Weekly takeaways, trends and technicalities from Week 3’s SEC action.

In this week’s sobering edition of Monday Down South …

  • Florida forges an identity
  • Jayden Daniels finds his muse
  • Georgia puts the genie back in the bottle
  • The weekend’s best individual performances and power rankings

… and more! But first:

Portrait of Bama at low tide

In the long run, it’s a testament to Alabama’s relentless, unprecedented consistency over the years that a 14-point road win in miserable weather qualifies as an emergency event. Almost anywhere else in the sport, that’s just a mildly stressful weekend, at worst. But make no mistake: In the here and now, it was impossible to interpret Saturday’s rain-delayed, 17-3 slog at South Florida any other way. For the first time in the Saban era, Bama as we know it is on the verge of an existential crisis.

If the red-alert rhetoric seemed a bit dramatic before, suddenly it’s inescapable. Rare as it was, the trip to Tampa was supposed to be a break from all that — a ritual slaughter that absolved the stench of the Crimson Tide’s Week 2 loss to Texas, rebuked the doomsayers, and reset expectations heading into conference play. The kind of game Alabama chalks in the win column as soon as it appears on the schedule years in advance. The kind the rest of the country has long ceased to acknowledge except as a score on the ticker.

And USF, a 34-point underdog with a grand total of 5 wins to its credit in the past 4 seasons, was an ideal sacrifice: The Bulls had lost their past 7 against Power 5 opponents by an average margin of 30.4 points. In 2022, they ranked dead last nationally in total defense and next-to-last in scoring. Alabama routinely dominates the USFs of the world, without exception, with nothing even remotely resembling a close call or even a 4-quarter contest against a nonpower opponent in the past 15 years.

Instead, it was the first afternoon in recent memory that the Tide looked not just uninspired but, offensively at least, unrecognizable. Their output in terms of points, total yards (310), yards per play (4.8) and first downs (15) all represented Saban-era lows vs. a non-power defense dating to 2008, and for most of the day were on pace to be much worse.

Quarterback Tyler Buchner, promoted to the starting lineup in place of the interception-prone Jalen Milroe, clearly failed his audition as QB1, finishing a dismal 5-for-14 for 34 yards before getting the hook at halftime with the score tied at 3-3. The next man into the breach, redshirt freshman Ty Simpson, hardly fared better, facing constant pressure and finishing with as many sacks (5) as completions. (For the record, USF’s 14 sacks for the entire 2022 season ranked 130th out of 131 teams, although this year’s defense has been significantly revamped via the portal under a new coaching staff.) The wide receivers as a group accounted for 49 yards with a long gain of 14. It wasn’t until Bama finally decided to put the passing game in the freezer on its final drive of the day, an 11-play, 80-yard march consisting entirely of runs, that it finally extended the lead to two scores in the closing seconds.

Taken on its own, it might be possible to dismiss a bad day in bad conditions as an uncharacteristic lapse. The defense did its part, holding USF out of the end zone — out of the red zone, in fact; the Bulls’ deepest penetration was the Bama 21-yard line, resulting in a turnover on downs — and when the hairs really started to stand on end in the second half, the offense was still able to lean on the ground game to get over. USF’s only points came courtesy of a fluke special teams play that set the Bulls up in field goal range.

At no point was the Tide actually at risk of losing, nor did the thought really register that they might. (According to ESPN’s Win Probability metric, USF’s chances peaked at 19.3% midway through the third quarter. Imagine the emotional Chernobyl that would have ensued if it really gone down to the wire.) As long as we’re being charitable, even the doomed quarterback experiment had a certain logic to it: If you’ve decided you owe it to the team to find out what Buchner and/or Simpson bring to the table, what better time to do it than against one of the most beatable teams on the schedule?

