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SEC Football

Monday Down South: Georgia’s bid for a 3-peat is in a class of its own

Matt Hinton

By Matt Hinton

Published:


Weekly takeaways, trends and technicalities from the weekend’s SEC action.

In this week’s edition of Monday Down South …

  • Florida’s defensive issues flare up again
  • Auburn’s wake-up call
  • Jayden Daniels shows no mercy
  • Week 12 Superlatives and updated Power Rankings

… and more! But first:

Three has no company

Week by week, Georgia continues to separate itself from the pack. With the postseason looming, the Bulldogs’ 38-10 beatdown of Tennessee on Saturday reaffirmed the defending champs (again) as the team to beat, to such an extent that the national championship race effectively boils down (again) to Georgia vs. The Field. The win in Knoxville marked their 28th straight, matching the SEC record, and their 3rd in as many weeks against ranked opponents. The Dawgs are healthy, hitting their stride and clearly look like the best team in America (again).

So, since it’s going to be coming up a lot over the next few weeks, let’s get one thing straight: If Georgia pulls off the 3-peat, it’s the first. There’s no need to hedge or put an asterisk by it. It’s not just the first in the “modern era.” It should be recognized as the first, period.

You might have heard otherwise, or soon will if you haven’t. The long, convoluted history of the “national championship” is full of obscure and dubious claims to the throne, many of of which are touted by the interested schools, and the grainier the footage gets, the harder it is to tell a legitimate title from a paper crown awarded by some guy crunching numbers on his lunch break years after the fact. It’s also tedious, unless you’re the kind of person who enjoys parsing the vagaries of the Houlgate System, the Litkenhous Ratings and the Dunkel Power Index.

Who gets to say what counts as a legitimate title and what doesn’t? Well, nobody, is the problem. The NCAA doesn’t try; it has never awarded a national championship in big-time football itself, and its official record book acknowledges just about anyone who managed to publish a final ranking at any point in the 20th Century as a “major selector.”

Many of the older championship claims were awarded retroactively to teams that were never acknowledged as “national champions” in their own time. On at least one occasion, a sitting U.S. president unilaterally declared the champion himself. The situation was a mess well into the 1990s, when the series of evolutionary steps that would eventually lead to the Playoff began in earnest with the Bowl Coalition.

Anyway, quite a few teams claim a 3-peat at some point along the way — all of which the rest of the country should politely ignore. As far as the national consensus concerned, there should be 2 criteria for judging the legitimacy of some moldering old claim: 1) It was acknowledged in real time, not retroactively; and 2) It was awarded by an organization widely recognized across the sport.

The first criteria eliminates a huge swath of would-be titles, including almost everything claimed prior to the introduction of the Associated Press poll in 1936. In fact, we may as well go ahead and agree to start the clock for this exercise in ’36, prior to which there was no widely accepted notion of a “national champion.” There were a few contemporary efforts to acknowledge the One True Champ prior to that year, all of them short-lived and pell-mell. Of course, the AP poll itself was initially more of a sports-page gimmick than some sort of official record — apparently ranking stuff engaged readers in the Great Depression just as well as it does on the Internet. Over time, though, it’s the one that stuck, and it set the model for the other media polls (including the Coaches’ poll) that came along later and together formed the idea of the “national championship” for the rest of the 20th Century. Flawed as it may be, it’s the only consistent standard we have for most of that span.

The polls, then, also form the basis of the second criteria. Although the NCAA sets a low bar for what it deems as a “major selector,” it also goes out of its way to distinguish 5 long-running polls — the AP, United Press International, the Football Writers Association of America, the National Football Foundation and USA Today — from the mathematical formulas and the kitchen-table enthusiasts. Teams that finished No. 1 in any of those polls in a given year are designated as “consensus” champions, and are the only teams listed on the NCAA’s official website. That’s a solid, accessible baseline for what can realistically be considered a “widely recognized” title.

So … drawing the line at 1936, we can dismiss any championship claimed prior to that by any member of the Ivy League, or by Michigan, as well as the first 4 of Alabama’s 18 title claims, none of which were acknowledged at the time. More important for our purposes, we can also cross off the first 2 years of Minnesota’s alleged 3-peat from 1934-36, the one you’re most likely to hear referenced as the answer to the trivia question whenever somebody says the “first time since …”  The Gophers have a legitimate title via the inaugural AP poll in ’36. But their claims in ’34 and ’35 hinge largely on retroactive recognition from organizations like the Helms Foundation, the National Championship Foundation, and the College Football Researchers Association that did not exist in the 1930s. Contemporary selectors were of the obscure variety. Sorry, Gophers. You’ll always have the Toledo Cup.

