Friday Forecast: Saturday Football staff picks for a loaded Week 1 CFB slate

College football is back, and Week 1 gives us incredible matchups beginning on Thursday and running through Monday night.

The Saturday Football crew will be here each week to provide picks against the spread for 10 of the biggest games of the week. Let’s dive in.

No. 14 Utah (-4.5) vs. Florida

• Spenser Davis: Without Cam Rising, it’s tough to back the Utes. This will be a challenging environment for Florida but the Gators have a talented roster. They could win this one outright, so I’ll take the points.  PICK: Florida
• Paul Harvey: If Cam Rising plays, Utah likely wins, but this isn’t the type of matchup the Utes will blow out to begin the season. PICK: Florida
• Derek Peterson: I’ve watched enough of Bryson Barnes to know that a questionable Cam Rising means this will be a close game. But I’ve also seen enough of Graham Mertz to know Utah’s crowd will cause issues and Utah’s defense will make a winning play late. Florida covers, Utah wins. PICK: Florida
• Ethan Stone: I’m really low on Florida this year. Once Lagway and Co. get to town, come see me. With that said I think this one will be a close game (1-2 touchdowns), but I’ll give No. 14 the benefit of the doubt. PICK: Utah

Minnesota (-7) vs. Nebraska

• Spenser Davis: The end of the Scott Frost era was rough. Matt Rhule may not be a savior, but he is competent. And competency tends to show up quickly — especially when it’s replacing coaches like Frost. PICK: Nebraska
• Paul Harvey: There are a number of reasons to be excited for Matt Rhule at Nebraska, but expect PJ Fleck to row the boat convincingly in a home opener. PICK: Minnesota
• Derek Peterson: I’m buying what Matt Rhule is selling. PICK: Nebraska
• Ethan Stone: This was one of the toughest on the list because Nebraska is so compelling. Minnesota fell apart at times without Mo Ibrahim last year, and though the Gophers are not expected to take a huge leap back (only a small one), I’m going to go with the points and Matt Rhule here. PICK: Nebraska

Georgia Tech vs. Louisville (-7.0)

• Spenser Davis: Louisville is the more talented team. But Georgia Tech is at home and played very well under Brent Key to end last season. It doesn’t feel great, but I’ll take the points. PICK: Georgia Tech
• Paul Harvey: Brent Key might be the right coach to turn things around in Atlanta. But in this matchup, I’m going with Jeff Brohm and his extensive efforts to overhaul Louisville’s roster this offseason. PICK: Louisville
• Derek Peterson: Jeff Brohm did wonders at Purdue and he’ll do the same at Louisville. The tenure gets off on the right foot and the Cardinals win by multiple scores. PICK: Louisville
• Ethan Stone: Louisville’s secondary is dangerous and I like Jeff Brohm to do some damage with the Cardinals. Louisville by 2 touchdowns. PICK: Louisville

No. 12 Tennessee (-28) vs. Virginia

• Spenser Davis: The news that Virginia will be without star pass rusher Chico Bennett vs. the Vols is a big blow. But I’m much more concerned about what the Cavaliers’ offense will look like. I’m not sure UVA is getting to double-digits, and Joe Milton still has plenty to prove. PICK: Tennessee
• Paul Harvey: Concerns about Joe Milton’s accuracy are warranted, but this is a tough matchup for Virginia at multiple positions. Even if Milton misfires at times, the Vols should overpower the Cavs from the opening kickoff. PICK: Tennessee
• Derek Peterson: It’s a pretty big number in a P5 vs. P5 right out of the gates. Week 1 games can be sloppy, too. I’d usually pick the dog here, but for all the reasons my colleagues have said, Tennessee probably rolls over this Virginia squad. PICK: Tennessee
• Ethan Stone: Tennessee’s improved defense beats Virginia’s offense 19/20 times. Maybe more. Tennessee’s electric offense, especially its vertical game, should feast on a Virginia squad without its top pass rusher and a less-than-average secondary. PICK: Tennessee

No. 10 Washington (-14.0) vs. Boise State

• Spenser Davis: This isn’t your father’s Boise State. Washington should take care of business here. PICK: Washington
• Paul Harvey: Maybe it’s because I am more concerned about Washington coming back to earth, but I do not think this is a foregone conclusion in Week 1. The Huskies should win, but it would not be shocking if things are closer than expected. PICK: Boise State
• Derek Peterson: Washington was awesome a year ago and (I think) plugged the holes that needed plugging. Michael Penix Jr kicks off the Heisman candidacy with a strong showing. PICK: Washington
• Ethan Stone: Boise State is really fun, but so is Washington. The Huskies are bigger in the trenches with a dark horse Heisman candidate at QB. Should be an all-time uniform matchup though. PICK: Washington

