Week 9 SEC Primer: As the walls close in on Brian Kelly, LSU braces for surging Texas A&M

Everything you need to know about the Week 9 SEC slate, all in one place. (A bold • indicates Matt Hinton’s pick ATS.)

Game of the Week: Texas A&M (-2.5) at LSU

The stakes: At this point on the calendar, any given edition of A&M vs. LSU stands to set the course for the rest of both teams’ seasons. Winner enters November on the Playoff track, as ever; the loser, with their back against the wall. But this particular edition also looms as a potential turning point for both head coaches’ tenures.

For Brian Kelly, there’s no getting around the possibility that Saturday night could turn out to be a point of no return. If that seems a little dramatic for the coach of a team that was ranked No. 4 in the country less than a month ago — not to mention a coach with a $53 million buyout — well, yeah. Have you been paying attention to the college football hot seat lately? These are dramatic times in the profession. And dramatic mood swings have emerged as a recurring theme of Kelly’s tenure.

Consider how differently LSU’s big September wins over Clemson and Florida look now, with Clemson nursing a losing record in ACC play and Florida looking for a new head coach, than they did at the time. It was immediately after the Florida game, a 20-10 decision in which LSU’s offense managed a single touchdown, that Kelly went off on a reporter who dared to lead off the post-game presser following a win with a question about the offense’s struggles. That question has aged a lot better than the tirade it inspired. Not only have the Tigers lost 2 of their past 3 conference games in the meantime at the hands of Ole Miss and (ugh) Vanderbilt; with A&M on tap and a road trip to Alabama on deck, they’re in serious danger of reprising last year’s 3-game losing streak against A&M, Bama and Florida at the same stage of the season. There was open speculation about Kelly’s job security then, too, exacerbated by the fact that in the midst of that skid he lost a commitment from the No. 1 recruit in the country. For a few weeks there, it really felt like the walls were closing in.

A year later, what has changed? LSU pulled out of the skid to win its last 3 in 2024, and opened this season 4-0. Yet here they are again, season on the line as they stare down the barrel of another rapid descent from the top 10 to irrelevance. How many times can this scenario play itself out before a bunch of disgruntled boosters decide that obscene buyout is worth it? There’s only one way for Kelly to avoid finding out: Win on Saturday night.

For Mike Elko, the pressure runs in the opposite direction. Texas A&M is 7-0 for the first time in 30 years, 4-0 in SEC play for the first time since joining the conference, and boasts its best AP ranking (No. 3) at this point in the season or later since 1975. The Aggies passed their first big road test, a come-from-behind, 41-40 win at Notre Dame in Week 3, and haven’t trailed after the first quarter in any other game. If they’re not thinking big already, a primetime win in Baton Rouge would certainly grant them permission.

At the same time, it would also serve as a reminder not to take anything for granted. Last year’s win over LSU, a 38-23 final in College Station punctuated by a 31-point second half, seemed to crack open the possibilities. A&M climbed into the top 10 following the win with visions of a Playoff run and a potential SEC championship in its eye. Instead, the Aggies got blown out of their next game at South Carolina and limped to a 1-4 finish, going out unranked and undistinguished in all-too-familiar fashion for A&M fans who endured similar November fadeouts under Kevin Sumlin and Jimbo Fisher.

All indications so far are that this team is better equipped to seize its opportunity in Elko’s second season than the ’24 team, despite the benefit of an exceedingly friendly conference slate to date. (A&M’s first 4 victims, Auburn, Mississippi State, Florida and Arkansas, are a combined 2-12 in SEC play.) The Aggies are more balanced, significantly more explosive, and, with the emergence of redshirt sophomore QB Marcel Reed, more settled behind center. In a chaotic season across the conference and the country, why not A&M? The pieces are in place, finally, for a serious push. Just how serious, we’re all about to find out together.

When Texas A&M has the ball: Can LSU put the game on Marcel Reed’s arm?

