Without bye week improvements, Gators stand little chance against mighty Georgia
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GAINESVILLE — Florida-Georgia week.
If you grew up a college football in the South, you know what that means. When I was a kid, the idea of attending a Florida-Georgia game was on par with the North Pole as a magical destination. Instead of Santa Claus, the Gator Bowl and then Alltel Stadium had Steve Spurrier and the mighty Gators and junkyard Dawgs.
Every year, in late October or early November, the Gators and the Bulldogs descend on Jacksonville for the most bitter SEC rivalry this side of the Iron Bowl. Neutral field, national television, huge SEC and recruiting implications and a year’s worth of bragging rights between two fan bases that dislike each other so much they can’t even agree on how many times the game has been played (Florida says this will be meeting 95, Georgia says 96).
The institutions don’t want it called “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” anymore, but that’s what the game on the banks of the St. John’s River is, no matter the nomenclature. The revelry begins as early as Wednesday night, and for the winner, the party lasts well into the thin line between Saturday night and Sunday morning.
The favored team traditionally draws the larger crowd, but when the Bulldogs are the favorites, as they certainly will be this season, they begin, as the late great Larry Munson once said, “to fill up those condominiums on Amelia and St. Simon’s and Jekyll Island” four days early. And if they win, well, I’ll let Munson tell it with one of the greatest calls in the history of SEC football.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjNxWAdR_sQ
This year’s meeting is set up to be nothing more than a coronation, a changing of the guard at the top of the SEC East in only Year 2 under Georgia head coach Kirby Smart. Georgia fans hope it is more, of course. They want an emphatic rout that changes the tenor and tide of a rivalry dominated by Florida for over a quarter-century. They long for a return to the pre-Spurrier days, where it was so often Florida fans who saw their visions of glory shattered and their hearts broken in this rivalry game. They believe that this year they’ll get it, with an undefeated football team roaring into Jacksonville to face a wounded, reeling 3-3 Gators squad.
On paper, there’s little reason to believe Georgia fans won’t get their wish and claim their rout.
Behind a power running game, competent quarterback play and a fast, physical defense, Smart has returned to his alma mater and delivered. In only his second year in charge, he has constructed a football team built like the glorious Vince Dooley UGA teams of the 1970s and ’80s. Those teams captured four SEC titles between 1976-1982 and contended for multiple national championships, winning one in 1980.
Georgia is overwhelmingly better than Florida statistically, especially strength on strength.
The Bulldogs rank 10th nationally in rushing offense, averaging 5.77 yards a carry. The Gators struggle to stop the run, ranking 47th. The Bulldogs stifle the run, ranking fourth nationally in rushing defense. The “strength” of a Gators offense that ranks 83rd nationally in S&P+ offensive efficiency is the run game, but Florida is actually a below-average running team, ranking 61st in rushing offense.
Georgia is healthier, too. While a handful of reserves are out, star receiver Terry Godwin is back from injury, as is key defensive lineman Trenton Thompson. Florida, on the other hand, will play in Jacksonville without as many as 18 scholarship players, including senior defensive end Jordan Sherit, the third Gators senior lost for the season due to an injury.
Then there’s the whole competent quarterback thing. There’s an idea floating around that Jake Fromm is limited and at some point this season, he’ll need to win a game with his arm. Fair. But against a Gators defense that has produced just one turnover in its past 17 quarters of football, there’s not much evidence that game will occur in Jacksonville.
Florida, meanwhile, continues to be limited at the quarterback position, with highly-touted redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks struggling to show even marginal improvement over his first six contests as the Gators’ signal-caller. The Gators have thrown only four touchdown passes all season — less than triple-option offenses Navy and Georgia Tech — and only three of those were tossed by Franks.
The Gators rank 96th nationally in scoring and 105th in third-down offense, and now will face easily the best defense they’ve seen since Week 1, when Don Brown’s Michigan unit held the Gators’ offense to a measly field goal.
Put plainly, this year’s version of Florida-Georgia has all the makings of a colossal mismatch.
Sometimes, and especially in a rivalry game, being given very little chance is, at least in theory, highly motivating. And there’s little doubt Florida, which will play as a double-digit underdog in this game for the first time in almost two decades, will find extra motivation in being written off and in trying to save a season, and perhaps a coaching staff.
But playing hard hasn’t been a problem for Jim McElwain’s Gators.
The Gators can play as hard as they want in Jacksonville and it won’t matter if they don’t play better.
The Gators have played awfully hard, mostly penalty-free football for two weeks and lost two home games anyway, to LSU and Texas A&M teams that, at least on paper, aren’t anywhere near the quality of this Georgia team.
What they haven’t done is play well for 60 minutes.
On defense, this young football team needs to tackle better. The loss of All-SEC safety Marcell Harris was brutal, but there’s no excuse for being 11th in the SEC in tackling percentage. They also need takeaways. One in 17 quarters won’t cut it, especially with an average-at-best offense.
On offense, they need to protect the passer better, call better plays, get open more, hit the open receiver more often, and convert on third downs at a higher rate. And that’s just a start.
Florida has shown character playing hard in a season that has to date seen more than its fair share of adversity.
The bye week was about seeing if Florida could do more than just play hard. Can it play better?
We’ll find out at the Cocktail Party.
Neil Blackmon covers SEC football and basketball for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