In context, though, it was too obviously part of a broader pattern of lapses that represent some new crack in the facade. Saban preaches constantly about playing up to “the standard,” not the opponent on any given weekend, but post-pandemic the standard keeps getting take down a notch. The epic winning streak vs. unranked opponents was finally snapped in 2021, on the same night as Saban’s perfect record vs. his former assistants. (He’s since lost twice more to former protégés.) After a close call in 2022, the epic regular-season winning streak vs. nonconference opponents finally fell in emphatic fashion last week against Texas, Alabama’s first non-con loss outside of the month of January since Saban’s first season in 2007. (The 10-point margin of defeat against the Longhorns was also, incredibly, the largest in Bryant-Denny since ’07.) Prior to Saturday, the last time the Tide failed to dispatch a major underdog by less than 20 points? September 2008.

Now, we’ve been around long enough to know better than to start engraving the tombstone for the Bama dynasty in full public view while it’s still very much alive and the current edition has yet to even open conference play. That’s not what this is. Man-for-man, the roster remains arguably the most talented in America, as ever, and no one needs to reminded that apparently flawed Alabama teams have rebounded from regular-season setbacks to play for and win championships many times before. This team, as narrow as its margin for error may be, still has the same opportunity in front of it.

What it does not have, in contrast to all of Saban’s previous contenders, is an identity. Absorbing a lapse or two is one thing for a team that also demonstrates championship upside. But what is Alabama’s upside in 2023? At what feels like the lowest ebb of the Saban era, what is the way forward?

At quarterback, the decision to bench Milroe following his 2-interception outing against Texas mainly served to reinforce that they probably got it right the first time. Despite his mistakes — and both of the picks vs. the Longhorns were certainly his mistakes — Milroe’s combination of downfield arm strength and elite mobility brings a big-play dimension to the offense that, based on their auditions, Buchner and Simpson simply do not.

Under different circumstances, maybe the ol’ “game manager” template might be the ticket. But the throwback approach that carried the day against USF is not a blueprint against the top half of the schedule. The conventional running game (ie the running backs, as opposed to Milroe freelancing) didn’t move the needle at all against Texas. Neither did the pass rush on defense, which barely laid a hand on UT quarterback Quinn Ewers, with disastrous results for the secondary. Meanwhile, Alabama’s wobbly pass protection was just as much of a liability in Tampa as it was in Week 2, when Texas pressured Milroe on nearly half of his drop-backs and sacked him 5 times.

If there was a Derrick Henry or Najee Harris to hand off to 25 times per game, and a defense that could be trusted to hold good offenses below 20 points, fine, go ahead and dust off the Jacob Coker Plan. Given that the Tide are currently 0-for-2 on those counts, they’re going to have prioritize explosiveness to put points on the board when it matters — even if it means suffering more volatility than they’re accustomed to. (Let’s call it the Jameis Winston Plan.) With a little seasoning, Milroe still represents that kind of upside.

But seasoning takes time, and Saban has never been known for his patience with growing pains at the most important position. And settling on a quarterback, while pivotal, is not the only variable. Who can the Tide trust among an underachieving bunch of wideouts? They spent all of 2022 waiting for someone to separate from the pack, and they’re still waiting. It’s increasingly likely at this point that the next great Bama receiver is still in high school.

Who do they trust up front? True freshman left tackle Kadyn Proctor has had a particularly rough start to his college career (see above), but then, there’s a reason he’s in the fire instead of someone else. The veterans have all had their issues, too, up to and including the sport’s most basic operation, the shotgun snap from center.

That’s a roundabout way of saying the unresolved questions extend well beyond who’s taking the snaps, and there’s not much time to get them squared away: Ole Miss is in Tuscaloosa this weekend for the SEC opener (as a 6.5-point underdog, for what it’s worth), with Texas A&M (in College Station), Tennessee, and LSU looming. As raggedy as the Crimson Tide have looked the past 2 weeks, all of their goals are still in front of them. The top of the SEC West is wide open for the taking, and they have 2 1/2 months to build up steam toward a potential SEC Championship collision with Georgia.

It’s a long year. Anything is possible. It’s just that, all of a sudden, it’s hard to tell whether that sounds more like an opportunity or a threat.

