The Steelers will hit the road to Cincinnati on Thursday to face off against the Bengals in a pivotal midseason AFC North battle.
Pittsburgh is currently in the first place in the division at 4-1 while Cincinnati sits at 2-4. The Bengals are still trying to find their footing after losing Joe Burrow to injury for an extended period of time earlier this season. The Bengals enter this week on a 4-game losing streak.
Steelers vs. Bengals picks
Here’s everything you need to know about this game before placing a bet with the best sports betting app of your choice:
Steelers news and notes
- The Steelers appear to be in the driver’s seat to win a banged-up AFC North. Aaron Rodgers has led the team to a 4-1 record so far this season.
- The Steelers are 12th in offensive EPA so far this season and are solid (but not outstanding) when running and throwing the ball.
- Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell have split most of Pittsburgh’s carries this season. Gainwell has been particularly effective with 4.3 yards per carry and a rushing success rate north of 60%.
- Gainwell also has a huge role in the passing game. He has 22 targets this season, which is second most on the team. However, he’s averaging fewer than 5 yards per reception.
- DK Metcalf leads Pittsburgh with 31 targets. His catch rate is relatively low, but he’s averaging over 18 yards per reception and has 4 receiving touchdowns already this season.
- The Steelers are +7 in turnover differential this season which is the third-best in the NFL.
- Pittsburgh gets pressure on 31.4% of dropbacks, which is the second-highest mark in the league this season.
Bengals news and notes
- The Bengals are in the midst of a disaster season largely due to Joe Burrow’s long-term injury he suffered last month.
- Cincinnati traded for Joe Flacco before last week’s game. The Bengals didn’t fare much better, losing 27-18 to the Packers. Flacco threw for just 219 yards on 45 pass attempts.
- Cincinnati’s super power is its wide receiver tandem of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Chase in particular is still having an outstanding season — he’s averaging over 8 yards per target and had a 56% success rate this year.
- Chase and Higgins have dominated Cincinnati’s red-zone targets this season, taking up about 48% per Sumer Sports.
- Cincinnati has been completely unable to run the ball this year. Chase Brown emerged as a legitimate backfield threat in 2024 but has failed to capitalize on that momentum this year. He’s averaging just 2.7 yards per carry and only has 1 total touchdown this season.
- Cincinnati’s offensive line allows 9.5 pressures per game, which is sixth-most in the NFL.
- The Bengals are 1 of 3 teams in the NFL that goes 3-and-out on over 30% of their offensive possessions.
- The Bengals lead the NFL with a 67% passing rate through 6 weeks.
- Cincinnati also has the fourth-worst defense in the NFL by yards per play allowed with 5.91.
- The Bengals are 26th in defensive pressure rate at 18.2%
Steelers vs. Bengals predictions
I like the Steelers to cover this number. It’s true that Pittsburgh has been rather fortunate so far this year. I also think there’s a chance Joe Flacco injects some real life into this team now that he’s had another week of practice. But the reality is this Bengals roster isn’t very good. The offensive line has been well below-average as a run-blocking unit as well as in pass protection. Cincy can’t run the ball at all. The defense also has a case for being bottom-5 in the NFL. I also think Pittsburgh’s secondary will do enough to slow down Chase and Higgins, which is Cincy’s only reasonable hope of moving the ball. The Steelers are 11th in drop-back EPA allowed this season. Their pass rush is also elite and should get home often enough to force Flacco into some unfavorable situations.
Pick: Steelers -5.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
As mentioned above, Kenneth Gainwell has been a target machine for the Steelers this season but he hasn’t been overly efficient with his catches. I think that changes on Thursday night. The Bengals have given up the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs in the NFL this season. Gainwell is averaging over 3 receptions per game, so it wouldn’t take much additional yardage for him to clear the number being offered by Fanatics.
Pick: Kenneth Gainwell over 15.5 receiving yards (-135 on Fanatics)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
