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SEC Football

The most important play of each SEC team’s Week 1 game

Braden Ramsey

By Braden Ramsey

Published:


College football is back!

That offseason took forever, didn’t it? I don’t know about you, but I’m happy to finally (mostly) have all the conversation about transfers, professional players and all the other chaos that has ensued since the *checks notes* Indiana Hoosiers hoisted the College Football Playoff championship trophy in January.

Curt Cignetti and Co. showed a year ago that it’s possible to take your program from the basement to the penthouse in one fell swoop these days. As a result, expectations for every SEC school are high, regardless of their 2025 record. Every conference member kicked off the 2026 season with a win — for the first time since 1997 — but victories, for most institutions, will be much harder to come by the rest of the way.

Games are listed in order of approximate start time. Plays mentioned are based on win probability added, via ESPN analytics.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. No. 25 Missouri (54-14 Missouri)

Play:ย 9:38 Q1, 3rd-and-10, Pine-Bluff 25-yard line. Austin Simmons pass complete to Shaun Terry II for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Missouri 7-0ย (+9.7% for Missouri).

Mizzou opened the renovated Faurot Field in fun fashion, rolling through Arkansas-Pine Bluff without much resistance… in the first half. After the break, the Golden Lions and Tigers played to a 14-14 draw. That drew the ire of head coach Eli Drinkwitz, who’s well aware that that effort won’t cut it on Friday in the Border War.

Author’s Note: It’s Week 1 for ESPN analytics, too. Most SEC teams were given incredibly high win probabilities pregame that the model did not accurately portray at kickoff. Nonetheless, we trudge forward with what the Worldwide Leader provides.

UTEP vs. No. 10 Oklahoma (51-0 Oklahoma)

Play: 7:27 Q1, 4th-and-6, UTEP 29-yard line. Brady Braun punts 59 yards to Oklahoma 12-yard line. Isaiah Sategna III returns for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Oklahoma 14-0 (+9.2% for Oklahoma).

Brent Venables‘ squad began to rid itself of the sour taste its 2025 CFP performance left in its mouth on Friday vs. the Miners. The Sooners’ trip to Ann Arbor, where they’ll face the Michigan Wolverines — who are… absurdly fortunate, we’ll say, to be 1-0 — is a humongous chance to pad this year’s CFP rรฉsumรฉ. Forty-nine of 50 states may be rooting for Oklahoma on Saturday, but John Mateer and Co. can’t underestimate their foe if they want to emerge victorious from the Big House.

East Carolina vs. No. 13 Alabama (48-10 Alabama)

Play: 12:36 Q2, 3rd-and-11, Alabama 13-yard line. Keelon Russell pass complete to Ryan Coleman-Williams for 58 yards to East Carolina 29-yard line. First down, Alabama (+7.4% for Alabama).

Yes, it’s only Week 1. However, the alarm bells around Ryan Coleman-Williams’ drop issues — despite 130 receiving yards — are deafening. The Crimson Tide simply can’t afford for their star wideout to come up short when Keelon Russell calls upon him. A date with the potentially frisky Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday, in Russell’s first road (and SEC) start, represents Coleman-Williams’ opportunity to re-establish himself as the top-tier playmaker people expect him to be.

Prediction Markets
Alabama vs Kentucky
Learn more about Prediction Markets
Kalshi
Alabama
79%
Kentucky
23%

Kent State vs. South Carolina (57-0 South Carolina)

Play: 12:41 Q2, 3rd-and-6, Kent State 18-yard line. LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Mazeo Bennett Jr. for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. South Carolina 15-0 (+7.0% for South Carolina).

ESPN Analytics will tell you Kent State had a 44.1% chance of winning this game at the 8:28 mark of the first quarter. In reality, that was 44.09% too high. The Gamecocks were forced to punt on their opening drive, but found the end zone on their next 8 possessions. Shane Beamer‘s team gets Towson this weekend in what should be another tune-up before beginning its SEC slate vs. Mississippi State.

Youngstown State vs. Kentucky (45-13 Kentucky)

Play:ย 13:02 Q1, 2nd-and-6, Kentucky 41-yard line. Kenny Minchey pass complete to Kenny Darby for 33 yards to Youngstown State 26-yard line. First down, Kentuckyย (+5.3% for Kentucky).

Through 60 minutes of the Will Stein Era, the Wildcats are feeling good. The defense yielding 305 yards to the Penguins isn’t ideal with Alabama on tap, but Kentucky’s offense may actually have the firepower to keep up in a potential shootout with the Crimson Tide.

Tennessee State vs. No. 3 Georgia (63-3 Georgia)

Play: 13:36 Q1, 1st-and-10, Tennessee State 48-yard line. Nate Frazier rushes for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Georgia 7-0 (+9.6% for Georgia).

The Bulldogs’ 63 points are their most in a season opener since 1941, when they beat Mercer 81-0. Kirby Smart‘s team will focus on its 8 penalties when preparing for Western Kentucky and Arkansas over the next 2 weeks.

Texas State vs. No. 5 Texas (59-7 Texas)

Play: 4:56 Q1, 4th-and-3, Texas State 40-yard line. Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 21 yards to Texas State 19-yard line. First down, Texas (+7.7% for Texas).