Reed was the unlikely star of last year’s win over LSU, coming off the bench midway through the 3rd quarter to replace a struggling Conner Weigman. The turnaround was instantaneous: In just a few minutes’ worth of action, Reed accounted for 132 total yards, 3 touchdowns (all rushing), and A&M’s longest completion of the night (54 yards). It’s been his job since, and he’s rewarded his coach’s confidence by consistently hitting his marks as both a runner and a passer.

Don’t be fooled by Reed’s reputation as a dual-threat. He is a productive runner, as LSU found out the hard way last year. But he’s improved as a passer, as well, coming in ranked among the SEC leaders for the season in yards per attempt (8.8), touchdowns (15) and passer rating (156.0). The Aggies made a significant investment in upgrading the talent level at wide receiver, bringing in big-ticket transfers Mario Craver (Mississippi State) and KC Concepcion (NC State) via the portal; they currently rank 1-2 in the SEC in receiving yards vs. FBS opponents.

The question mark is how Reed will react under less-than-ideal circumstances. He has operated in mostly balmy conditions so far, benefiting from a veteran o-line, steady ground game, and comfortable leads on the scoreboard. To his credit, on the one occasion Reed has faced adversity, at Notre Dame, he led a pair of 4th-quarter scoring drives to pull off the upset. The backfield will be shorthanded on Saturday night due to a lingering ankle injury to starting running back Le’Veon Moss. There’s no shortage of candidates to keep the chains moving on the ground, but if Reed is good enough to make a habit out of rallying the team from behind on the road, LSU would love to make him prove it.

When LSU has the ball: Can the Tigers protect Garrett Nussmeier?

It was difficult to separate Nussmeier’s struggles in last week’s 31-24 loss at Vanderbilt from the Tigers’ glaring issues up front. The starting left tackle, Tyree Adams, left the game due to injury in the first quarter, in the midst of an eventual touchdown drive; from that point on, LSU only reached the end zone once more over the final 3 quarters, as the result of what can only be described as a fluke play that resulted in a 62-yard touchdown.

Credit to Zavion Thomas for keeping the spark alive, however briefly, but Nussmeier spent most of his afternoon in Nashville running for his life with not much else to show for it. He was under duress on 13 of his 30 drop-backs, per Pro Football Focus, which chalked up the majority of those pressures to Adams’ backup of the left side, DJ Chester, and the regular starter on the right, Weston Davis. But then, he didn’t fare much better when kept clean, averaging a meager 4.5 yards per attempt on an average depth of target of 3.5 yards. He missed on his only attempt of 20+ air yards, settling for a heavy diet of screens that accomplished little. Vandy dominated time of possession in the second half, sending the Tigers home on a pair of meek 4th-quarter punts following back-to-back 3-and-outs to close the game.

Adams has already been ruled out against Texas A&M, and coaches have seen enough from Chester. Instead, they’ll turn to a true freshman, Carius Curne, who will make his 2nd career start and first on the blindside. The guy he’ll be facing on the other side of the line of scrimmage? SEC sack leader and aspiring first-rounder Cashius Howell.

Put it this way, this is a very bad night to have a rushing attack that ranks next-to-last in the SEC.

X-factor: LSU’s run defense

The other significant injury news for the Tigers concerns the resident tackle machine, junior LB Whit Weeks, who is doubtful to play for the second week in a row as he nurses an ankle injury. In his absence, Vanderbilt piled up 239 yards rushing on 5.3 per carry and amassed a 13-minute advantage in time of possession.

Notably, the Commodores’ leading rusher in that game was Heisman hopeful QB Diego Pavia, who ran for 91 yards (excluding sacks) and a pair of touchdowns. Corralling athletic quarterbacks has been a persistent problem for Kelly’s teams over the years, including last year’s loss at A&M after Reed replaced the lethargic Weigman. The Tigers seemed clearly unprepared for his mobility in that game. This time around, they have no excuse, especially with a healthy Harold Perkins Jr. back in the fold.