Ditto for Army’s claim to a 3-peat from 1944-46: The ’44 and ’45 titles hold up, but Army was edged out in the final AP poll of ’46 by Notre Dame, with whom it had famously played to a scoreless tie in Yankee Stadium a few weeks before. In a just world, Army would have earned a split decision; in the actual ledger, its claims for that season are all retroactive and/or too obscure to count.

No other school in the subsequent three quarters of a century bothers to claim a 3-peat, not even Bama. Winning 2 in a row is rare enough; prior to Georgia’s current run, the only back-to-back titles in the BCS/Playoff era belonged to USC in 2003-04 (counting the Trojans’ claim to the AP crown in 2003) and Alabama in 2011-12. The great Bush-Leinart teams at USC came as close as it’s possible to come without pulling it off, famously failing to slam the door in the January 2006 Rose Bowl. Alabama’s 3-peat bid in 2013 was abruptly ended by the Kick-6. No one else in living memory has managed to come within driving distance.

All of which is to say that if Georgia goes all the way again — still a very significant if — it will be in defiance of any relevant precedent, modern or otherwise. In a sport with the ritual turnover of college football, 2 years is the natural lifespan of a championship core. Replacing a highly decorated, long-tenured quarterback and more than a dozen Day 1 or Day 2 draft picks over 2 years is not an automatic proposition, no matter how many blue-chip recruits are waiting in the wings. Between the SEC Championship Game against Alabama and two playoff games, there’s a long way to go before the top of the mountain comes back into view. When it does, though, the Bulldogs have the opportunity to plant their flag alongside the previous two secure in their unique place in history.

[/bangs gavel]

Florida: Facing the music

1945, ’46, and ’47. If you’re keeping track, that’s the last time Florida endured 3 consecutive losing seasons: In the immediate aftermath of World War II. After Saturday’s 33-31 loss at Missouri, the Gators’ 4th in a row, they’re just one L from the 2021, ’22, and ‘23 teams officially resetting that clock at zero.

There’s never any shortage of blame to go around when you’re 5-6, all of which Billy Napier will be forced to confront over what promises to be a very long offseason. (Let’s skip the drama for now and assume Napier is back for Year 3.) In this particular case, though, a good place to start the autopsy might be a defense that has spent much of the season living out the Man Kicking Gator meme on a weekly basis. In SEC play, Florida ranks last or next-to-last in the league in:

• Total defense (14th)
• Scoring defense (13th)
• Rushing defense (14th)
• Passing defense (14th)
• Pass efficiency defense (13th)
• Yards per play allowed (14th)
• Plays of 10+, 20+, 30+ and 40+ yards allowed (14th)
• Sacks (13th)
• Tackles for loss (13th)

The best thing you can say about that unit is that it hasn’t been on the field all that much, facing just shy of 60 snaps per game for the season. When it is, though, it’s usually hanging on for dear life. All 8 SEC opponents averaged at least 6.0 yards per play, with 5 of them — including Missouri on Saturday night — averaging more than 7.0 yards. In those games, the Gators have allowed more yards per play (7.44) than any other FBS defense against its own conference slate.

It probably goes without saying, but given that “recruiting” tends to show up near the top of the list of Florida’s woes, it’s worth noting that, on paper, anyway, the defense is still a relatively blue-chip group compared to any SEC lineup this side of Georgia, Alabama and maybe Texas A&M. It’s not an especially green one, either. Of the top 10 defenders in terms of snap counts against Missouri, all 10 are former 4- or 5-star prospects, and all but 3 are in at least their 3rd year in college football. (The 2 most notable absences on Saturday, linebackers Scooby Williams and Shemar James, check both of those boxes, as well.) This was supposed to be the group that took a step forward this year opposite a nondescript offense. Instead, while the offense has trended in the right direction over the course of the season, the defense has only regressed.

