Monday Down South: Texas A&M cruises, Georgia snoozes in the Midseason Vibes Index
By Matt Hinton
Published:
Takeaways, trends and technicalities from Week 7 in the SEC.
Vibes Check
Seven Saturdays down, 7 more to go in the 2025 regular season. How y’all feeling? It’s your semiannual Monday Down South Vibes Index, where we classify all 16 teams’ auras from grooviest to grimmest:
Cruising: Texas A&M ⬆
A&M might not be the most convincing SEC or national championship frontrunner, especially considering its reputation for late-season fadeouts. At the midway point, though, it is the only team that has hit its mark every time out. The Aggies passed their big nonconference road test at Notre Dame, won their first 3 SEC games convincingly, and are off to a 6-0 start for just the 2nd time in the past 30 years. Mike Elko, a relatively nondescript pick to sweep up after the Jimbo Fisher administration, is shaping up as one of the decade’s shrewdest hires.
Now comes the hard part. So far, all 3 of A&M’s conference wins have come at home, over opponents (Auburn, Mississippi State and Florida) with a combined 1-7 record in SEC play. The next 3 are all on the road, at Arkansas, LSU and Mizzou as is the regular-season finale at Texas. So far, the Aggies look like arguably the league’s most complete team. But they were riding high around this time last year, too, in the midst of a 7-game win streak that vaulted them into the top 10 entering November; from there, they crashed out in a 1-4 finish. (Aggies fans have felt that pain more than any team in the country; See: No. 5.) Even when the light is green, this is a fan base that has learned the hard way to look both ways before crossing.
On course: Alabama ⬆, Ole Miss ⬌
Last year, Bama and Ole Miss shared the distinction of beating the best teams on their schedule while dropping multiple games to unranked underdogs, blowing their shot at the Playoff. This year, they’re still earning back some of the trust they lost in the process.
The Crimson Tide have been steady since their Week 1 flop at Florida State, though hardly inevitable, outlasting Georgia, Vanderbilt and Missouri the past 3 weeks in mostly unspectacular fashion. The days of Bama taking a 3-game streak over ranked opponents for granted are long gone – in fact, after the intense rebuke that followed the FSU debacle, there’s a lot to be said for the way this group has risen to the occasion in a series of close, hard-fought games. If it wasn’t, you know, Alabama, it might almost be endearing.
On that note, if I were giving an award for midseason MVP, it would go to Heisman favorite Ty Simpson, who continues to keep Bama’s season afloat. The running game is mediocre, pass protection is inconsistent (to put it kindly), and the defense ain’t what it used to be. Simpson just continues to make plays that move the sticks and keep the defense off the field. In their wins over UGA, Vandy and Mizzou, the Tide had 31 3rd- and 4th-down conversions, most of them via Simpson’s arm, while racking up lopsided advantages in time of possession in all 3 games. When not getting beaten to a pulp in Saturday’s 27-24 win at Missouri, he was orchestrating sustained drives; on the most crucial, with Alabama clinging to a 3-point lead late in the 4th quarter, he connected on a pair of 4th-down daggers – one to extend the drive on the most ice-cold, NFL-ready throw of his young career to date, the other to extend the lead to double digits on his 3rd touchdown pass of the afternoon.
That’s the kind of throw that elevates you from the “Heisman hopeful” pack to the shortlist with a bullet. Based on the past few weeks, it’s also the kind of throw Alabama is counting on him to continue making in a pinch to stay one step ahead of the reaper. Doubts are receding by the week.
As for Ole Miss, the Rebels are right where they want to be at 6-0 with a top-5 ranking, a rising star in QB Trinidad Chambliss, and a win over LSU on the books. But Saturday’s 24-21 escape against 32.5-point underdog Washington State was a little too close to the kind of random flop that derailed last year’s Playoff push for comfort. Back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma the next 2 weeks will make or break the Rebels’ season.
Can’t complain: Missouri ⬌, Vanderbilt ⬌
OK, maybe Missouri can complain a little bit. The Tigers matched Bama physically and statistically but couldn’t make enough plays to pull off what would have been a program-defining upset. Still, they made a convincing enough case that they belong in the Playoff discussion at 5-1, albeit with a significantly reduced margin for error. They’re as close to a breakthrough as they’ve been in the CFP era.
