Best Week 3 SEC picks and ATS predictions

Last week’s picks saw the Vandy defense come up clutch, allowing 45 points to Wake Forest and generally doing everything it could to help that game hit the over.

Unfortunately, a Tennessee touchdown in OT killed my Pitt +6.5 play and I had to settle for 1-1.

This week, I’m showing my impatience by making two first-half plays. But, just like last week, I’ll be asking one particular SEC unit to keep up its recent form (or lack thereof). Looking at you, Texas A&M offense!

The odds for all Week 3 games involving SEC teams can be found in the table below (odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, Sep. 13). Under the table, find my two best bets for the week.

Pick 1: Miami vs. Texas A&M — First Half Under 23 (-125)

This will be Miami’s first test against a Power 5 defense and, as disappointing as A&M’s offense has been so far, its defense has played well. DJ Durkin’s unit pitched a Week 1 shoutout against FCS Sam Houston (31-0) and then held a potent App State attack (which put up 61 against UNC) to just 17 points in last week’s stunning 17-14 setback.

Though they only return 60% of production on that side of the ball (per ESPN), the Aggies’ defense was a top-10 unit in Defensive FEI last season.

On the other side of the ball, Tyler Van Dyke and the Miami offense still look like a group that’s trying to coalesce. The sheer talent discrepancy in matchups against Bethune Cookman (70-13) and Southern Miss (30-7) rendered that a moot point. It will show this week when they step up to their own weight class.

The Aggies’ struggles on offense have been writ large across the state of Texas. They managed just 1 offensive touchdown against App State, with the other coming on a scintillating, 95-yard kickoff return by running back Devon Achane. A +2500 contender in the national championship odds heading into Week 2, the Aggies have now faded to +10000.

There is ample time for A&M to turn around its season, but expecting the offense to come out clicking on Saturday is a tall order. Miami returns 80% of its defensive production from last season and has been relatively dominant so far in 2022, albeit against inferior opponents.

Of particular concern to A&M is that Miami’s first two opponents have averaged just 2.25 yards per carry. If Achane is unable to jump-start the attack on the ground, there will be even more pressure on sophomore pivot Haynes King (or Max Johnson), which is a recipe for disaster right now.

All in all, I expect a defensive battle. Under 23 points in the first half looks like solid value at -125 in Week 3 NCAAF odds.

Pick 2: Georgia Tech +9.5 (-110) First Half vs. Ole Miss

Asking the Rebels to go into Atlanta and come out of the first half with a double-digit lead is a bit much. There’s no doubt that Ole Miss is the better team. But they are dealing with a ton of roster turnover and — like many teams this week — this is their first Power 5 test of the season.

Their only game so far against a DI team was a lackluster 28-10 win over Troy in Week 1.

Georgia Tech, on the other hand, faced Clemson right out of the gate. While that ultimately ended in a 41-10 rout, the Yellow Jackets held their own until the 4th quarter. Clemson finished the game with only 378 total yards and was limited to 3.0 yards per carry.

Ole Miss still hasn’t named a definitive starting QB with Jaxson Dart and Luke Altmyer roughly splitting time against FCS Central Arkansas last Saturday. Lane Kiffin has two capable arms, though if he had a star, he’d also have a starting QB by this point.

Expect a big first-half effort from the Yellow Jackets at home and look for this one to head into halftime within single digits.