The phone buzzes. It’s the same text message from your buddy that you get every Saturday. Only the teams and ramification have changed.
“Hey, are you watching (insert underdog here) beat (insert favorite here)!?”
We live for the upset, that chance to rush the field and chant “over-rated” after our David fells Goliath.
The SEC is no stranger to upsets huge (cough cough The Citadel) and mild. As the 2016 season draws near, here’s a look at potential upsets during each week of the upcoming fall slate.
Remember, these are potential upsets, some bigger surprises than others. Please don’t take them as gospel or a personal assault on your team.
WEEK 1: NORTH CAROLINA OVER GEORGIA
The Kirby Smart era in Athens could get off to a rough start, courtesy of North Carolina. The Tar Heels will be without quarterback Marquise Williams and wide receiver Quinshad Davis, but Larry Fedora’s veteran squad has the potential to be even better in 2016 than its 2015 version, which claimed the school’s first Coastal Division crown. Georgia — which will be potentially breaking in a new quarterback and is seeking weapons to step-up in the passing game — could be vulnerable. The Bulldogs will have a home-field edge with the game being in Atlanta, but Smart’s defense will need to find answers for All-ACC running back Elijah Hood, a stable of talented receivers and quarterback Mitch Trubisky.
WEEK 2: ARKANSAS STATE OVER AUBURN
Jacksonville State gave Auburn a scare last year in Week 2, but don’t expect the Gamecocks to inject much of a jolt into LSU in the season’s second week. Instead, it’s Auburn on the ropes once again, this time at the hands of Arkansas State. The Red Wolves have plenty of options to possibly upgrade over Fredi Knighten with a deep roster of quarterbacks, highlighted by Pittsburgh-transfer Chad Voytik and Justice Hansen, formerly of Oklahoma. Auburn, which finished No. 11 in the SEC in pass defense, has the pieces — such as safeties Rudy Ford and Nick Ruffin — but will be learning a new defense under their third defensive coordinator in as many years.
WEEK 3: OLE MISS OVER ALABAMA
Can it happen three years in a row? And is it really an upset if it does? Yes because Ole Miss will still be ranked lower when it goes for the proverbial “turkey” with its third-straight win over Alabama. The Rebels stunned the eventual-champion Tide in the third week of the 2015 season. The Rebels get to play host to Nick Saban’s squad this year, which will have new faces under center and out of the backfield. Ole Miss will be without several key cogs but returns a roster led by quarterback Chad Kelly, that’s experienced and believes it has what it takes to win its first SEC West title.
WEEK 4: FLORIDA OVER TENNESSEE
It isn’t often that a defending divisional champ is considered an underdog, especially one riding an 11-game winning streak in a series. But incumbent SEC East title-holders Florida could very well be just that when the Gators travel to Knoxville in Week 4 to take on Tennessee. The Volunteers are the presumptive favorites to win the East in 2016, but Jim McElwain’s Gators can’t be discounted, despite the loss of the team’s leading passer, rusher and receiver. Florida’s defense will be stacked and if Butch Jones’ Vols can’t learn how to finish games — which plagued Tennessee last season — then a slip-up against the Gators isn’t so far-fetched.
WEEK 5: VANDERBILT OVER FLORIDA
With Florida coming off its upset over Tennessee (just go with it), the Gators are primed for a letdown. The upending is potentially delivered by Vanderbilt, which almost pulled off the feat in 2015. Sure, Vandy has beaten Florida just once in its past 25 tries, but the Commodores’ defense promises to be just as stout as the unit that held Jim McElwain’s squad to just nine points and under 100 yards rushing last November in the Swamp. Running back Ralph Webb and Vanderbilt finds a way into the end zone this year and pulls the upset victory at home.
WEEK 6: SOUTH CAROLINA OVER GEORGIA
Will Muschamp versus Kirby Smart has been brewing since 2000 when the Georgia alums were defensive coaches at Valdosta State. Their coaching paths will finally run head-to-head when Smart’s Bulldogs travel to South Carolina to face Muschamp’s Gamecocks. Georgia will be the favorite in the contest, but, as South Carolina has proven in the past, they’re not going to roll over to the Bulldogs, having won four of the last six games between the schools. Muschamp’s defensive acumen allows him to devise a plan to shutdown Georgia’s rushing game and pull off the upset in a season-defining win.