Vandy is 5-1, ranked, and on currently on pace for its best season since 1948 according to Sports-Reference.com’s Simple Rating System. The ‘Dores actually opened as 2.5-point favorites at home against LSU after giving Alabama a 4-quarter game in Tuscaloosa in Week 6. We’ll see what they make of the opportunity in front of them, but the fact that it exists at all already cements this this as one of the most memorable campaigns in living memory.
Proceeding with caution: Georgia ⬌, LSU ⬌, Tennessee ⬌
In the standings, the Dawgs, Tigers and Vols all remain on the Playoff track at 5-1. On the field, they’re all making it look a lot harder than it should.
Georgia keeps digging holes to climb out of, often steep ones. Saturday’s come-from-behind, 20-10 win at Auburn was typical: The Bulldogs have faced a double-digit deficit in the first half in 7 of their past 10 games vs. Power 4 opponents (including last year’s Playoff loss to Notre Dame), and trailed at halftime in 8 of them. Already this season, they’ve fallen behind 21-7 at Tennessee; 14-0 and 21-7 against Alabama; and 10-0 at Auburn in a shockingly one-sided first half. (Auburn fans, of course, will go to their grave insisting it should have been 17-0.) Over the past calendar year, it has been one close shave after another.
Needless to say, that bears little resemblance to the dominant 2021-23 machine that spent essentially 3 consecutive seasons entrenched at No. 1, which rarely failed put games to bed before halftime. In 36 regular-season wins in that span, Georgia trailed in the second half just once, in a 2022 scare at Missouri. Those teams guaranteed a stress-free experience or your money back. This one doesn’t get out of bed for less than a 10-point hole.
LSU breathed a momentary sigh of relief on Saturday night after a 20-10 win over South Carolina, a slightly less harrowing result in real time than Georgia’s identical final score at Auburn. But the Tigers are still waiting for their first complete outing on offense. Despite finishing with a season-high 420 yards against Carolina, they committed 3 turnovers, managed a single touchdown on 5 trips inside the red zone, and failed to top 20 points for the 4th time in as many games vs. a Power 4 opponent.
If the opening line for this weekend’s trip to Nashville holds, LSU will be the underdog in each of their next 3 games against Vandy, Alabama and Texas A&M. With no ranked wins currently under their belt, the Tigers almost certainly can’t afford to lose more than 1 of them.
Tennessee’s issue is on the other side of the ball: Despite boasting the SEC’s highest-scoring offense, the defense leaves the Vols with a vanishing margin for error. They’ve allowed 31+ points in all 3 SEC games, 2 of which – a loss to Georgia and a win at Mississippi State – were decided in overtime. Saturday’s 34-31 win over Arkansas in Knoxville was yet another shootout in which the lame-duck Razorbacks rang up 497 yards, 29 first downs, and a nearly 10-minute advantage in time of possession. An SEC win is an SEC win, but nothing about that inspires confidence going into Tuscaloosa.
Not dead yet: Texas ⬆
Arch Madness lives! Well, for at least a week or 2, anyway. And it’s not so much madness as a massive sigh of relief following a 23-6 romp over Oklahoma, which owed much more to a sweltering effort by Texas’ defense than it did to the Longhorns’ overexposed (in every sense of the word) young quarterback. Arch was fine, accounting for 200 total yards and a touchdown while under steady assault from the opposing pass rush for the second week in a row. Unlike the Week 6 loss at Florida, the defense gave him plenty of cushion against the Sooners, including 3 takeaways. For the first time this year, he didn’t return the favor.
Regardless of the circumstances, the look of relief on Manning’s face post-game was palpable. Beating a rival is a milestone; restoring his confidence in the wake of an outpouring of negativity only added to it. Whether he’s actually turned a corner, TBD. But the schedule sets up in his favor, giving him a full month until the next above-the-fold collision at Georgia with tune-ups against Mississippi State, Kentucky and Vanderbilt in between. The Longhorns are still Playoff longshots is concerned, but for now just salvaging any shot at all will do.