The consensus in Gainesville is that Napier’s bosses are reluctant to cut bait after just 2 years, especially at a program that just went through its third spin on the doomed head coach cycle in a decade. No one is in any hurry for Napier to make it 4-for-4. A good old-fashioned coordinator purge, however, may be unavoidable. The low-hanging fruit on that tree is the so-called “GameChanger Coordinator,” Chris Couch, whose duties include overseeing Florida’s cursed kicking game; his departure could make room for Napier, who handles play-calling himself, to hire an actual offensive coordinator to take over those duties. (Also: Does the staff really need a second o-line coach?) Then there’s the defensive coordinator, 30-year-old Austin Armstrong, he of the rapid rise from a quality control role at Georgia to being handed the keys to an SEC defense at $1.1 million a year in under 4 years. Based on the initial returns this season, maybe a little too rapid.

Armstrong spent 1 season on Napier’s staff at Louisiana, as linebackers coach in 2020, before going on to serve 2 years overseeing the defense at Southern Miss. Before Napier tapped him as the Gators’ DC in February, Armstrong was on his way to Alabama to take over as inside linebackers coach under Nick Saban, a more conventional trajectory for an up-and-coming assistant. The money was better in Gainesville; the results, clearly, were not. If Florida does decide to move on, Armstrong’s road back to a million-dollar coordinator gig could turn out be a lengthier one than the track he was on in Tuscaloosa. (And yes, typing the words “million-dollar coordinator” makes my fingers break out in an allergic reaction.)

At any rate, there is one last chance to swerve from the abyss this weekend against still undefeated but suddenly shorthanded Florida State. The Seminoles’ offense with anyone but Jordan Travis behind center is a mystery; ditto Florida’s offense minus Graham Mertz, who exited in the second half at Missouri with what Napier described as a “significant” collarbone injury. Their respective understudies, Tate Rodemaker (FSU) and Max Brown (Florida), both saw the first meaningful action of their careers off the bench on Saturday, and are both due to make their first career starts in a pitched environment in The Swamp. It’s much too late for the Gators to paper over their longstanding issues heading into the offseason, but if the defense is capable of anything like a high note, this weekend would the ideal time to hit it.

Auburn: Aggs on its face

I certainly didn’t wake up on Saturday morning expecting to pay much attention to Auburn’s date against New Mexico State, much less devote part of my weekend to analyzing an upset in a game the Tigers were favored to win by more than 3 touchdowns. And truth be told, there’s not a whole lot to analyze. The 31-10 final score pretty well sums it up: New Mexico State, looking very much like the 9-3 outfit it is, went into Jordan-Hare and whipped its heavily favored hosts up and down the field.

The Aggies outgained Auburn by 200 yards (414 to 213), gained nearly twice as many first downs (23 to 12), and racked up a nearly 18-minute advantage in time of possession. They scored on 5 of their 7 full possessions, including 3 straight touchdown drives to close the game. Auburn ran a grand total of 45 plays and only crossed midfield twice. No gimmicks, no doubts.

With that, the brief Auburn boomlet that accompanied a 3-game winning steak over Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Arkansas is over, with not nearly as much to show for it as the Tigers had hoped. It really was just 3 bad teams getting beat by a slightly less bad team. Outside of that context, Auburn reverted to what it had been for much of the season: A low-octane attack determined to set up the pass with the run, but not quite good enough to accomplish either. Their 10 points against NMSU matched their lowest total of the season, against Texas A&M, and just barely exceeded their paltry output in College Station for total offense..

If it’s easy to exaggerate how much “momentum” Auburn had at its back before this game — wishful thinking with the Iron Bowl on deck. But it’s possible to go too far into the other direction, too. The rebuild under Hugh Freeze is what we thought it was: A work in progress in Year 1. The question going forward is how much longer it’s going to take for that progress to stick for real.

Superlatives

The week’s best individual performances.

1. LSU QB Jayden Daniels. Daniels needed a monster number against Georgia State to stay on the Heisman radar, and Brian Kelly obliged, giving him the green light to lay an outmanned GSU defense to waste. LSU had 8 full offensive possessions on the night; Daniels personally accounted for touchdowns on all 8, letting it rip well into garbage time of a 56-14 blowout.

The final line: 25-for-30 passing, 519 total yards, 6 touchdowns through the air, 2 more on the ground, 3 different receivers over 100+ yards, astronomical ratings in terms of both efficiency (265.0) and Total QBR (98.8), even by Daniels’ own lofty standards. After his Week 11 bonanza against Florida, it feels like the rest of the country is finally getting Jayden-pilled. Which is a good thing, because it only keeps getting harder to come up with creative ways to convey the absurdity of his production this season beyond the weekly Mardi Gras parade of statistics.