The verdict …

How much stock do you put in the unholy aura of Saturday night in Tiger Stadium? Death Valley has earned the handle over the years as one of the most hostile venues in America for a visiting team after sundown, but it is not typically the only thing LSU has going for it in a big game. The Tigers are limping into a must-win date with an underachieving quarterback, an unsettled o-line, a suddenly flagging defense missing its best player, and a sinking feeling about the direction of both the season and the program. This is a prove-it date for Texas A&M, too, whose track record with an opportunity to take the next step is not very inspiring. But the Aggies have been steady by comparison, and resilient in the one situation where they’ve had to be in South Bend. Maybe that says more about the friendly conference slate to date than it does about their prospects going forward. Or, maybe, they’re as good as advertised.

Prediction: • Texas A&M 27 | LSU 22

Ole Miss at Oklahoma (-5.5)

The next step in Ole Miss’ ascent from upstart to contender: Winning a big game in hostile territory. The Rebels are 1-6 under Lane Kiffin in true road games vs. ranked opponents, the lone win coming in a 2023 trip to then-No. 24 Tulane. They seemed well on their way to checking that box last week, sprinting to a 35-26 lead at Georgia through 3 quarters; instead, they abruptly turned into pumpkins in the 4th, giving up 17 unanswered points as the Bulldogs tightened their grip like an older sibling reminding his feisty kid brother exactly where he stands. Even with a reasonably competitive loss on Saturday, Ole Miss should still have a gilded path to the Playoff if it takes care of its business against by far the league’s friendliest November lineup (South Carolina, The Citadel and Florida at home, Mississippi State on the road). Still, it would be reassuring to head off the one potential argument that could wreck that assumption before it has a chance to take root.

Oklahoma (6-1) has the opposite problem, schedule-wise: Saturday’s date is the first of 5 straight against currently ranked teams, including back-to-back trips to Tennessee and Alabama on deck. If the Sooners stand any chance of surviving and advancing against that gauntlet, it will be by virtue of the defense, a fully operational Brent Venables unit that leads the SEC in nearly every relevant category except takeaways. Given the current state of affairs at Texas and South Carolina (see below), it’s safe to say Ole Miss’ offense is the best the Sooners have faced, probably by a wide margin. As much as they would love to see John Mateer rekindle some of the spark that had him briefly atop the Heisman odds in September, his 3 interceptions in a wipeout Week 7 loss to the Longhorns in the Red River Rivalry are fresher in mind. His first priority on Saturday: Don’t make things any harder for the D than they already are.

Prediction: Oklahoma 24 | • Ole Miss 20

Missouri at Vanderbilt (-2.5)

Vanderbilt’s offense is not going to set any records for tempo, but what the Commodores lack in urgency they more than make up for in efficiency. The deeper you dive statistically, the better they look. Per efficiency guru Brian Fremeau, the ‘Dores rank No. 1 nationally in points per drive, averaging 4.1 points in non-garbage-time possessions vs. FBS opponents; they also come in 2nd in available yards and possession efficiency, and 5th in yards per play, at 7.5 yards a pop. Per advanced stats site gameonpaper.com, Vandy is among the nation’s best in success rate (2nd) and EPA per play (4th), among a slew of other metrics. It’s converting on 3rd down (54.1%) and scoring touchdowns in the red zone (80.7%) at a steadier clip than any other offense in the SEC.

Anyway, there’s not going to be a test on the vagaries of calculating EPA. If you tuned in to last week’s landmark, 31-24 win over LSU — featuring 4 extended touchdown drives that collectively drained more than 25 minutes off the clock — you don’t need a glossary to get the gist. Diego Pavia is on the cusp of breaking through as a legitimate Heisman candidate, and with a repeat performance against another ranked visitor we can officially welcome Vanderbilt to the November CFP picture.