WEEK 7: TENNESSEE OVER ALABAMA
Other than Ole Miss — the lone team to beat Alabama last year — no other team played the Crimson Tide tighter than Tennessee. The Volunteers return just about everyone from the squad that led Alabama late in the fourth quarter before falling 19-14 in Tuscaloosa. Alabama needed a touchdown run from Derrick Henry with 2:24 to play to fend off the Vols. Nick Saban’s Tide shouldn’t experience too far a drop-off from last year’s title-winning team, but questions at quarterback and running back could make a difference against an experienced Tennessee offense. If Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara live up to the hype as the conference’s top backfield, then the Volunteers might have a chance to strike first in what could be a preview of the SEC Championship game.
WEEK 8: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE OVER MISSOURI
New Missouri coach Barry Odom might take his lumps during his inaugural season as a head coach. Among those bruises could be a tough loss to an up-and-coming Middle Tennessee State program. The Blue Raiders are led by quarterback Brent Stockstill (head coach Rick Stockstill’s son), who has a variety of returning weapons in 2016, along with Conference USA’s No. 4 overall recruiting class coming in as well. Granted, Middle Tennessee State hasn’t defeated an SEC opponent since knocking off Vanderbilt in 2005. But the Blue Raiders have developed into one of the more consistent mid-majors under Stockstill. Mizzou’s offense will be in search of an identity and if the Tigers can’t find one by Week 7, an upset on their home turf wouldn’t be the biggest surprise.
WEEK 9: NEW MEXICO STATE OVER TEXAS A&M
The entire New Mexico State roster might have to play the games’ of their lives to beat Texas A&M, but a resounding upset of the big Aggies might be what the little Aggies need to save the program. Whispers abound that New Mexico State is on the fast track to the FCS after being dropped from the Sun Belt after the 2017 season, if they can’t hack it as an Independent. They went 2-10 as an independent in 2013. But despite winning just three games last year, New Mexico State returns the cogs of an offense that posted 433.3 YPG last year, behind Larry Rose III (137.6 YPG). Texas A&M was porous against the run, finishing penultimate in the SEC in rushing defense. It’ll take a monster game from Rose III or now-healthy quarterback Tyler Rogers — plus the infusion of new defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani (formerly of Boston College) — for New Mexico State to break its 0-19 all-time record against the SEC.
WEEK 10: GEORGIA SOUTHERN OVER OLE MISS
It’ll take the perfect storm, so to speak, for Georgia Southern to walk into Oxford and beat Ole Miss, but that’s why we watch, right?
Georgia Southern might play out of the Sun Belt, but the Eagles are no pushovers, and its option is always difficult to prepare for. Despite breaking in a new coach in Tyson Summers, Georgia Southern returns the top-six rushers from the nation’s No. 1 rushing offense. That group is led by running back Matt Breida (1,608 yards, 17 TDs) and quarterback Kevin Ellison (712 rushing yards, 8 TDs).
Combine that with the Sun Belt’s top-rated rushing defense (No. 26 nationally) and Georgia Southern becomes a tough team to beat. Ole Miss is vulnerable when they can’t establish the run, evidence by the less-than-225 yards they accrued on the ground in their three losses in 2015 — including two of those losses where they rushed for less-than 110 yards.
WEEK 11: ARKANSAS OVER LSU
Bret Bielema knows how to get to LSU, as Arkansas makes it three-in-a-row over the Tigers. The upset comes on the backs of the Hogs’ defense, which has ascended back to its dominant 2014 form. Or perhaps its 2015 counterpart. The Razorbacks — who finished No. 2 in the SEC in rushing defense (No. 12 nationally) — have a knack for shutting down Leonard Fournette, holding the Heisman-hopeful to an exact 100 yards combined on the ground in two previous contests. Arkansas not only returns 11 of its top 12 tacklers from last season, but adds five-star prospect McTelvin “Sosa” Agim to its frontline of attack. Bielema has the secret to shutting down Fournette and, once again, grounds Les Miles and the Tigers.
WEEK 13: FLORIDA OVER FLORIDA STATE
An SEC East title is a nice start to the Jim McElwain era at Florida. But if the second-year head coach really wants to endear himself to the folks in The Swamp, he’ll beat rival Florida State in the regular-season finale. The Seminoles expect to reload around Heisman candidate Dalvin Cook this season, but vulnerabilities exist in the FSU armor. Rather than wilting down the stretch, McElwain’s squad gets stronger as the year progresses and finds a way to stifle Cook and earn the win in Tallahassee — the Gators’ first victory over Florida State in their past four attempts.
Editor’s Note: A previous version of the article incorrectly stated that South Carolina played Western Kentucky.
Chris Wuensch is a contributing writer for Saturday Down South. He covers South Carolina and Tennessee.