2. Georgia QB Carson Beck. It can easy to dismiss Beck as a “system quarterback,” but it’s becoming more obvious by the week that within Georgia’s system, he has all the tools to take UGA the distance. He didn’t flinch in the win at Tennessee, finishing 24-for-30 for 298 yards, 3 touchdowns, and zero picks in the toughest environment he’s faced to date as a starter. He threw with timing, anticipation and accuracy, spreading the wealth among multiple receivers and converting 6-of-9 attempts on 3rd down.

In many ways, Beck is just a bigger version of Stetson Bennett IV, and he faces the same question Bennett faced for so much of his tenure behind Georgia’s elite offensive line: How will he hold up under pressure? In fact, Bennett never really had to, facing pressure last year on just 18.8% of his drop-backs, per PFF, the lowest rate in the Power 5. This year, Beck has faced pressure on just 15.9% of his drop-backs, 2nd nationally only to Oregon’s Bo Nix. His decisiveness in the pocket has as much to do with that number as the protection. Can you call it a weakness if no one ever manages to exploit it?

3. Missouri WR Luther Burden III. Burden’s production over the first half of the season proved too much to sustain, even for him. But was there never a chance he was going to stay flying under the radar for long, was there? Against Florida, he was back on his blistering September pace for the first time in weeks, finishing with 9 catches for 158 yards — the vast majority of that output coming after halftime as the game escalated into a shootout. When it’s all said and done, his clutch reception on 4th-and-17 to extend what turned out to be the game-winning drive might go down as the most memorable play of what was already Mizzou’s most memorable campaign in years.

With that, Burden is officially the Tigers’ first 1,000-yard receiver since 2017 and officially back in the running for All-America notices in a crowded year for the distinction.

4. Mississippi State LBs Nathaniel Watson and Jett Johnson. The box score of Mississippi State’s 41-20 win over Southern Miss credited Watson and Johnson with a combined 39 tackles, a stunning number even before you consider the fact that nearly all of them came in tandem: The bookkeeper in Starkville only saw fit to record 5 of those stops under the solo column, marking the rest as assists. Make of that what you will. (PFF’s accounting varies dramatically, for what it’s worth.) By any measure, the Bulldogs’ resident ball hawks were all over the field. In addition to the bulk tackles, they generated 4 tackles for loss; a strip sack by Watson that set up a field goal; and an interception by Johnson that put the game on ice after he lateraled the ball to teammate Marcus Banks for a roundabout pick-6.

Unfortunately for Jett, there’s no category for that kind of assist.

5. Arkansas DB Alfahiym Walcott. Walcott, a transfer from Baylor, has had a quietly solid year as a Hog in a season when very little else has gone right. On Saturday, he had 2 INTs in a 44-20 win over Florida International, highlighted by a second-quarter theft that can only be described as a “strip-6.”

That did go in the books as an interception, for the record, and broke a tight game wide open: From that point on the Razorbacks outscored FIU 30-7.

Fat guy of the week: Kentucky DT Deone Walker

The 6-6, 348-pound Walker is a massive presence in the middle of Kentucky’s d-line in every sense of the term, and never more so than in the Wildcats’ 17-14 loss at South Carolina. Scoreboard notwithstanding, he turned in the most complete performance of his young career. As a pass rusher, Walker generated 5 QB pressures and a sack; against the run, he recorded a season-high 8 “stops,” per PFF, which it defines as tackles that constitute a “failure” for the offense based on down and distance. “Failure” pretty much sums up the Gamecocks’ ground game on Saturday all the way around: As a team, they managed just 50 yards rushing on 1.5 per carry.

Honorable Mention: Missouri RB Cody Schrader, who followed up last week’s record-breaking outing against Tennessee by running for 148 yards in the Tigers’ win over Florida, his 6th 100-yard game of the season. … Florida RBs Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne, who combined for 216 yards on 7.2 per touch in a losing effort. … South Carolina DB Nick Emmanwori, who had a team-high 9 tackles and an interception in the Gamecocks’ defensively-driven win over Kentucky. … Alabama DB Caleb Downs, who had 7 tackles and took his first career punt return 85 yards for a touchdown in a 66-10 rout over Chattanooga. … Georgia WR Dillon Bell, who had career highs for receptions (5) and receiving yards (90), caught a touchdown pass, and threw for another in the Dawgs’ win over Tennessee. … Georgia DB Tykee Smith, who recorded a team-high 10 tackles on a typically stellar afternoon for the UGA defense. … Ole Miss WR Dayton Wade, who finished with 108 yards on 7 receptions in a 35-3 win over UL-Monroe. … And Missouri kicker Harrison Mevis, who connected on all 4 of his field-goal attempts against Florida, including the game-winner from 30 yards out in the final seconds.