For its part, Missouri’s Playoff hopes are still very much alive, too, and its offense is still faring almost as well on paper as Vandy’s. But not nearly as well as it was a couple of weeks ago, before a couple of deflating outings against Alabama and Auburn. The Tigers were competitive in a losing effort against Bama, and survived (barely) its first road test of the season last week in double overtime. In the process, though, they’ve struggled to sustain their September success on the ground. The Crimson Tide didn’t exactly stuff the run in Week 7, but did dominate possession, forcing Mizzou into comeback mode for essentially the entire second half. Auburn did stuff the run, limiting workhorse Ahmad Hardy to a season-low 58 yards on just 2.4 per carry. QB Beau Pribula dropped back 47 times, a red flag for a decidedly run-first offense, and threw two interceptions for the second week in a row.

It says something about something that the Tigers managed to escape with all their goals intact. Unfortunately, in this case exactly what it says probably has more to do with Auburn’s eagerness to shoot itself in the foot. If Mizzou wants to look forward to playing meaningful football after the weather turns, it starts with keeping Hardy on track to 1,000 yards rushing and Pribula in his comfort zone.

Prediction: • Vanderbilt 28 | Missouri 23

Alabama (-12.5) at South Carolina

Nothing is going right for South Carolina’s offense right now: The Gamecocks can’t run the ball, can’t protect LaNorris Sellers, can’t convert on 3rd down, and have accrued more negative yardage on sacks than any other FBS team. It’s hard to watch. But the most disappointing piece of the puzzle remains the ongoing inability to get super freak wideout Nyck Harbor involved on a regular basis. After 2 1/2 seasons of waiting patiently for his enormous potential to come to fruition, Carolina fans are glancing nervously at their watches.

It’s not that Harbor has been forgotten; it might actually be less frustrating if he had. Instead, the Gamecocks’ attempts to feed him have produced a couple of highlight-worthy plays (most notably a 64-yard bomb from Sellers in the opener against Virginia Tech) and not much else on anything like a consistent basis. Since the opener, he has just one reception on a throw of 20+ air yards and one touchdown, a playground-style, 4th-and-goal reception that accounted for South Carolina’s only points in last week’s 26-7 loss at Oklahoma. Altogether, Harbor was targeted 6 times against the Sooners, hauling in 4of them … for a grand total of 22 yards.

Again, there are more pressing issues, beginning up front with a thoroughly overmatched offensive line. (Not an especially young one, either.) Sellers’ failure to launch is impossible to separate from the fact that he’s running for his life on literally half of his dropbacks, per PFF, which has ripple effects throughout the offense. At some point, the only way to keep the receivers involved is to toss them a bunch of quick stuff out of desperation. Still, the Gamecocks opened the season with their highest expectations in more than a decade based largely on the idea that a couple of über talents like Sellers and Harbor making the leap would be enough to make up for the lack of playmakers around them. With one or both likely on their way out at year’s end, the time for making good is running out fast.

Prediction: • Alabama 31 | South Carolina 13

Texas (-7.5) at Mississippi State

Texas fans scanning the schedule before the season probably didn’t think twice about this game. At this point, though, if it’s not setting off alarms it should be. The Longhorns have have not traveled well, to put it mildly, losing their first 2 road trips at Ohio State and Florida and barely escaping with their season intact last week in an overtime slog at Kentucky. Arch Manning has looked so lost/broken/secretly injured that Steve Sarkisian fielded questions last week about whether he’d considered sending the preseason Heisman favorite to the bench. The shorthanded, shambolic o-line has arguably been worse. All 4 Texas touchdowns in Columbus and Gainesville came with the ‘Horns already trailing by 2 scores; their only touchdown in Lexington was set up by a punt return inside the UK 10-yard line.
 
