Best Week 4 SEC picks and ATS predictions
Coming off another 1-1 week — where I also took a big L in the comment section after calling Georgia Tech “the Hokies” — my record sits at an uninspiring and unprofitable 2-4 on the season.
Week 4 once again sees all 14 SEC teams in action, highlighted by Top-25 battles between No. 20 Florida at No. 11 Tennessee and No. 10 Arkansas at No. 23 Texas A&M.
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Unfortunately, we won’t learn much about No. 1 Georgia or No. 2 Alabama this Saturday. They’re 40-plus-point favorites over Kent State and Vanderbilt, respectively.
The odds for all games involving SEC teams are set out in the table below (odds as of Tuesday, Sep. 20, at DraftKings Sportsbook Tennessee). Under the table, find my best bets for the week.
Pick 1: Arkansas vs Texas A&M First-Half Under 23 (-105)
I’m going back to the well with Texas A&M this week, specifically their combination of uninspiring offense and rock-solid defense. Coming off a 17-9 win at home over No. 13 Miami, there is little reason to think Darrell Dickey’s offense has improved. The Aggies gained just 264 total yards against the Canes. Taking over the starting job from Haynes King, junior QB Max Johnson went 10-20 for 140 yards through the air with 1 TD, no picks, and a 46.7 QBR.
Arkansas’ defense should be a little more generous than Miami’s — Arkansas sits 48th in DFEI while Miami is 37th, per Football Outsiders — but it’s been considerably more vulnerable against the pass than the rush. Until Johnson (or King) shows he can light up a susceptible secondary, I’m going to assume that he won’t.
On offense, Arkansas wants to run early and run often. Rushing behind one of the country’s best run-blocking offensive lines, Raheim Sanders has piled up 440 yards on the ground through 3 games, putting him 4th in the country. Even if the Hogs’ run-heavy game plan succeeds, it’s going to chew the clock.
And that is an “if,” not a “when.” A&M’s defense is unquestionably better against the pass, surrendering 179 rushing yards (4.9 YPC) to Miami and 181 (3.5 YPC) to App State, but this is still a very capable and well-coach front seven that will have focused all week on containing Sanders.
I’m tempted to take the Arkansas moneyline, but I feel safer with the first-half under, which currently sits at 23 in the Week 4 NCAAF odds.
Pick 2: Florida +11 (-110) vs Tennessee
Florida’s past 2 games have been uninspiring, to say the least. A 26-16 home setback to Kentucky was followed by a narrow 31-28 win over South Florida as 23.5-point favorites.
Those results were all the more disappointing because of how encouraging Florida’s Week 1 win over Utah was. QB Anthony Richardson looked like he’d be skyrocketing up the Heisman odds after throwing for 168 yards on an efficient 17-24 passing while adding 106 yards and 3 TDs on the ground.
But Richardson hasn’t found the end zone once in the past 2 games — rushing or passing, and the Gators’ defense has started to look awfully porous. Florida surrendered 402 total yards, including a massively concerning 286 on the ground (6.2 YPC).
Now UF faces undoubtedly the best offense it’s seen all season.
So why take the Gators?
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The simple answer is that I think Florida is as much the team that beat Utah as the team we saw in Weeks 2 and 3. This line is a little too skewed to their recent performances.
Tennessee has beaten the stuffing out of the 2 Group of 5 teams its faced — 59-10 over Ball State and 63-6 over Akron — and won an overtime dogfight at Pittsburgh (34-27). With the game in Knoxville, it’s entirely possible the Vols jump on Florida early and never look back.
But Florida has the talent to keep it close and should be as focused as they can be for this massive SEC East rivalry game.
