O'Gara: It's too early to totally bail on preseason SEC predictions, but I feel worst about these 5
I don’t like to overreact to Week 1. I really don’t.
So many of these games aren’t so much games as they are opportunities for the first-teamers to feel like they’re world-beaters, and depending on how lopsided the matchup is, the second- and third-teamers might feel the same by day’s end.
But that doesn’t apply to everyone. Sometimes, Week 1 can reveal some true cracks in the foundation.
Some troubling signs made me worried about a handful of my preseason predictions.
5. LSU will have control of the West heading into the final week of the regular season
To be clear, I had LSU losing to Florida State en route to a 9-3 regular season. I actually feel more confident than ever that my bold prediction of LSU losing 2 games in September will come true.
But after witnessing LSU’s second-half issues against Florida State in Orlando, I’m not as confident that the Tigers will get off to a 9-2 start with a win against Alabama to take control of the SEC West. My preseason prediction that LSU would miss out on a repeat West title by losing the regular-season finale to A&M suddenly appears optimistic.
Why? LSU still doesn’t look like it has a running game outside of Jayden Daniels scrambles, the secondary is still a significant liability and the Harold Perkins switch to off-ball linebacker could be LSU misusing its best asset.
So yeah, I’m concerned that Brian Kelly, who said “clearly we’re not the team I thought we were,” might have more of an 8-4 team than one who’ll have control of the toughest division in the sport.
4. Ladd McConkey will be Georgia’s first 1,000-yard receiver (and second ever) since 2002
I don’t think any less of McConkey than I did at this time last week. I’ve grown to appreciate how tough he is, and whether people realize it or not, he’s someone who runs excellent routes as an outside receiver (not a slot guy) and he blocks like his job depends on it. He’s a stud.
He’s also dealing with a back issue that sidelined him in Week 1. That’s not ideal, especially for the amount of punishment he’ll take on throughout what could be a 15-game season.
I was also reminded Saturday night that becoming just the 2nd Georgia player to ever hit 1,000 receiving yards will be a challenge with this personnel. It’s not just Brock Bowers. Transfers Dominic Lovett and RaRa Thomas will covet targets, and if Mike Bobo continues Georgia’s recent trend of running more 12 personnel (1 running back, 2 tight ends), Oscar Delp will have a significant role. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this passing game.
McConkey is great, and we’ll get plenty of reminders of that. We just might not see him finish on the podium for the best single season ever by a Georgia receiver.
3. Squirrel White will lead the SEC in receiving yards
White was on my 2023 All-Bang The Drum Team, so don’t get it twisted. I’m a fan. He’ll make chunk plays, much like he did in the Orange Bowl. I believe his downfield connection with Joe Milton will be on display sooner rather than later.
But watching the opener and seeing how close his targets were to the line of scrimmage, I was reminded that even with Milton’s cannon for an arm, we could see some tweaks in the Josh Heupel offense this year. I don’t know that the 20-30-yard passes with room to run will be a staple like they were with Hendon Hooker. Milton hasn’t shown that he can execute that part of Tennessee’s game yet.
There’s also a strong possibility that Tennessee leans on the run even more this year. Between Jabari Small, Jaylen Wright and Dylan Sampson, who casually had 4 touchdowns against Virginia, Tennessee is going to bully teams with a multi-faceted, up-tempo ground game. Heupel’s offenses average between 40-45 rushing attempts per game. It wouldn’t surprise me if this team was closer to 50.
I realize it’s strange to have concern about a receiver’s production after he recorded twice as many receptions as anybody on his team, but I got the sense that the offense might not ask White to have as many splash plays, especially in the likely event that Ramel Keyton and Oregon transfer Dont’e Thornton are targeted downfield by Milton.
2. Florida will beat Florida State and Tennessee
Woof.
I mean, I only had Florida going 6-6, so it’s not as if I said the Gators were ready to compete in the East. In many ways, that opener against Utah confirmed some of the concerns I had about Florida. That is, they’re going to struggle to maximize their best offensive strength (the running back duo of Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne) and put Graham Mertz in tough spots. Even if there’s some defensive improvement with a better scheme from new DC Austin Armstrong, I worry about that group doing the heavy lifting with limited proven depth.
But after watching what FSU and Tennessee did so well in their openers, yeah, I fear that I ignored my preseason concerns about Florida when I called for those upsets.
I have no idea how Florida will stop Jared Verse and that FSU front that confused Jayden Daniels, nor do I see Florida’s defensive backs disrupting new Jordan Travis’ targets — Keon Coleman and Jaheim Bell. Those mismatches could be more stark than they were in last year’s thriller in Tallahassee.
And while I’ll never dismiss the idea of Florida beating Tennessee in The Swamp — the Vols haven’t won in Gainesville since 2003 — we saw Tim Banks’ defense look significantly improved up front. Granted, it was only Virginia. But Florida, even once it returns starting center Kingsley Eguakun, might not have an answer for the likes of James Pearce Jr., Omari Thomas and Tyler Baron.
Speaking of SEC East teams that I regret picking to beat Tennessee …
1. South Carolina will finish 2nd in the SEC East
Somewhere amid Spencer Rattler getting sacked 9 times by a UNC defense that recorded 17 sacks all last season, I had a realization.
“Oh, this South Carolina offensive line is a problem. And not in a good way.”
Bad. South Carolina’s offensive line looked like it was playing in a Week 10 game with 3 starters out and its 7th different starting combination. Nope. That was Week 1. It’s a problem because South Carolina admittedly lacked proven backfield depth with converted quarterback/receiver Dakereon Joyner as the team’s starting running back after MarShawn Lloyd transferred to Lincoln Riley’s offense at USC.
It’s also a problem that a new play-caller, Dowell Loggains, now has a limited playbook knowing that calling anything downfield could result in Rattler taking a devastating hit. So when you can’t run the ball and you can’t protect your quarterback, how are you going to keep defenses on their toes? I worry about that a lot. There’s only so much Beamer Ball can do to overcome that.
I had the Gamecocks beating the likes of Tennessee, Kentucky and Florida to finish 8-4 overall and 2nd in the East. I’m already admitting that I overlooked the continued weakness in the trenches, and getting to an 8-4 mark seems like a tall task.
But on the bright side, South Carolina fans, I’m definitely not bailing on the idea of beating Clemson again.