Coaching turnover happens annually in college football, particularly in the win-hungry SEC.
In 2015, it was an especially busy offseason in the East with Mark Richt, Gary Pinkel and Steve Spurrier all stepping aside for Kirby Smart, Barry Odom and Will Muschamp, respectively.
What will future offseasons bring? Who will be the first SEC East coach to leave his position?
I don’t think any of three aforementioned coaches are going anywhere, no matter how 2016 turns out for their programs.
That leaves four coaches, and Jim McElwain doesn’t seem like a potential option unless he decides to leave Florida. So who’s the first to go in the dog-eat-dog world of coaching: Butch Jones, Derek Mason or Mark Stoops?
Vanderbilt has regressed in the first two post-James Franklin years, and Mason has a lot of work to do to convince people Vanderbilt can truly compete in the SEC. This probably isn’t fair to Vanderbilt, but Franklin likely is safe because the outside expectations aren’t as grand. Unless a coach is ruining a program’s reputation, or not winning any games at all, he likely won’t lose his job. Plus, Mason led Vanderbilt to an exceptional defensive effort in 2015, something that was overlooked as Georgia and Florida complained about their lackluster offenses.
Butch Jones figures to be the most logical choice, but that’s only if he falls short of reaching his own expectations. Apparently high school prospects think he’ll reach them too, considering the best of the best have been accepting scholarships to play for Jones since he became the Volunteers’ head coach.
If Tennessee has national success this season, Jones could become the most likely SEC coach to be in his role for a decade. This is a make-or-break season for Jones, but Tennessee has to turn the corner eventually, and this seems to be the season Jones has laid enough bricks to protect his job long-term.
So, with that, Stoops is the SEC East coach with the highest probability of not being around come bowl season.
Stoops has almost created this situation himself, compiling some of the best recruiting classes in recent Kentucky history. That isn’t changing in the upcoming 2017 class either, which is why it might scare the Wildcats athletic department from going in a different direction.
But Kentucky needs to cash in on its recruiting success with a bowl trip. Quickly.
If it doesn’t happen this season, Stoops might have a replacement come 2017.