Bracing for impact: Oklahoma ⬇
OU’s first loss of the season was a bitter pill, and not only because it came in the game the Sooners most want to win. The outlook for the rest of the season also got much darker. September star John Mateer turned into a pumpkin, rushing back from surgery on his throwing hand only to serve up 3 interceptions and a dismal 42.8 QBR rating, worst of the weekend among SEC starters. The offense as a whole was out of sync, and the previously elite defense gradually gave way in the second half. Looking ahead, the schedule only gets steeper, with a road trip to South Carolina on deck followed by a gauntlet of 5 consecutive opponents currently ranked in the top 20. If the team that took the field in the Cotton Bowl is the one Sooners fans can expect down the stretch, the Playoff math gets grim in a hurry.
Unburdened: Arkansas ⬌
For their own sake, I sincerely hope Hogs fans have give themselves permission to take the rest of the season off. Bowl eligibility is a pipe dream and they’ve already fired the head coach. Nothing that happens between now and the arrival of the new coach in December matters in the slightest. At best, the Razorbacks manage to keep it interesting as perennial underdogs, like they did Saturday at Tennessee. At worst, they actually spring a couple of upsets and wind up with full-time head coach Bobby Petrino by default. Feel free to spend the rest of your lovely fall Saturdays between now and December thinking about literally anything else.
Adrift: Mississippi State ⬌, South Carolina ⬇
Neither Jeff Lebby nor Shane Beamer is likely to be going anywhere soon, but neither are their respective teams. The Bulldogs and Gamecocks are a combined 1-5 in conference play and both project as underdogs in every remaining SEC games, give or take Mississippi State’s Nov. 1 trip to Arkansas. At least State has some motivation to end the longest active conference losing streak, currently at 14 games dating to 2023. Carolina, which opened the season with its highest expectations in a decade, has nothing in particular left to play for and the meat of the schedule still ahead. If the locals do start to sour on Beamer, don’t be surprised if the vacancy at Virginia Tech he insists he has no interest in suddenly start to look a little more interesting.
The end is nigh: Auburn ⬇, Florida ⬇, Kentucky ⬇
The Tigers, Gators and Wildcats are a combined 1-8 in SEC play, and the odds of Hugh Freeze, Billy Napier or Mark Stoops remaining employed on Dec. 1 are dwindling by the week. Buyouts? Bygones. Napier and Stoops, especially, are widely understood to be dead men walking after narrowly avoiding the chopping block in 2024. Nothing has changed in the meantime except what little patience remained in both Gainesville and Lexington has grown even thinner. Barring a dramatic turn of events in the next few weeks, it’s not a question of if, but when, and who’s next.
Freeze’s situation at Auburn is more complex. The Tigers are struggling, especially on offense. Their big-ticket investments in upgrading the talent level in the passing game have not paid off, yielding an attack that ranks dead last in the SEC in yards per attempt and next-to-last in efficiency. But they are not hopeless. The defense has held up its end of the bargain in all 3 SEC losses. Two of those games involved controversial calls that resulted in big, momentum-changing swings on the scoreboard. And the next 5 games are all winnable, giving them an opportunity to generate some wind in their sails heading into the season-defining Iron Bowl date with Alabama.
Whether “season-defining” equals “win or else” depends on what happens between now and then. But at least a gettable version of Bama in Jordan-Hare is something to look forward to. (Remember, even the Saban-era Tide routinely struggled in odd-year visits to Auburn, going 5-4 in those games and trailing late in the 4th quarter in 3 of the 5 wins.) Even in the worst-case scenario, the Iron Bowl is Freeze’s chance to draw the professional equivalent of a Get Out Of Jail Free card. At the rate it’s going, though, it’s looking more and more likely he’s going to need it.
Dude of the Week: LSU TE/WR Trey’Dez Green
Before Saturday, the 6-7, 240-pound Green had been a nonentity this season due to a lingering knee injury. With the Tigers’ best receiver, Aaron Anderson, on ice against South Carolina, Green picked an opportune moment to break out in a big way. Towering over Gamecocks DBs, he finished with career highs for targets (11), receptions (8) and receiving yards (136), including 3 contested catches, per PFF.
A fully operational Green is a potential game-changer on an offense in desperate need of them.
Dud of the Week: South Carolina’s Offensive Line
Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers was under duress on 26 of his 40 drop-backs in the Gamecocks’ loss at LSU, per PFF, an appalling pressure rate of 65.0% — the highest rate any SEC quarterback has faced in any game this season. PFF singled out 5 different USC linemen for multiple pressures allowed. Under the circumstances, Sellers did a respectable job taking just 3 sacks and avoiding turnovers in the crosshairs. (His lone interception came from a clean pocket.) But the offense has been a massive disappointment across the board in Carolina’s 3-3 start, with scoring down by more than 10 points per game compared to last year in SEC play.