Florida finds its fight

On the opposite end of the emotional spectrum, there’s Florida, which faced its first real must-win test of Billy Napier’s tenure against Tennessee and aced it in as satisfying fashion as the raucous home crowd could have hoped for. The Gators limped into the game with a 4-8 record under Napier vs. Power 5 opponents and no sense of forward momentum coming off an opening-day flop at Utah. They came out of it with a 29-16 upset and proof of concept of what winning football under the Napier administration looks like without Anthony Richardson behind center.

On offense, it looked a lot like Napier’s last stop, Louisiana — run-first, possession-oriented, at its best playing from ahead – and like pretty much the attack that managed just 11 points in Salt Lake City. Against the Utes, Florida struggled to stay on the field, managing all of 13 yards rushing and a single 3rd-down conversion on 13 attempts. Against the Volunteers on Saturday, the running game was the engine, fueled largely by sophomore RB Trevor Etienne’s 172 yards on 23 carries; the Gators converted 7-of-14 3rd downs, and racked up a 15-minute advantage in time of possession — the equivalent of a full quarter that Tennessee’s offense wasn’t on the field. After the Vols’ first possession, a quick touchdown drive to open the scoring, they only touched the ball 2 more times with the margin within a touchdown.

Unlike Richardson, Graham Mertz isn’t going to win any beauty contests for his stature or his game. When the offense is working, less from the quarterback is more. Again, a tale of 2 games: Mertz’s high-volume stat line at Utah (31-for-44, 333 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) yielded a dismal 36.1 rating per ESPN’s Total QBR metric, dragged down by the interception (not his fault) and 5 sacks (only kinda his fault). Contrast that to his relatively pedestrian line against Tennessee (19-for-24, 166 yards, 1 TD), which produced a stellar 91.6 rating in a game in which Mertz didnt attempt a pass 20+ yards downfield. You don’t need to understand the inner workings of QBR to get the gist: The less he has to do beyond hitting his marks, the better.

Georgia: All in a day’s work

On a different Saturday, Georgia’s come-from-behind, 24-14 win over South Carolina might have raised more eyebrows. The Bulldogs trailed at the half, 14-3, and for a few soggy minutes it seemed plausible that they’d drawn the losing ticket in the Upset Lottery. Then they charged out of the locker room, scored 2 quick touchdowns to erase the deficit, and slammed the door shut early in the 4th quarter — a very businesslike comeback that unfolded quickly and decisively enough to feel like the natural state of affairs. The Gamecocks never threatened to regain the lead, and between the close calls involving Alabama, Florida State, and Colorado — not to mention Florida’s outright upset over Tennessee — the defending champs’ latest slow start against a feisty division rival wasn’t worth dwelling on.

In fact, against a backloaded schedule, it’s still possible that they won’t play another game worth dwelling on until well into November, at the earliest. Based on the updated AP poll, Georgia’s only remaining ranked opponents are Florida (newly minted at No. 25), Ole Miss (15) and Tennessee (23), all games that could potentially arrive with enormous hype or as just another perfunctory hurdle for the Dawgs to clear on their way back to the postseason, depending on how those outfits perform between now and then.

The trajectories at Florida and Ole Miss are both anybody’s guess. Before Saturday the Vols projected as the biggest threat in Knoxville; that’s TBD now, although the Vols have plenty of chances to play their way back into the top 10.

In the meantime, trying to discern when Georgia is distracted, when it’s actually in a fight, and when it’s just playing with its food figures to be a recurring theme. At various points on Saturday all of the above could have been true.

