Thursday Thoughts: Can LSU make a Playoff run? What’s Will Stein’s ceiling?
By Adam Spencer
Published:
It’s been an exciting, unpredictable college football season thus far, and we’re only halfway through.
Yes, while it seems like just yesterday that we were gearing up for Week 1, teams have now played half their regular-season schedules. We’ve learned a lot in that time, and the contenders are continuing to separate themselves from the pretenders.
As we hit the midway point of October, let’s touch on some of the most-interesting topics around the college football world this week:
1. Is the dream of a Playoff berth in Year 1 of the Lane Kiffin era dead?
I posted this on X (or Twitter or whatever) the other day:
Many responses said things like “it’s way too early to even entertain this.” Duh, that’s why it’s a “hypothetical.”
More responses, though, were saying there’s “absolutely no way” a 9-win team would get in the Playoff.
Never say never, y’all.
At some point, even if the Playoff stayed at 12 teams for eternity, a 9-3 team would get in. Why couldn’t it be this year? Oregon was seen as a lock prior to the season, but the Ducks are in real trouble. Indiana and Ohio State seem like locks for now, but there’s no guarantee a third team gets in at this point in time.
The ACC looks like a 1-bid league. The same could be true of the Big 12 when all is said and done.
I say all of this to say that I don’t think Lane Kiffin and the LSU Tigers are facing must-wins the rest of the way. Of course, if they do lose again (and they still have Texas and Alabama, among others, on their schedule), then they’ll need some help on Selection Sunday.
The pressure is on. But if this banged-up LSU squad can get healthy, it’s not out of the question to make the 12-team field. After all, Alabama and Texas both have to make the trip to Death Valley, which is never easy.
But this isn’t exactly the start LSU fans were hoping for when they landed the highest-profile coach on the market this offseason.
Check out our deep dive on the best prediction markets.
2. What’s the ceiling for Kentucky and Will Stein in 2026?
The Kentucky Wildcats are 1 win away from bowl eligibility this season, which would be a great accomplishment for first-year head coach Will Stein. That seems likely, since the Wildcats’ schedule still includes a visit from a struggling Vanderbilt squad.
However, with Kentucky sitting at 5-1 through 6 games, you can’t blame fans and media for thinking there might be an even higher ceiling for this team.
We’ll learn a lot about the ‘Cats this weekend, when they visit Oklahoma. The Sooners have struggled this year, especially on offense, but they did just take down No. 1 Texas in the Cotton Bowl.
Meanwhile, Kentucky has been playing with fire a bit. Winning back-to-back games by going for 2 in overtime isn’t really sustainable on a large scale, so this team is going to need to be even better on Saturday in Norman.
Kenny Minchey has been fun to watch, checking in at No. 6 in Saturday Down South writer Ethan Stone’s latest SEC QB power rankings (up 2 spots from last week).
CJ Baxter has been electric running the ball, and the Wildcats’ entire running game has been strong. But Oklahoma’s defense is elite. Win in Norman this weekend, and I’m willing to entertain 9-10 wins for this Kentucky squad.
3. My problem with ESPN’s WR rankings
An article came out from ESPN’s Bill Connelly this week in which he ranks the 60 best college football receivers of the last 50 years. It’s a great piece and Connelly is a must-read for me. But there is one major thing I take issue with.
Connelly doesn’t have Alabama legend Julio Jones in his top 60 at all! Like, as in he’s nowhere on the list. As in… his name does not appear in the rankings.
It does appear in the article though, with Connelly offering this explanation as to why Jones wasn’t included:
Quick note: This was a ridiculously hard list to make, and it required both big-time talent and big-time production. Someone like Alabama’s Julio Jones didn’t make the list because he just wasn’t asked to do enough in Tuscaloosa, and others like Florida’s Percy Harvin and Notre Dame’s Rocket Ismail didn’t make it because they were more RBs than WRs — both ended with more career rushes than receptions. Hell, even a few former Biletnikoff Award winners didn’t make the list. That’s how high the bar is.
