC, I think I’d rather stay with one of the Power 5 conferences.

As a Midwest guy (originally from Illinois), I’m tempted to say the Big Ten, and there are some interesting teams there. However, with scandals at Michigan State, Ohio State, Rutgers and Maryland, I’m going to pass.

Give me a job covering the Pac-12. I know they’re an afterthought sometimes in the national debate, especially when some games start at 10 p.m. Eastern time or later, but this is about the part of the country I want to live in. California is beautiful, as are Oregon and Washington. Having lived in Utah for a few years, it is probably the most underrated state in the country. Then you also get Colorado and Arizona?

Yeah, that sounds pretty great. If I couldn’t cover the SEC, I’d definitely cover the Pac-12. Plus, with “Pac-12 After Dark” getting weird, I’d still get some of the craziness that #MACtion provides.

BONUS: It was a great week for the Dobbe Locks of the Week, as he went 3-0, nailing his Georgia-Florida over, Oklahoma State +4 and Tennessee +7.5 picks. Here’s what Dobbe sees happening this weekend (spreads via MyBookie):

• Alabama at LSU (under 54 points) — Alabama domination on both sides of the ball, which doesn’t quite add up to the over.
• Mizzou at Florida (-6) — My Mizzou fan depression pick of the week. Florida wins by double digits.
• UCLA at Oregon (-10.5) — Don’t sleep on the uniforms! The Ducks are wearing some sweet all-black Jordan unis. UCLA will play like their sad old Adidas jerseys.
• Friday Freebie: Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee (-14) — WKU is trash.

Dobbe Locks season record: 5-2

@PatVanH:

I’m going to the Northwestern vs. Iowa game. Who should I cheer for?

Iowa plays at Purdue this weekend and Northwestern has a nonconference game against Notre Dame. If the Hawkeyes win (no easy task against a tough Purdue squad), this could be a game with major Big Ten West implications.

Northwestern is 5-1 in Big Ten play and has two very winnable games against Illinois and Minnesota remaining. Iowa, meanwhile, has winnable games against Nebraska and Illinois remaining and currently has a 3-2 mark in conference play.

Purdue and Wisconsin remain alive in the division, too, so it would be pretty fun to see chaos reign in the Big Ten West. Therefore, rooting for an Iowa home victory (in addition to being fun because Kinnick Stadium is a fantastic environment and Iowa fans are wild) would give Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin a chance at the division title. That seems pretty exciting to me.

Make sure to participate in the best new tradition in college football, too.

Rachel:

Drew Lock, Tua Tagovailoa and Jarrett Stidham are all contestants on The Dating Game. The bachelorette, who is a Georgia native, can only pick one dude. Who is the lucky guy?

A very interesting question, but I’m going to go ahead and eliminate Jarrett Stidham, who is engaged. If he were on The Dating Game, I’d have some very serious questions. Number one, how dare you?

Therefore, this is really a debate between Tua Tagovailoa and Drew Lock. And, to be fair, I’m not sure what either of their current relationship statuses are. As is common in tough decisions like this, let’s make a pros and cons list for each candidate:

Tua Tagovailoa:

• Pros:
  • Perhaps the best quarterback in college football history
  • Likely the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft
  • Will probably have more than one national championship ring
  • Can sing and play the ukulele
• Cons:
  • Left-handed (is that a con? I’ll count it)
  • We don’t really know how he handles adversity, as he has never had any at Bama
  • Too perfect

Drew Lock:

• Pros:
  • Going to be a first-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft
  • Will have his NFL money before Tua
  • Loyal (came back for senior year even though he didn’t have to)
  • Stands up for himself and teammates
• Cons:
  • No title rings to use for engagement purposes
  • Makes questionable decisions sometimes
  • Has some emotional baggage after a rough Mizzou career

So there you have it. Even though I’m on the record with how much I love Lock, I think Tagovailoa is the choice here. But you can’t go wrong with either.

Best of luck to Tagovailoa and this hypothetical bachelorette from Georgia. Let’s be honest, we’d all rather watch either of these guys compete on The Bachelor over Jordan Rodgers.

Adam Spencer

Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.