Commodores collapse in Vegas

I’m always trying to write about Vanderbilt and wish more readers cared about Vanderbilt. But the Dores’ 40-37 loss at UNLV must be acknowledged at length, for all of the following reasons:

  • Vandy jumped out to a quick 17-0 lead, sparked by a pick-6 on its first defensive possession.
  • UNLV responded with a 30-0 run of its own, capitalizing on 4 Vandy turnovers in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.
  • Vandy, juggling 2 quarterbacks, rallied to tie the score, 30-30, with just under 5 minutes remaining in the 4th.
  • The offenses subsequently traded 2 more touchdowns on drives that took a combined 3:35 off the clock, leaving the score knotted at 37-37 with a little over a minute to play.
  • UNLV, regaining possession with time for 1 final drive in regulation, promptly threw an interception on the first play.
  • Vandy, blessed with a short field and a chance at a walk-off field goal, managed to take just 16 seconds off the clock before missing a 33-yard chip shot to take the lead.
  • UNLV, regaining possession again with a chance to win in regulation, took full advantage of the mulligan on a 48-yard connection from QB Jayden Maiava to Michigan State transfer Ricky White with the clock ticking under 10 seconds…

https://twitter.com/TSV__1/status/1703239486040318178

… exploiting a freshman corner in coverage and setting up a 35-yard, game-winning kick by the Runnin’ Rebels’ Jose Pizano on the next play.

UNLV’s social media team, seizing the rare opportunity to get one over on a nominal Power 5 opponent, capped the upset by adding a little insult to injury:

Who’s going to tell them Vanderbilt doesn’t really count? Maybe SDS readers can drop them a DM.

Superlatives

The week’s best individual performances.

1. LSU QB Jayden Daniels and WR Malik Nabers. The most common knock on Daniels’ game since last season has been his reluctance to push the ball downfield. Not in Saturday’s blowout win over Mississippi State: He was flawless throwing long, dropping all 4 of his attempts of 20+ yards against the Bulldogs into Nabers’ waiting hands like a stork delivering a baby.

Daniels’ final line in Starkville: 30-for-34, 361 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air, plus another 64 yards and 2 TDs rushing in a 41-14 laugher. The vast majority of that output came in collaboration with his favorite target, who set career highs for catches (13) and yards (239) and hauled in both scores. If they weren’t already, after Saturday, Daniels and Nabers are head and shoulders above any other pass-catch combo in the SEC — and secondaries should be doing everything in their power to avoid leaving Nabers matched up 1-on-1 with a safety.

Now, if only LSU can figure out how to curb Daniels’ casually self-destructive habit of leaping into unnecessarily brutal hits as a runner, which for some reason he cannot stop doing.

That tackle resulted in an outrageous targeting flag against MSU’s Shawn Preston, who was subsequently booted from the game (and the first half this week against South Carolina) for tackling a live runner who may as well have been actively seeking to get crushed. That’s at least the 2nd time in 3 weeks Daniels has opened himself up to a big hit by leaving his feet. Stop doing that!

2. Alabama OLBs Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell. The defense’s success against USF was overshadowed by the offense’s failures, but Crimson Tide’s veteran bookends were as dominant as advertised, finishing with a combined 14 tackles, 20 QB pressures and 6 tackles for loss, including 4 sacks. Per PFF, South Florida quarterback Byrum Brown was pressured on 48.8% of his 43 drop-backs, completing just 1-for-6 attempts under duress while devoting the rest of his afternoon to scramble drills.

3. Missouri WR Luther Burden III. Burden has been on breakout watch since early last season, and finally made his move on a national stage in the Tigers’ down-to-the-wire, 30-27 upset over Kansas State. His 114 receiving yards set a new career high for the 3rd consecutive game, and his 2 touchdowns marked his 4th game with multiple TDs.

Clearly he’s arrived in Year 2 as the full-blown, all-purpose star his massive recruiting hype predicted. Now, he just needs to work on his acting.

4. Florida RB Trevor Etienne. Etienne’s raw numbers against Tennessee (172 yards, 1 TD on 7.5 per attempt) were impressive enough. Then you read that, per PFF, just shy of 70% of that output came after contact, courtesy of 9 broken tackles. Another young player who has arrived as a bona fide headliner.

5. Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart. Dart threw for 251 yards and a touchdown against Georgia Tech, and added a career-high 136 yards and 2 TDs as a runner in a 48-23 win. Next up: Alabama in Tuscaloosa, and opportunity to raise his profile dramatically.

— — —
Honorable Mention: Texas A&M QB Conner Weigman , who finished 29-for-37 for 337 yards and a touchdown in the Aggies’ blowout win over UL-Monroe. … His top receivers, Ainias Williams and Jahdae Walker, who combined for 237 of those yards on 12 catches. … Ole Miss WRs Jordan Watkins and Dayton Wade, who were on the receiving end of 205 of Jaxson Dart’s 251 passing yards against Georgia Tech. … Kentucky RB Ray Davis , who racked up 169 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs on just 10 touches in a 35-3 rout of Akron. … Alabama RB Roydell Williams, who piled up 128 yards on 8.0 per carry against USF, the vast majority of it after halftime. … Alabama DB Malachi Moore, who had 8 tackles (1 for loss) and an interception that ended the Bulls’ final scoring threat in the 4th quarter. … Georgia DB Tykee Smith, who allowed just 21 yards on 8 targets in UGA’s win over South Carolina and came down with the game-clinching INT. … South Carolina DT TJ Sanders, who registered 9 tackles, 2 TFLs and a deflected pass in a losing effort. … Arkansas DE Landon Jackson, who had 4 TFLs in the Razorbacks’ 38-31 loss to BYU. … LSU LB Harold Perkins, who had a sack, a PBU and a team-high 82.5 PFF grade in coverage against Mississippi State. … And Missouri kicker Harrison Mevis, whose 61-yard, game-winning field goal as time expired against Kansas State went in the books as the longest successful kick in SEC history.

Fat guy of the week

Georgia OL Tate Ratledge wore the No. 77 jersey against South Carolina in honor of his late teammate, Devin Willock, and did justice to the distinction. Ratledge played all 80 of UGA’s offensive snaps at right guard, earning the 2nd-highest PFF run grade (80.2) of any full-time SEC linemen on the weekend while holding opposing rushers without a QB hit or hurry as a pass blocker. He also had the key blocks on 2 of the Dawgs’ 3 touchdown runs in the second half, paving the way for Daijun Edwards from 7 yards out in the 3rd quarter …

https://twitter.com/TSV__1/status/1703157994798862807

… and Cash Jones from 13 yards out in the 4th:

If you’re the kind of guy who identifies as mullet-curious in the year 2023, that is the way to back it up. (The only way.)

Catch of the year of the week

With BYU and Arkansas deadlocked at 31-31 midway through the 4th quarter, BYU’s Chase Roberts went up with 1 hand to snag a high throw from QB Kedon Slovis and came down in the end zone with one of the weekend’s wildest grabs.

When it was all said and done, it also turned out to be the difference in a 38-31 upset, only the Cougars’ 2nd-ever win in an SEC stadium. With that, the SEC fell to 5-7 against the other Power 5 leagues this season.

Power rankings

1. Georgia (3-0). I still don’t have much of a feel for the Dawgs, and stand by my preseason prediction that their bid for a 3-peat will ultimately come up short. But they remain one of the exceedingly few teams in the country that it’s possible to trust right now from one week to the next. (Last week: 1)

2. LSU (2-1). Unless Mississippi State turns out to be much worse than anyone suspected (very possible), taking the Bulldogs to the woodshed in Starkville goes down as the most impressive performance by an SEC team to date this season. (LW: 5)

3. Ole Miss (3-0). I’d like to see the Rebels pull one off in Tuscaloosa before I elevate them out of the “dark horse” column. As far as the opportunity goes, though, the path to the top of the SEC West may be as wide-open open right now as it’s been since the SEC West has existed. (LW: 4)

4. Alabama (2-1). My grill doesn’t run hot enough to start tossing out takes about Nick Saban’s successor just yet. But if the bad vibes persist against Ole Miss, it might be time. (LW: 3)