Notebook
1.) Am I the only person in America other than the officiating crew itself who thought the refs in Auburn-Georgia got the call right on Jackson Arnold‘s crucial goal line fumble just before halftime? Or at least, as right as they could under Rorschach test conditions?
Besides being a critical moment in the game, this play is a very good example of the futility of the idea that there is some objective Eye in the Sky capable of replacing good old-fashioned human judgment on each and every call. They spent 6 minutes poring over every frame of this play from multiple directions, syncing up the angles, slowing them down to the smallest allowable fraction of a second, and still did not come close to offering a conclusive point of view. Arnold lost control the ball at literally the exact nanosecond he crossed the imaginary plane extending up from the front end of the stripe. (My editor found the broadcast crew’s certainty that the ball crossed the plane mystifying, and so did I.) Georgia had arguably just as compelling a case that it should have been awarded a touchdown, given that defender Kyron Jones recovered the loose ball — as called on the field and upheld on review — and was never down. Choose your own adventure.
I don’t have the time or space here to get into the full spiel about why replay needs to be dramatically curtailed. But if the point is to eliminate or simply minimize controversy, the actual result is closer the opposite. In a way, it’s a victim of its own success: The expectation that deferring to the video means getting every call “right” only makes people more enraged when it turns out no one can discern or agree on what the “right” call even is.
Auburn has now been on the wrong end of 2 massive swing plays in a matter of weeks that could have just as easily gone the other way based on the video evidence, which was anything but conclusive in either case. Sometimes the folks in charge just have to make a call and the rest of us have to live with it.
At any rate, Auburn has little room to complain given the way the offense’s second-half collapse. The Tigers had thoroughly dominated the game up to that point, and despite blowing a prime opportunity to extend the margin were still in the driver’s seat with a 10-0 lead and UGA’s offense backup up inside its own 5-yard line with less than 2 minutes to go in the half. From that point on, they stunk up the joint, allowing the Bulldogs to score 20 unanswered points without a flicker of a response from Auburn’s deflated offense. If a call at the end of the first half in a game in which they held a score-score lead actually made a difference in the final outcome, that’s on the Tigers.
2.) Count the blocks in the back by Texas on the game-changing punt return by Ryan Niblett in the 4th quarter:
I’ve got 2 without a doubt: One comes just after Niblett gathers the punt, a plain shove in the back by No. 24 around the 30 yard-line; the other comes around the 50-yard line, where a Texas blocker left his feet to take out the last remaining Oklahoma defender with a chance to make the tackle as Niblett breaks into the open field. Hit him squarely in the numbers. In between, there were also a couple of blindside blocks that took OU players off their feet; I will generously classify those as “debatable,” given that the blockers managed to engage at the shoulders rather than in the back, but on both they still arrived from outside of the defender’s field of vision. Look, I’m not a stickler for each and every possible flag that could potentially be thrown, but you gotta call 1 of those. The block at midfield — directly in the path of the runner! — was egregious enough on its own.
3.) In my preview of the Alabama-Missouri game last week I pointed out that time of possession would be a key indicator: Mizzou led the nation in TOP entering the game at more than 37 minutes per game, and Bama finished with a big edge in TOP in its previous 2 wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. So it was: The Crimson Tide held the ball for a whopping 38:33 on Saturday, a 17-minute advantage that kept Mizzou’s offense sidelined and resigned to playing from behind most of the afternoon.
4.) Beau Pribula’s game-clinching INT on Mizzou’s last-gasp drive against Bama was a missed opportunity on multiple levels. Besides being a poor throw that sailed well over the head of his intended receiver, Pribula missed a wide-open Marquis Johnson, who let his quarterback, the entire stadium, and everyone watching at home know it.
5.) Texas A&M’s defense continues to dominate on 3rd downs. In 3 conference games, the Aggies have held opposing offenses from Auburn, Mississippi State and Florida to a grand total of 2 3rd-down conversions on 33 attempts, a microscopic success rate of 6.1%.
Moment of Zen of the Week
Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
