Betting trends shouldn’t be relied on as a sole source of reasoning for evaluating a potential bet, but they can provide useful context when applied correctly.
Over a large enough sample, coach against-the-spread trends can give insight into patterns that may repeat in the future. For example, Kirby Smart is 0-9 against the spread against FCS opposition — he’s proven time and time again that he has no interest in running up the score in those situations.
Below, I’ll identify the best (and worst) coaches at beating the spread in a variety of situations. A few caveats before we begin:
- Sample size matters, so Pete Golding’s 2-1 record against-the-spread isn’t going to earn him any praise in this column — we need a larger body of work. Even a coach like Jeff Lebby with only 2 head coaching seasons under his belt is probably not enough of a sample to lean on.
- FCS and non-CFP bowl games were excluded from the sample.
- Records go back to 2014 and include ATS records at previous stops (so Lane Kiffin’s FAU and Ole Miss seasons count but his Tennessee and USC records do not).
- ATS records are derived from CollegeFootballData.com’s listed closing lines.
SEC head coach betting trends
Let’s dive in:
Home favorite
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian has the best mark of any SEC coach in this category if you set a minimum of 20 total games. He’s covering at a rate of 58.5% at home since 2014. No other coach with at least a 20-game sample is even over 55%. Since taking over at UT, he’s 18-13 against the spread as a home favorite. I’ll note that Texas is currently -1.5 against Ohio State in Week 2, per most sports betting apps.
New Arkansas coach Ryan Silverfield has been absolutely dreadful as a home favorite, failing to beat the number 17 times with only 6 ATS wins and 1 push. That’s a cover rate of just 26.1%. The only silver lining — Silverfield was better as an underdog, which is the spot he’ll find himself in most often in 2026 with the Razorbacks.
Road favorite
Two coaches stand out here — Jon Sumrall and Kiffin. Sumrall has been absolutely dominant in this spot, converting at an 81% clip but that’s over a 16-game sample. Kiffin has also been elite, hitting 65% across 28 total games. Smart and Josh Heupel also cleared the 55% benchmark here.
On the other end of the spectrum, Kalen DeBoer (45%) and Sarkisian (42%) have both been underwhelming as road favorites. In a smaller sample, Mike Elko is just 4-8 against the spread as a road favorite in his head coaching career.
Home underdog
No one likes being a home underdog more than Eli Drinkwitz. He’s 9-4-1 against the number in that spot. Silverfield is also an impressive 7-2 against the spread as a home dog.
Clark Lea is on the other end of this chart with a 7-12 record, good for a cover rate of just 37%. However, the Commodores were 3-2 ATS with 2 outright wins as a home dog in the Diego Pavia era. We’ll see if Vandy can keep that momentum going with Jared Curtis.
Road underdog
Lea has redeemed himself as a road underdog, going 16-8 against the spread in that spot. That’s a fantastic record. The next-closest (min. 15 games) is Shane Beamer with a record of 10-8. In the Pavia era, Vandy was 8-1 against the spread as a road dog.
Heupel (1-7) and Sarkisian (2-7) both have bad ATS records in this spot. Silverfield, Kiffin and Drinkwitz are also all under .500 on slightly larger samples.
Significant favorite (7+ points)
I’m drawing a bit of an arbitrary line here, but 7+ points seems like a fair line for “significant.” The data is clear here — Kiffin is the best with a cover rate of nearly 62% on a sample of almost 50 games. It’s worth noting that Kiffin’s LSU team is a 9.5-point favorite over Clemson in Week 1 at home, per BetMGM.
Alex Golesh deserves a shoutout too for his 7-3-1 record, but the sample size just isn’t significant yet. Sarkisian, Smart and Heupel are each also above 54% on samples of 50+ contests.
Unsurprisingly, we’ve got Silverfield bringing up the rear again with a 43% cover rate in this spot (12-16-1). Lea and Elko are also under .500 ATS as a touchdown-or-more favorite.
Significant underdog (7+ points)
This is a category that doesn’t lend itself to large sample sizes. Typically, if you’re an underdog of 7+ points consistently, you’re not going to hold on to an SEC job for very long. Of the current crop of SEC coaches, only Beamer and Lea have sample sizes of 20+ games. Both are at or around .500 ATS as a dog of 7+ points.
I’ll note, though, that Heupel is just 1-9 against the spread in this spot — the worst cover rate among any SEC coach regardless of sample size. The best (with a modest requirement of 10 games) is Lebby with an 8-6 record.
Massive favorite (21+ points)
This is a category that’s more useful than you might think given how many low-major nonconference games get played each season. Sarkisian has the best record (min. 10 games) at 9-7. I’ll note that Beamer is 3-0 in this spot.
Elko is just 1-5, but he’s not the most interesting name at the bottom of this list. Smart rarely beats the number as a 21+ point favorite, covering just over 34% of the time. It’s the same idea as Smart’s ATS record against FCS opponents — he’s not interested in running up the score when he’s playing teams that are overmatched and under-resourced. That includes SEC opponents — he’s 9-18 ATS favored by 21+ in conference play (but 26-1 straight up, with the lone loss coming way back in 2019). On DraftKings, Georgia is favored by 45.5 points against Tennessee State in Week 1.
Here’s a chart showing current SEC head coaches’ ATS records throughout their careers:
SEC Head Coaches Against the Spread, CFP Era
2014–2025 · includes prior FBS head-coaching stops · Will Stein (Kentucky) has no games as an FBS head coach
Closing lines via CollegeFootballData. Pushes excluded from cover %. Games vs. FCS opponents, non-playoff bowls, and interim-coached games are excluded. * Fewer than 10 decided games — bars shown faded.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