Saturday’s final score won’t show it, but the Longhorns may have a couple things to be concerned about under the hood ahead of their clash with Ohio State. Texas allowed Texas State to rack up 349 total yards and convert on third down 57% of the time (8-for-14). The Bobcats are a higher-end opponent than most other SEC schools faced in Week 1, but those numbers aren’t what you want to see when the country’s No. 1 team is coming to town.

Furman vs. No. 20 Tennessee (56-9 Tennessee)

Play: 10:42 Q1, 2nd-and-11, Furman 17-yard line. Faizon Brandon pass complete to Ethan Davis for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Tennessee 7-0 (+6.6% for Tennessee).

Faizon Brandon recorded 5 total touchdowns in his collegiate debut. Josh Heupel‘s offense didn’t miss a beat with the true freshman in the saddle, but we’ll learn more about the Vols’ ceiling in Atlanta against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets next week.

Baylor vs. Auburn (17-16 Auburn)

Play: 0:09 Q4, 4th-and-Goal, Auburn 5-yard line. DJ Lagway pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Two-point conversion NO GOOD. Auburn 17-16 (+21.4% for Auburn).

Alex Golesh‘s defense had 12 players on the field for the game-deciding 2-point conversion attempt… then Baylor called timeout. The Tigers won’t complain about the Bears’ mistake or walking out of Atlanta with the win. Auburn has a chance to start 4-0 before a trip to Knoxville in Week 5.

North Alabama vs. Arkansas (31-14 Arkansas)

Play: 0:36 Q1, 3rd-and-10, North Alabama 20-yard line. KJ Jackson pass complete to Ismael Cisse for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 7-0 Arkansas (+8.5% for Arkansas).

The Ryan Silverfield Era got started with a wonky game in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks out-possessed the Lions 41:25-18:35 in Week 1 and gave up just 153 total yards. They limited the North Alabama offense to 1-of-10 on third down, but only won by 17 as 40-point favorites. Arkansas recorded 42 total yards on its first 14 offensive plays and turned the ball over 3 times. Having to play in Rice-Eccles Stadium at night after that performance is… concerning.

Missouri State vs. No. 8 Texas A&M (50-0 Texas A&M)

Play: 9:32 Q1, 2nd-and-5, Missouri State 15-yard line. Marcel Reed pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 7-0 Texas A&M (+5.4% for Texas A&M).

Mike Elko‘s Aggies played exactly how you’d hope a top-10 team would play against an FCS foe to open the season. Texas A&M’s offense gained 505 total yards, picked up 35 first downs and held 43:03 time of possession. Missouri State’s offense had 67 total yards and nearly as many turnovers (3) as first downs (4). Arizona State should provide stiffer competition.

Austin Peay vs. Vanderbilt (28-9 Vanderbilt)

Play: 5:24 Q3, 4th-and-1, Austin Peay 18-yard line. Sedrick Alexander rushes for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 21-9 Vanderbilt (+8.4% for Vanderbilt).

Vandy went ball-control mode versus Austin Peay. The Commodores ran the ball 16 times on their first 2 drives against the Governors, a pair of 13-play possessions that ended in field goals. Austin Peay played Georgia to a 28-6 loss in 2025 and is a top-15 FCS team this year, so there’s no real shame in this result. That said, I’m sure Clark Lea would have appreciated more points on the board.

ULM vs. Mississippi State (62-13 Mississippi State)

Play: 12:21 Q1, 2nd-and-Goal, ULM 6-yard line. Kamario Taylor pass complete to Sanfrisco Magee for six yards, TOUCHDOWN. 7-0 Mississippi State (+4.5% for Mississippi State).

The Bulldogs racked up a whopping 762 yards of offense on Saturday night against the Warhawks. Doing so without a single turnover is incredibly impressive. Head coach Jeff Lebby‘s crew heads north for a fun nonconference date with the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Week 2.

Florida Atlantic vs. Florida (66-21 Florida)

Play: 8:41 Q1, 1st-and-10, Florida Atlantic 49-yard line. Aaron Philo pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 7-0 Florida (+10.4% for Florida).

Jon Sumrall is unbeaten as the Gators’ head coach. You laugh, but Florida faced an in-state American Conference team on the first Saturday of September a season ago and lost. The Gators get to fine tune things vs. Campbell in Week 2 before traveling to Auburn on Sept. 19.

Clemson vs. No. 11 LSU (51-10 LSU)

Play: 2:07 Q1, 3rd-and-6, Clemson 25-yard line. Chris Vizzina pass INTERCEPTED by Jordan Ross. Jordan Ross returns 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 17-3 LSU (+11.1% for LSU).

Is there anything in the world that could have prevented Clemson from getting absolutely obliterated in Baton Rouge? The weather tried to help Dabo Swinney’s team, but it only delayed the inevitable. Perhaps Louisiana Tech is a bit of a trap game ahead of Lane Kiffin‘s return to The Grove, but nobody in their right mind will forecast a Tiger loss in Week 2.

No. 24 Louisville vs. No. 9 Ole Miss (41-38 Ole Miss)

Play: 0:03 Q4, 4th-and-3, Louisville 31-yard line. Lucas Carneiro 48-yard field goal is GOOD. Ole Miss 41-38 (+31.0% for Ole Miss).

Trinidad Chambliss is really good at football. The Rebels appear to be a very good team. For better or worse, their outstanding offense and leaky defense is exactly what we saw from them in 2025. With what’s around the corner, I’m not sure any fanbase anywhere has ever cared less about a game than this weekend’s matchup vs. Charlotte.


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