Vanderbilt and Texas will go head-to-head in a top-25 matchup in Austin on Saturday afternoon.
Both the Commodores and Longhorns are still alive for a spot in the College Football Playoff. A loss for Texas would likely knock it out of the race for a CFP berth. Vanderbilt could survive another defeat, but would be out of margin-for-error for the remainder of the year.
Vanderbilt vs. Texas spread
Here’s a look at the up-to-date betting odds for this game:
Here’s what you should know about both of these teams before placing a bet on this game:
Vanderbilt football notes
- Vanderbilt has won back-to-back ranked games since losing to Alabama. The Commodores have 3 top-25 wins this season, which is the most for the program in any single season since at least 2000.
- Diego Pavia has joined the Heisman Trophy conversation, but his efficiency as a passer has waned during SEC play. He’s averaging just 6.4 yards per attempt over his last 3 games.
- Vanderbilt has moved to a more run-heavy offense as the season has gone along. Pavia has only attempted 41 passes over his last 2 games. Pavia has 25 rush attempts and 11 scrambles (per PFF) over the same span.
- Pavia is one of 3 qualified SEC quarterbacks with a pressure-to-sack ratio below 10% this season, per PFF. The others are Joey Aguilar and Marcel Reed. Pavia is as good as anyone in the country at avoiding negative plays. He also leads all SEC quarterbacks with 16 big-time throws this season.
- Vanderbilt’s backfield has been tremendous this season with Sedrick Alexander and MK Young leading the way. Both have rushing success rates north of 50% this year, per Game on Paper.
- Vanderbilt’s defense has improved recently after a slow start to the season. The Commodores are top-20 in EPA-per-rush defense and are up to 74th in pass defense success rate, per Game on Paper.
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Texas football notes
- Texas quarterback Arch Manning remains questionable for this game. He suffered a concussion in last week’s win over Mississippi State in overtime.
- Even when healthy, Manning has not been good this season aside from the Oklahoma game. Among qualified SEC quarterbacks, Manning is below average in yards per attempt (7.6) and turnover-worthy play rate (4.2%).
- Texas’s offensive line has been a big disappointment this season. No SEC quarterback has been pressured more times than Manning (116).
- If Manning can’t go, Matthew Caldwell is expected to get the start. Caldwell has been good in limited snaps this season and did throw the game-winning touchdown pass against Mississippi State in overtime after Manning went out of the game. He’s 8-of-11 for 85 yards this season.
- There’s a larger sample size of Caldwell’s performance at Troy last season. Per PFF, here are Caldwell’s stats against pressure in 2024: 23-of-54 for 246 yards, 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He took 10 sacks and threw the ball away 11 times.
- Texas has really struggled to run the ball this season. Leading rusher Tre Wisner has a 39% rushing success rate, per Game on Paper.
- Texas’s defense ranks 12th nationally in EPA-per-play allowed and 36th in success rate.
- Texas safety Michael Taaffe did not play against Mississippi State due to a thumb injury but could return vs. the Commodores. Taaffe is Texas’s highest-graded defensive player by a significant margin per PFF, so his status is something to watch out for in the lead up to kickoff.
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Vanderbilt vs. Texas picks
Here are 2 best bets for this game:
I like Texas to win the 4th quarter. Vanderbilt has been running out of gas when it gets to the final stanza of these SEC games. The Commodores are averaging just 3.59 yards per play in the fourth quarter against SEC opponents this season. That ranks 13th out of 16 SEC teams. The defense hasn’t been great either, giving up 4.88 yards per play in the fourth. Vandy has been out-gained on a yards-per-play basis in every fourth quarter this season against SEC opponents. I like Texas to cover the full-game spread, too, but I’m an even bigger fan of this prop.
Pick: Texas +0.5 in the fourth quarter (-140 on DraftKings)
I think Parker Livingstone will find the end zone on Saturday. Livingstone is a distant third among Texas receivers in terms of overall receptions behind Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore. However, the 6-4 Livingstone is arguably Texas’s top option in the red zone. He’s caught 6 passes in the red area so far this season — no other Texas pass catcher has more than 2 such receptions. He also has 3 catches on plays that began inside the 10-yard line, which equals all other Texas players for the season. I don’t think the market is fully capturing the degree to which Livingstone is Texas’s preferred weapon when it gets close to the end zone.
Pick: Parker Livingstone anytime TD (+300 on BetMGM)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