5. Florida (2-1). A huge leap for the Gators this week following a huge win for the Billy Napier project. We’re not talking about competing with Georgia at the top of the East or anything, but suffice to say they can safely set their sights higher than eking out a winning record. (LW: 13)

6. Tennessee (2-1). It’s not an excuse for the result in a 13-point defeat, but Josh Heupel had a legitimate beef with the refs on a high-stakes 4th-and-1 attempt in the 3rd quarter: As soon as the ball was marked short, Tennessee’s offense hurried to the line for a quick snap with Florida’s defense on its heels — the Vols did not substitute, so there was no obligation to give Florida time to run on its own subs — only to be forced to wait anyway because an official accidentally kicked the ball off the spot. Officials held up play while UT’s sideline fumed; the Gators regrouped, subbed, and easily stuffed the subsequent run for a game-changing turnover on downs.

Now, was Tennessee still left with a perfectly good opportunity to convert after the gaffe? Of course. Florida made the play, along with most of the other plays. But only after the Vols’ best chance in a crucial moment was booted off the table. (LW: 2)

7. Missouri (3-0). If you were confused about the penalty flag on Harrison Mevis’ walk-off, 61-yard bomb against Kansas State — join the club! — Eli Drinkwitz explained after the game that the flag was on the Wildcats for having 2 players on the field wearing the same number. (Hey, Florida can relate.) That accounts for why the officials declined to make any kind of announcement to clarify the situation amid the ensuing pandemonium: It wouldn’t have made any difference, anyway. But let’s be real, in that scene, what else were they gonna do?

Logistically, when a kick from that distance hits home, the clock hits zero, and the field is immediately invaded by an army of adrenaline-rushing partisans, the game is over whether the refs have anything to say about it or not. (LW: 12)

8. Kentucky (3-0). We’ve heard a lot about Georgia’s slow starts against inferior competition, but in their 3 wins over Ball State, Eastern Kentucky and Akron, the Wildcats have managed just 4 total offensive touchdowns in the first half. (LW: 8)

9. Texas A&M (2-1). The Aggies have looked great in a couple of preordained massacres against New Mexico and UL-Monroe, offsetting a depressing loss at Miami. Saturday’s SEC opener against Auburn is a big one for recalibrating expectations in conference play. (LW: 9)

10.uburn. The most notable development in the Tigers’ 45-13 win over Samford was QB Payton Thorne’s emergence as a viable runner — his 123 yards on 11 carries led the team, by far, and might have just rendered backup Robby Ashford’s role as an occasional Wildcat option redundant. (LW: 10)

11. Arkansas (2-1). The Razorbacks blew 2 double-digit leads in their 38-31 loss to BYU, allowing the Cougars to rally from a 14-0 deficit in the first half and a 31-21 hole in the second. After scoring a quick touchdown on their opening possession of the second half, the Hogs were outscored 17-0 over the final 26:41. (LW: 6)

12. Mississippi State (2-1). As outmanned as the defense was against LSU, the offense only made the situation worse with its inability to stay on the field: The Bulldogs opened the game with 5 consecutive punts, 4 of them following 3-and-outs. The post-Air Raid identity remains very much TBD. (LW: 7)

13. South Carolina (1-2). In both of Carolina’s losses, Spencer Rattler has looked sharp for the better part of the game, until his o-line visibly disintegrates in comeback mode. (The absence of his best receiver, Antwane “Juice” Wells, hasn’t helped, either; Wells didn’t play at all in the opener against UNC and was carted off in the first half against Georgia after suffering an apparent broken foot.) The Gamecocks have to figure out some facsimile of a running game or risk Rattler getting beaten to a pulp on a weekly basis. (LW: 11)

14. Vanderbilt (2-2). It was entertaining if you didn’t care who won, but from Vandy’s perspective, the roller-coaster loss at UNLV was arguably the worst of Clark Lea’s tenure to date. Whatever hope existed of scratching out bowl eligibility in Year 3 was effectively stuffed out before the start of conference play. (LW: 14)

Moment of Zen of the week