Purdue (-4) vs. Fresno State

• Spenser Davis: Purdue only giving 4 points in a home-opener vs. a Fresno State team that will be replacing its starting quarterback? I’ll take the bait. PICK: Purdue
• Paul Harvey: Ryan Walters’ first game in West Lafayette as a head coach is far from easy. However, star RB Devin Mockobee returns and Walters beefed up the offense with transfer QB Hudson Card and OC Graham Harrell. If nothing else, the Boilermakers should put up points consistently. PICK: Purdue
• Derek Peterson: Give me the Bulldogs. PICK: Fresno State
• Ethan Stone: I feel like I’m missing something here. Regardless, I’ll take just about any Power 5 program 4 at home over a middle-tier Mountain West squad. PICK: Purdue

No. 7 Penn State (-20.5) vs. West Virginia

• Spenser Davis: Penn State is one of the most talented teams in the country. West Virginia is … not that. Three touchdowns isn’t enough. PICK: Penn State
• Paul Harvey: Drew Allar should be making his first start, but Penn State got him some meaningful playing time as a true freshman. Regardless of who the QB is, the Nittany Lions are likely to run away with this game behind Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. PICK: Penn State
• Derek Peterson: No questions on the offensive line, one of the best one-two punches at tailback in the country, and a dynamic quarterback all make for a Penn State blowout. The most important season of James Franklin’s tenure kicks off with a win. PICK: Penn State
• Ethan Stone: I like Penn State, I like Drew Allar to meet or exceed expectations and I certainly like the home team against an iffy WVU team at night in Happy Valley. PICK: Penn State

South Carolina vs. No. 21 North Carolina (-2.5)

• Spenser Davis: Drake Maye. Spencer Rattler. Saturday night under the lights. I’ve got this one as a toss-up, so I’ll take the points. PICK: South Carolina
• Paul Harvey: The status of Tez Walker is important right out of the gate. Either way, ride with Drake Maye, but it’s a tighter call if the NCAA continues to hold Walker down. PICK: North Carolina
• Derek Peterson: With Drake Maye and Spencer Rattler dueling, this could come down to who has the ball last. PICK: South Carolina
• Ethan Stone: The battle of the Carolinas is one I’ve circled for Week 1 for a while now. This should be a fun one. That said, I like Drake Maye under center slightly more than Rattler. PICK: North Carolina

No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 5 LSU (-2.5)

• Spenser Davis: Florida State has a loaded roster and appears to be relatively healthy going into Week 1. It has star power for days, a proven infrastructure and the head-to-head advantage at quarterback. It also has my pick. PICK: Florida State
• Paul Harvey: This game is a true toss-up, but I have a hard time envisioning LSU losing this game for a second time. A full year in the offensive system pays off for Jayden Daniels this time around as the Tigers start off with a bang. PICK: LSU
• Derek Peterson: I’m riding LSU to the College Football Playoff, so I can’t really pick them to lose this game out of the gates. (Which means they probably will.) I like the Tigers, who seemingly got better all over the field, in Year 2 under Brian Kelly. PICK: LSU
• Ethan Stone: A potential Game of the Year candidate Week 1 with strong QBs, strong defenses and it’s a rematch from last year’s awesome clash? I literally have no idea and will be tossing a coin. It seems to have landed on LSU, so I’ll go there: PICK: LSU

Duke vs. No. 9 Clemson (-13)

• Spenser Davis: The Garrett Riley hire is going to pay dividends at Clemson, but I do expect there to be somewhat of a learning curve here. Cade Klubnik is still pretty inexperienced and Duke has the offensive line to keep Riley Leonard protected enough vs. Clemson. Duke probably loses this game, but I think they cover. PICK: Duke
• Paul Harvey: Duke is once again a respectable program, but Clemson might have fixed the one flaw preventing them from being a regularly elite program. “Might” implies some question marks, but I’ll take OC Garrett Riley and the talent of the Tigers, even in a nice test to start the season. PICK: Clemson
• Derek Peterson: Clemson is significantly more talented. Certainly talented enough to overcome the mistakes that are bound to be made in this Week 1 ACC clash. PICK: Clemson
• Ethan Stone: I like Duke a lot this year, mostly because of Riley Leonard. I also really like home teams to cover, especially in a standalone night game of this caliber. Some have picked the Blue Devils as their dark horse in the ACC. I’m not quite saying that, but it has to start somewhere, right? PICK: Duke

(Editor’s note: Odds via FanDuel)

Derek Peterson

Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.