It’s almost time for the 2026 college football season.
Most of the best sports betting apps have now posted full markets for early-season games. This story will survey some potential opportunities among the best-available college football betting lines for Week 0 and Week 1.
College football betting analysis
Let’s break down 4 game from this slate:
Auburn (-7) vs. Baylor
Look, I think it’s fine to be skeptical of what Auburn will be this season in SEC play. Byrum Brown is dynamic, but he’s unproven at this level — as is much of the roster which also spent last season at South Florida with Brown and Alex Golesh.
But Baylor is not close to an SEC-caliber team. The Bears’ defense is expected to be dreadful — they’re 87th in SP+ preseason rankings. The offense is heavily dependent on a bounce-back season for DJ Lagway. Even if Lagway is better this season, I’m not sure Baylor’s offense will have a prolific day against an Auburn defense that returns plenty of continuity from 2025.
I wouldn’t go as far as to say this line should be double digits, but I expected it to be -8.5 or 9.5 in favor of the Tigers.
Pick: Auburn -7 (-110 on DraftKings)
Oklahoma State (-12.5) at Tulsa
Oklahoma State put up some truly despicable efficiency metrics in 2025 as it sunsetted the Mike Gundy era in Stillwater. The Cowboys were on quit watch early in the season after a 69-3 loss to Oregon. OSU also had to play virtually the entire season with a backup quarterback, further dooming its offense to among the worst in FBS.
But Oklahoma State made a strong hire this offseason by bringing in Eric Morris from North Texas. Now, you never know how a hire will translate, but Morris has a real track record of success at places that aren’t exactly easy to win at. He delivered UNT its first-ever double-digit win season last year and previously led Incarnate Word to a 10-win season as head coach.
Morris also brought a few key transfers with him to Stillwater, notably quarterback Drew Mestemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins. They were prolific at North Texas last season and had no shortage of potential suitors in the portal, but chose to follow Morris to OK State.
Tulsa is entering its second season with head coach Tre Lamb. The Golden Hurricane went 4-8 last season, including a 19-12 win over the Cowboys in Stillwater. Quarterback Baylor Hayes returns, though much of Tulsa’s starting defense in 2026 is expected to be filled by incoming transfers.
I’m not at all convinced that Tulsa is talented enough to hang with a fully-motivated Oklahoma State team. And while this game will be played on Tulsa’s home field, you can bet this stadium will feel more like an Oklahoma State home game. Tulsa has the smallest enrollment of any FBS program and there are thousands of OSU grads and fans who reside in Oklahoma’s second-largest city.
Pick: Oklahoma State -12.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
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North Carolina vs. TCU (total of 49.5)
Note: This game will be played in Ireland during Week 0, not Week 1
I’m straying into the total market for this pick. I think the total of 49.5 for North Carolina vs. TCU is too high. Both of these teams have new quarterbacks this year with Billy Edwards taking over for UNC and TCU still to conduct its fall camp QB battle to replace Josh Hoover.
UNC did hire Bobby Petrino this offseason, which may be why this game’s total is as high as it is. Petrino is still an elite offensive coordinator (Arkansas was 7th nationally in yards per play last season despite a 2-10 record) so there’s a chance he schemes up a few big plays and sinks this bet.
But both of these defenses are solid (both in SP+’s preseason top 40) and the quarterback concerns are enough for me to think we won’t see this game get to 50. I especially like the play since this game will be played in Dublin, Ireland, where we’ve seen weather have a big (and negative) impact on scoring in recent years. Most notably, last year Iowa State and Kansas State played a 24-21 game on a dreary, windy day in Ireland.
Pick: Under 49.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Louisville (+6.5) vs. Ole Miss
This is a neutral-site contest in Week 1 that will be played in Nashville. I expect the public to be too optimistic about the Rebels entering the 2026 season given their run to the semifinals last season and the return of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss.
While Chambliss is back along with running back Kewan Lacy, there’s not much continuity otherwise on this Ole Miss roster. They have a mostly-new wide receiver corps and offensive coaching staff led by new OC John David Baker. Defensively, the Rebels are expected to start at least a half-dozen incoming transfers. The ceiling is still high, but I think the floor for this Ole Miss team is considerably lower than many are giving credit for.
Louisville also has some questions, though I think the experience of Jeff Brohm versus Pete Golding may come into play in this matchup. The Cardinals signed former Ohio State quarterback Lincoln Kienholz out of the portal this offseason — Kienholz isn’t well-known, but he’s a great athlete who reportedly pushed star QB Julian Sayin during last fall’s QB battle in Columbus. Kienholz’s pedigree combined with Brohm’s penchant for QB development has me optimistic about what the Cardinals could be on that side of the ball.
Like Ole Miss, Louisville is a top-30 team in SP+’s preseason rankings and should not be overlooked in this spot. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Louisville win outright and I think 6.5 points is too many to give.
Pick: Louisville +6.5 (-104 on FanDuel)
Not in a legal betting state? You can still get in on the action for college football season on prediction markets like Kalshi! Here’s a Kalshi promo code to help you get started.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
