South Carolina football: Best-case, worst-case scenarios for 2021
By Keith Farner
Published:
Because of the way the schedule unfolds, South Carolina could develop some serious momentum early in the season. As long as the Luke Doty injury situation has a positive outcome. Or another QB, perhaps Zeb Noland or Jason Brown, emerges as a bona fide replacement.
With a team built on positive messaging from Shane Beamer and a narrative around coaches and players who want to be there, from the 4 rehires Beamer had to do, to the players who transferred in, there’s plenty of rallying cry to build on.
Several Gamecocks coaches have struggled in their first season, most notably Paul Dietzel (1-9) and Lou Holtz (0-11). Others have been OK. Steve Spurrier and Brad Scott were each 7-5, and Sparky Woods was 6-4-1. It’s difficult to project Beamer being markedly better than that 6- or 7-win ceiling.
Here are the contrasting scenarios for the Gamecocks:
3 best-case scenarios
1. Early success builds confidence
Opening with Eastern Illinois at home and East Carolina on the road, the Gamecocks have a chance to be 2-0 thinking upset going to Athens. For Beamer, who has prepared for this moment nearly his entire life, and who has developed a base set of knowledge from head coaches he’s worked for, to see it pay dividends early would be huge. EIU was 1-5 last season, so this is a great building block game — especially if Doty is out. East Carolina, meanwhile, was 3-6 last season, including 3 losses at home. The Pirates, though, return 10 starters on offense and 9 on defense.
2. Luke Doty (now post-injury) is the next coming of Connor Shaw
During the first 11-2 season under Steve Spurrier in 2011, Shaw was a sophomore QB who completed 65.4% of his passes for 1,448 yards with 14 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Jake Bentley had a bit stronger sophomore campaign (2017) with 2,794 yards, with 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. As long as Doty can rehab and be healthy sooner than later, and keep his turnovers in check, he’s set up for a solid year. But 2 examples there show that he should be able to have a strong TD to interception ratio.
3. Go 8-4 and head to the Outback Bowl
The losses would be to Georgia, Texas A&M, Florida and Clemson. Most seasons, a good year ends up with toss-up games — and wins — over the likes of Tennessee, Missouri and Kentucky. Realistically in most years, it’s difficult to see the Gamecocks winning the main rival games and blue-blood division opponents. What’s more, the Aggies have won 7 straight in the permanent cross-over series. It’s Beamer’s goal to set the target to return to the years when there were winning streaks against Clemson, Georgia and Florida.
3 worst-case scenarios
1. Pedestrian play at wide receiver
There are so many possibilities at wide receiver, it’d be almost unbelievable if none of the options established themselves as a go-to target. However, for several of them, that’s been the case for at least a year. It’s a combination glass-half-empty outlook that centers on Luke Doty’s inability to get the ball downfield. He struggled in that aspect last season. (An addendum to this is Doty’s absence goes on longer, or a capable backup never develops.) If a receiver doesn’t emerge, defenses don’t have reason to respect a threat in the mold of Shi Smith or Bryan Edwards.
2. The secondary never materializes
The first glimpse of this was the news that Karon Prunty entered the transfer portal — after transferring from Kansas to South Carolina. He was 1 of 3 impressive transfers at this position and provided the optimism after so many NFL and transfer departures at the end of last season. Now he’s back in the portal. The Gamecocks haven’t been in the top 6 of the SEC in pass defense since 2016 — even with Jaycee Horn — and the young and otherwise new faces could add to that string. Most of the conference games come against experienced quarterbacks, and if SC’s talented front 7 can’t disrupt them, this questionable secondary can’t miss it.
3. The floor losses is 8 (1 loss to Clemson, 1-7 in SEC)
The road conference games are almost all automatic underdog situations, and Kentucky and Florida, for two immediate examples, have plenty of institutional knowledge of winning at Williams-Brice. And remember, for all of its troubles in recent years, Tennessee has won 2 straight over South Carolina. Of course, the ultimate salt in the wound is if Mike Bobo rolls in with Auburn and runs up a huge number after he initially committed to joining Beamer’s new staff. In another swing game, Missouri escaped last year after a bone-headed special teams play, and the year before, the Gamecocks were trounced 34-14 in a game that appeared to show promise before Ryan Hilinski was knocked off track.
The worst-case scenario is that the Gamecocks’ only SEC win is against Vanderbilt.
A former newspaper veteran, Keith Farner is a news manager for Saturday Down South.
