College baseball futures market analysis: Breaking down top favorites, key dark horse
With the college baseball selection show now less than 1 month away, it’s a great time to examine the futures market for the College World Series.
Several teams currently stand out amongst the rest as top contenders to take home the national championship in Omaha. There’s also a dark-horse worth monitoring in the lead-up to the start of the postseason.
Here’s a look at the college baseball futures market as things currently stand:
3 favorites
Texas A&M (+600 on FanDuel)
The Aggies are co-favorites at this point to win the national championship, which would be their first in program history. Texas A&M only has 7 previous trips to Omaha, including just 3 this century.
Texas A&M is led by a pitching staff that ranks 5th nationally with an ERA of 3.71 (entering the weekend). Ryan Prager has proved to be an ace in the SEC this year, logging an ERA of 2.59 with a WHIP under 1. He also has 80 strikeouts in 59 innings of work. A&M also has a dominant bullpen arm in Evan Aschenbeck, who has an ERA of just 1.6 this season in 19 appearances.
Offensively, A&M entered the weekend 4th nationally with a .586 slugging percentage. Braden Montgomery and Jace LaViolette have both already cleared the 20+ home run threshold this season. The Aggies also have 7 different players in their lineup who are hitting at least .300 on the year.
Texas A&M is 38-6 on the season while have a strength-of-scheduled that ranks 31st nationally, per RPI.
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Arkansas (+600 on DraftKings)
Arkansas is level with Texas A&M in terms of being a top contender for the national title.
Hagen Smith is the headliner for the Hogs on the pitching side, as he owns a 1.35 ERA so far this season in 11 starts. He has struck out a staggering 111 batters in just 60 innings so far this season and has established himself as one of the top college arms in the upcoming MLB Draft.
However, Arkansas’ rotation goes deeper than just Smith. Brady Tygart and Mason Molina have also made double-digit starts this season and have posted ERAs of 2.68 and 3.47, respectively. The bullpen has also been excellent, led by Gabe Gaeckle and his 6 saves. Arkansas may have the best — and deepest — pitching staff in the country as the calendar flips to May next week.
Arkansas’ dominance on the mound has helped to cover up for what has been a somewhat mediocre offense, at least relative to other contenders. The Razorbacks currently rank 120th nationally in slugging percentage and 103rd in on-base percentage.
Tennessee (+1000 on FanDuel)
Tennessee closes out the top tier of SEC baseball contenders for 2024. The Vols currently sit 1.5 games back of Kentucky for the SEC East lead, but are 37-7 overall and have now won 6 consecutive games.
Tennessee’s offense has been remarkable so far this season. The Vols began the weekend No. 1 nationally in runs scored, averaging more than 10 per game. That total isn’t quite as high in SEC play, but UT’s offense has done just fine against conference opposition as well. Five different Vols have already recorded 14+ home runs this season.
UT’s pitching staff is also solid, boasting a 3.84 ERA on the season — good enough for 8th nationally at the start of the weekend. Drew Beam has been Tennessee’s most consistent starting pitcher so far this season, posting a 3.29 ERA in 11 starts.
Tennessee has been one of the country’s top programs over the past few seasons, but the Vols have never won the College World Series. They have made trips to Omaha in 2 of the past 3 seasons, however. They’ve also won their NCAA regional in 3 consecutive campaigns.
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1 dark horse
Florida (+3000 on DraftKings)
Florida has fallen short of expectations so far this season, but there’s still time for the Gators to turn things around.
Florida has one significant advantage over the competition as the postseason nears: Jac Caglianone. A true 2-way superstar, Caglianone is arguably the best player in college baseball this season. He’s bring prodigious power from the left side as a hitter and has also been Florida’s most consistent starting pitcher to this point in the season.
Offensively, Caglianone is hitting .404 and has an OPS of 1.373 so far this season. He’s already hit 26 homers this year, including a recent stretch where he homered in a record-tying 9 consecutive contests. On the mound, Caglianone has made 10 starts and has allowed opposing hitters to bat just .215 against him. He does have a 4.1 ERA on the year, largely due to a high walk rate (35 free passes in 48.1 innings of work).
Of course, Florida will have to figure out its rotation down the stretch if it wants to have a chance to make it to Omaha — let alone win the national championship. No Florida starting pitcher has an ERA below 5 in SEC play this season. Fisher Jameson has pitched very well in a bullpen role for the Gators — he has an ERA of 1.29 in 14 innings against SEC opponents this year.
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The best of the rest
Wake Forest and Clemson are the top favorites from outside of the SEC to win the national title. The Tigers and Demon Deacons are currently +1200 and +1400, respectively, per the latest odds from DraftKings.
The NCAA Tournament field will be set on May 27.
Spenser–I agree that it is a great time to discuss the futures of this year’s college world series, but next Tuesday would have been better.
First, again. First, again. What a feeling!
I will say this, Sully knows how to build momentum in the latter part of the year and take it into the tournaments. Will that happen? Who knows and with our young pitchers it could go either way.
If Florida can do enough to make a regional it could be dangerous ; However, with the hole that has been dug it will be difficult. Must win the series against Tennessee , Kentucky , and Georgia ( not an easy task).
if uf goes 6-3 (‘win the series’) in those last three series, then they’ll have secured a #2 seed in a regional…and likely no worse than against #8 national seed. with 6/9 in gainseville…i wouldn’t rule it out, but the most likely of records in those 9 games is probably 4-5
Florida doesn’t have the pitching to make any sort of postseason run.
Kinda like ole
Miss did not have the pitching to win it all a few season ago as the last team in? Florida has had its issues on the mound ,but I was happy from
What I saw at Arkansas this weekend ( pitching was pretty sound). Let Florida make a regional and it could deff make a run.
never a good sign to compare your team’s chances to another team’s improbable run.
Did not compare just used a similar situation.
Florida has had a great run but a down year happens to all eventually.
Hopefully the UT baseball team fares better than the football team…
Huh? Tard, you mean like having the second best season since the Fulmer era at winning 9 games last season. Did you live under power lines as a child or eat led chips lol? Also, TN is the only SEC to have gone back to Omaha 2 out of the last 3 seasons. Won the most games over the last 3. I’d say both have faired pretty good. If you don’t like the football team, quit as a fan than, Vanderbilt could use you.. lol