Best Week 2 SEC picks and ATS predictions
After an 0-for-2 Week 1, both money and pride are on the line in my Week 2 SEC picks. All 14 teams are in action on Saturday (Sep. 10), starting with a quartet of games at noon ET and culminating with Mississippi State vs Arizona at 11 pm ET.
The first conference games take place in Week 2, with South Carolina visiting Arkansas and Florida hosting Kentucky.
The table below lists the spread, moneyline, and game total for all Week 2 games involving SEC teams. Under the table, find my picks for Week 2. The odds once again come from Caesars Sportsbook.
Pick 1: Vanderbilt vs Wake Forest Over 65.5 (-110)
The spread opened at Wake Forest -7 and then ballooned to -13 when news broke that Deacs QB Sam Hartman had been cleared to play following an offseason blood clot issue. The total, though, only moved from 61.5 to 65.5.
Whether it’s Hartman under center for Wake or freshman Mitch Griffis, expect a ton of points. Vandy’s defense had an encouraging start to the season in Week 0 at Hawaii, holding the Rainbow Warriors to just 10 points. But Hawaii was still able to move the ball (358 total yards on offense), hurting themselves with 8 penalties and 2 turnovers.
Vandy’s Week 1 matchup with FCS Elon was a different story. Vandy escaped with a 42-31 victory as 18.5-point chalk, but the Phoenix outgained the ‘Dores 49- 424, including 343 yards through the air on just 20 completions.
Just like 2021, Vandy’s secondary was exposed on almost every drive. Hartman or Griffis, the Deacs have more than enough weapons to expose Clark Lea’s defense again.
The Vanderbilt offense, on the other hand, had its second solid showing of the season against Elon. QB Mike Wright had a school-record 6 touchdowns (4 passing, 2 rushing) against the Phoenix. That came a week after Vandy torched Hawaii for 63 points on the strength of 404 rushing yards. His mobility is, so far, masking the obvious o-line issues that remain.
States: OH, MD, LA, CO, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, VA, TN, AZ, IA, WV
Wake’s defense was vulnerable against the rush last season, sitting 109th in rush defense compared to 45th against the pass. While this will obviously be a much stiff test than either Hawaii or Elon, Vanderbilt’s offense should be able to hold up its end of the bargain when it comes to hitting the over.
This has all the trappings of a shootout.
Pick 2: Pitt +6.5 (-110) vs Tennessee
USC transfer Kedon Slovis had an encouraging start to his tenure at Pitt. The 6-3 senior threw for 308 yards on 16-24 passing with 1 TD and no picks as his Panthers won the Backyard Brawl 38-31 over West Virginia.
Now last season’s ACC champs host Tennessee as 6.5-point home underdogs. I was surprised to see this line so high, as was Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi. Pitt’s NCAAF win total is a full game higher than Tennessee’s (8.5 vs 7.5) despite their strength-of-schedules being similar (Tennessee is 47th; Pitt is 61st). Losing QB Kenny Pickett (NFL) and leading receiver Jordan Addison (transferred to USC) was always going to lead to some growing pains, regardless of who took over under center, but a now-healthy Slovis was a savvy addition by Pat Narduzzi.
The Pitt defense returned 75% of its 2021 production. It would be a gross overstatement to label it a “shutdown defense,” but that unit did hold 5 of its 2021 opponents under 20 points, including Clemson.
Pitt also beat the Vols in Knoxville last season (41-34) in a mistake-filled game for Tennessee. The Vols committed the only 3 turnovers and racked up 13 penalties for 134 yards.
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Tennessee put the boots to Ball State in its Week 1 opener, jumping out to a 38-0 halftime lead and cruising to a 59-10 victory with backups playing much of the fourth quarter.
The main concern arising from the game is that Tennessee’s defensive line was grossly ineffective. They didn’t record a sack and had just 7 hurries on 43 dropbacks. The Vols finished 122nd out of 130 FBS teams in passing defense last season, and their inability to get pressure was a huge reason.
It’s hard to see that not being a big problem on Saturday in a hostile environment. Keep an eye on the NCAAF odds as I expect this spread to move in favor of the home team before kickoff.