Meanwhile, Mississippi State is past ready to put its 2-year, 15-game SEC losing streak to bed. The Bulldogs established some dark-horse cred in a Week 2 upset over Arizona State, which also reinforced Starkville’s reputation as a kind of Bermuda Triangle. In conference play, they’ve already threatened to snap the streak against Tennessee, in an eventual overtime loss in Week 5, and Florida, where the offense was within range of a game-winning field goal in Week 8 when QB Blake Shapen threw a game-ending pick instead. Eventually they’re gonna beat somebody, probably sooner rather than later. The Longhorns, who haven’t faced the cowbells since the first leg of a home-and-home in 1991, should not dismiss the possibility that it could be them.

Prediction: Texas 24 | • Miss. State 19

Tennessee (-7.5) at Kentucky

Tennessee’s pass rush is arguably the strength of the team, but it was a no-show against Alabama, rarely laying a hand on Ty Simpson and failing to record a sack for the first time this year. (The Vols’ 26 sacks going into the game were tied for the FBS lead.) Kentucky’s struggling o-line presents an opportunity to resume destruction. The Wildcats’ starting tackles, Group of 5 transfers Shiyazh Pete (New Mexico State) and Alex Wollschlaeger (Bowling Green), have plainly struggled against SEC edge rushers, allowing a combined 36 QB pressures and 5 sacks on the season, per PFF. Pete, in particular, was repeatedly posterized in Week 8 by Texas’ Collin Simmons, whose 3 sacks went a long way toward keeping the score within reach on an anemic night for the UT offense.

Of course, Simmons is going to be posterizing much higher-compensated tackles than Pete for many years to come. Tennessee doesn’t boast an individual star with his surplus of juice. But between Joshua Josephs, Caleb Herring, Dominic Bailey and Tyre West, there is more than enough to go around as the Vols extend their winning streak over Kentucky to 5.

Prediction: • Tennessee 29 | Kentucky 16

Auburn at Arkansas (-2.5)

Stylistically, these teams could hardly be more different: In one corner, arguably the league’s worst offense; in the other, unquestionably the league’s worst defense. One side built for slugfests, the other for shootouts. In SEC play, the average combined point total for both teams in Auburn games is a meager 34.3 ppg, lowest in the conference. In Arkansas games, it’s 76.0 ppg, easily the highest.

In terms of the trajectories of their respective seasons, though, they’re on nearly identical tracks. Between them, the Tigers and Razorbacks are a combined 0-7 in conference play, with all 7 losses coming at the hands of ranked opponents. (Note that there’s only 1 shared opponent in the mix, Texas A&M.) More important, all 7 have been competitive decisions that were easy to imagine going the other way.

Arkansas’ 3 SEC losses have been decided by a combined 12 points, with an excruciating, 1-point loss at Memphis thrown in for good measure. Auburn’s 4 SEC losses have been decided by 29 points, or roughly a touchdown per game, but have usually felt even closer — the Tigers led in the second half against Oklahoma, Georgia and Missouri, only falling to the Sooners in the final 5 minutes and to Mizzou in double overtime. The combination of untimely turnovers, blown opportunities, and dubious reffing that has brought them to this point could inspire hours of aggrieved podcasting, and has.

The big difference, of course, is that Arkansas has already fired Sam Pittman, emotionally punting on the rest of the season. All the Razorbacks have at stake is Bobby Petrino‘s bid for the full-time job and QB Taylen Green‘s draft stock. Auburn, on the other hand, remains very much in the throes of speculation over the fate of Hugh Freeze, who midway through Year 3 is a dismal 5-15 in SEC play and 1-12 vs. ranked opponents. The silver lining is a manageable schedule over the coming weeks that presents an opportunity for the Tigers to build some momentum heading into the Iron Bowl. Freeze would love to get one last shot at saving his bacon against the Crimson Tide in Jordan-Hare Stadium, where Auburn always gives Bama all it can handle. If he’s going to make it that far, though, he’s got to start stacking some Ws, starting in Fayetteville.

Prediction: • Auburn 31 | Arkansas 26

Scoreboard

Week 8 record: 6-2 straight-up | 2-6 vs. spread
Season record: 68-13 straight-up | 31-45 vs. spread

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.