The Fearless Prediction hits the halfway point of the regular season with some bumps and bruises but remains unblemished. This weekend it’s the “Third Saturday in October,” a game that could end up deciding the postseason fate of Tennessee and Alabama.
This will be the 109th meeting of a series that began in 1901 as the 14th-ranked Vols host the 6th-ranked Tide. That game 125 years ago was a 6-6 tie in Birmingham. The Fearless Prediction wonders if the message boards were angry at the lack of scoring.
During the Nick Saban era, Tennessee rarely won this game and was rarely even competitive. But in recent years, the Vols have turned this into a rivalry again, splitting the last 4 games. Those 2 victories came at Neyland Stadium, and the Vols will need their fans to be as loud and rowdy as they were in 2022 and 2024. The crowd had an impact in both those games.
Tennessee is coming off a shaky 24-17 win at Arkansas. But it was a chaos-filled weekend across the country, so any victory should be celebrated. That said, there are some serious concerns about the Vols’ offense. If the Vols are to have any chance at making the College Football Playoff, they must get more out of the QB position. You can get past Auburn and Arkansas without great play at QB, but that won’t be the case on Saturday against Alabama.
Faizon Brandon hasn’t played since his struggles in the first half of the Auburn game, and there are questions about his overall health. George MacIntyre had 2 INTs and a fumble in the win over Arkansas.
Tennessee is now ranked 54th in total offense at 414.8 yards per game and tied for 44th in scoring offense at 34.7 points per game. Those numbers have taken a tumble over the last 3 weeks. Who knows where this offense would be without RB DeSean Bishop. He’s rushed for 678 yards (113 yards per game) and 8 scores this season. More importantly, he has played the Mariano Rivera role perfectly as the closer in those wins over the Tigers and Razorbacks.
Alabama’s rushing defense is ranked 25th in the FBS, allowing less than 100 yards a game on the ground. Lineman Devan Thompkins could be a problem for the Vols’ offensive line. Thompkins has 4.5 tackles for loss this season. But the biggest worry for Tennessee defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is probably how to block sophomore LB Luke Metz, who leads Alabama in tackles with 43, and has already won multiple SEC Defensive Player of the Week awards.
As for the Alabama offense, the Tide are putting up a lot of points. They are ranked 3rd in the FBS with 44.2 points per game and ranked 32nd in total offense with 452.5 yards per game. Sophomore QB Keelon Russell has been as good as advertised, completing 68% of his passes, with 12 TD throws and only 2 INTs. He can also pick up yards with his cleats, averaging 37.5 yards rushing per game, and has 4 rushing TDs.
Ryan Coleman-Williams, Lotzeir Brooks and Rico Scott make up a sold trio of Tide pass catchers, combining for 64 receptions, 1,028 yards and 8 TDs this season. But bad news came earlier this week for Alabama as head coach Kalen DeBoer said that Coleman-Williams is banged up and unlikely to play on Saturday.
Can the Vols’ defense slow down the Tide? Well, it starts and ends with the pass rush. Tennessee is tops in the nation with 25 sacks this season. If they can get pressure on Russell, the Vols can absolutely win this game. Xavier Gilliam has 5 sacks to lead the team, with Tyree Weathersby close behind at 4.5 sacks. The Vols are also tied for 9th nationally in tackles for loss with 48. Linebackers Amare Campbell and Arion Carter are tied for the team lead in tackles with 38 each.
Should the game come down to special teams, Alabama’s Conor Talty has made all 9 FG attempts this season and Tennessee’s Cooper Ranvier has made 6 of 7 attempts, with his only miss a 51-yarder against the Razorbacks. DeBoer and Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel are each confident in their kickers.
Tennessee and Alabama are each 5-1. A loss wouldn’t eliminate either team from the Playoff but would probably eliminate any room for error.
Tennessee gets a break from the schedule makers. The Tide lost a very physical game against Georgia last weekend and would prefer to be more rested before their trip to Knoxville. But with the SEC expanding to 9 conference games, there simply aren’t as many recovery games on the schedule against a directional Kentucky school anymore.
Still, the Fearless Prediction looks at the quarterback position and believes that Keelon Russell will be the difference in this game. Alabama has the better QB and will make enough plays to avoid the upset.
There will be better days for Tennessee’s QBs, but not on Saturday.
Fearless Prediction: Alabama 27, Tennessee 20
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Mark Nagi has covered Tennessee athletics for over 20 years. He is the author of “Decade of Dysfunction,” an in-depth look at all that led to the crazy coaching search of 2017 at Tennessee. The book is available on Amazon.