OK. That’s fair. Even though I disagree with the premise that Jones wasn’t asked to do too much (he was the only receiver with 40+ catches and 600+ yards and 5+ receiving touchdowns for Alabama in 2010). Jones’s college stats weren’t eye-popping like, say, fellow Alabama star Amari Cooper, who was No. 27 on the list.
But!
Connelly has Georgia Tech’s Calvin Johnson ranked 9th. That’s my issue.
Here’s a comparison of Jones and Johnson’s college numbers:
- Julio Jones: 179 receptions, 2,653 yards, 15 touchdowns, 2 rushing touchdowns
- Calvin Johnson: 178 receptions, 2,927 yards, 28 touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown
There’s no question that Johnson deserves to be on the list. And he deserves to be ranked above Jones. Johnson scored significantly more touchdowns, but also played for a worse team.
But (part 2)!
To have Johnson at No. 9 and then to not have Jones on the list at all is egregious. If Johnson had been ranked No. 45, let’s say, then you could make a case that Jones’s omission makes sense.
To have Johnson in the top 10 and Jones outside the top 60 simply doesn’t make sense. Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.
4. Who is the third-best team in the Big Ten?
Ohio State and Indiana will play in Bloomington this weekend. The winner of that game will get to claim it is the best team in the Big Ten this year. The loser will be the undisputed second-best squad in the B1G.
But who is No. 3? Oregon looks lost. USC has its noticeable flaws. Northwestern has been a great story, but does anyone actually expect the Wildcats to take down Oregon, Iowa or Ohio State?
UCLA is undefeated. Why can’t the Bruins be the No. 3 team in the Big Ten? Well, they certainly have the best case, but they did just lose starting QB Nico Iamaleava for the season. That’s brutal, especially considering their backup is incredibly inexperienced.
Wisconsin avoids Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana somehow this season (18-team conferences are like that, sometimes). But I don’t think anyone would pick the Badgers as the Big Ten’s third-best team.
The choice, to me, comes down to Iowa or Nebraska, and I’m leaning Nebraska right now. The Huskers just fell flat on their faces down the stretch against Indiana last week. But they have the No. 4 scoring offense in the Big Ten currently and the No. 4 scoring defense.
Win at Autzen Stadium this weekend (no easy task, mind you) and Playoff hopes are still very much alive in Lincoln.
5. Top 5 NFL Draft QB prospects
I’m going to do a quick ranking of who I think the first 5 QBs off the board in the 2027 NFL Draft should be. I’m doing this now because it still seems like there’s a chance that a team drafts Arch Manning in Round 1 due to his last name alone.
At this point, that would be a mistake. The kind that loses a front office executive their job.
There’s a chance Manning could still develop into a legitimate Round 1 prospect, but he’s not there yet. Here is how I’d rank the current QB draft class:
- Darian Mensah, Miami — He’s elite at everything other than arm strength. He can push the ball down the field when he needs to and rarely makes mistakes.
- Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss — Chambliss is the ultimate playmaker. He has the “it” factor that means his team is never out of a game. He is among the best improvisers in college football, but also has great success within the structure of an offense.
- CJ Carr, Notre Dame — He has all the measurables and the intelligence you need to play the position. The production has been just… fine… though. If this turns into a special year for Notre Dame, though, don’t be surprised to see him rocket up draft boards.
- Austin Simmons, Mizzou — He used to be a pitcher, so the arm strength is there. He has shown much better ball security this year after throwing 4 interceptions in 2 games at Ole Miss last year. He needs to develop some more consistency, but he’s trending toward being a Round 1 talent.
- Julian Sayin, Ohio State — He’s accurate and throws a nice ball, but through no fault of his own, he’s pretty reliant on a generational wide receiver in Jeremiah Smith. He needs to have better performances in Ohio State’s biggest games, though, to generate true Round 1 buzz.
Of note: ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. has Drew Mestemaker of Oklahoma State as his No. 1 QB prospect. Absolutely wild. Settle down, guy. Mestemaker is trending up, but he just hasn’t been tested enough against top-end defenses to warrant being anyone’s No. 1 QB prospect yet.
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Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