–   –   –
The scoring system for players honored in Superlatives awards 8 points for the week’s top player, 6 for 2nd, 5 for 3rd, 4 for 4th, 3 for 5th, and 1 for honorable mention, because how honorable is it really if it doesn’t come with any points? Standings are updated weekly with the top 10 players for the season to date.

Obscure stat of the week

Tennessee is the SEC’s most penalized team this season, averaging 67.7 yards per game in infractions. At the same time, Tennessee’s opponents are the least penalized, averaging 36.3 yards in games against the Vols.

Quote of the week

“You got us over the hump tonight.” — South Carolina coach Shane Beamer, in his postgame handshake with Darude, aka the Finnish DJ who made “Sandstorm,” following the Gamecocks’ win over Kentucky.

SEC Power Rankings

Updating the food chain.

1. Georgia (11-0). Even with 4 other undefeated teams to contend with nationally, the Bulldogs’ grip on No. 1 is tightening. In the updated AP and Coaches’ polls they received 122 out of 125 first-place votes, their largest share of the season. (Last week: 1⬌)

2. Alabama (10-1). The list of opposing backs who have posted a 100-yard rushing game against Bama is short and distinguished, much like the latest name on it: Chattanooga’s Gino Appleberry, who finished with 104 yards on 22 carries against the Tide in a 66-10 loss. The biggest chunk of that total came on a career-long 40-yard touchdown run in the second quarter, the Mocs’ only TD of the game. Prior to Saturday, Appleberry only had 2 other 100-yard games on his résumé in his 6-year career at UTC, both  against the Virginia Military Institute. (LW: 2⬌)

3. Missouri (9-2). The Tigers opened up as 7.5-point favorites at Arkansas, the last remaining hurdle standing between them and a New Year’s 6 bowl. (LW: 3⬌)

4. Ole Miss (9-2). Last week, Lane Kiffin let it slip on his weekly radio show that junior QB Jaxson Dart was coming back for his senior year — a sensible move for a guy who is rarely touted as a top prospect in 2024. Still, talking to reporters following Saturday’s 35-3 win over UL-Monroe, Dart made a point of waving off that prediction as a case of Lane being Lane. “I haven’t really decided yet,” Dart said. “I think he kind of said that to kind of put positive vibes out there.” (LW: 4⬌)

5. LSU (8-3). Once Jayden Mania cools off, the big offseason priority will be rebuilding a pass rush that had almost none of its usual juice outside of the occasional cameo by Harold Perkins Jr. When not swooping in in his jack-of-all-trades role, Perkins has been significantly more likely to drop into coverage than rush the passer. But the rest of the every-down edge rotation seems increasingly doomed to obscurity. (LW: 5⬌)

6. Tennessee (7-4). With nothing in particular left to play for, the debate is on over the status of backup QB Nico Iamalavea: To redshirt, or not to redshirt? Iamalavea, the gem of the Vols’ 2023 recruiting class and presumptive starter in ’24, has played in 3 games this season off the bench, leaving him with 1 more free appearance on his sandwich card while keeping all 4 years of eligibility intact. As starter Joe Milton III’s stock has plummeted, though, many locals are restless to turn the page, redshirt be damned. The NCAA’s decision to exempt bowl games from the redshirt count in 2022 was only a 1-time waiver that is not in effect this season — at least, not yet. As it stands, handing Iamalavea the reins for the last 2 games (against Vanderbilt this weekend and a bowl game to be announced later) would cost him his first year of eligibility, in exchange for giving him a valuable head start on hitting the ground running as QB1 in Year 2. And let’s be real: If he’s as good as advertised, he won’t be around for a 5th year, anyway. And if he underwhelms … well, he won’t be around for a 5th year at Tennessee, anyway. (LW: 6⬌)

7. Texas A&M (7-4). We’ll see how interested the Aggies are in this weekend’s trip to LSU, where nothing is at stake except Jayden Daniels’ Heisman campaign and A&M fans are less interested in the result than in counting down to the introduction of the next head coach. A&M is 0-5 in Baton Rouge since joining the SEC, with 4 of those losses coming by double digits. (LW: 7⬌)

8. South Carolina (5-6). The Gamecocks, winners of 3 straight following a 2-6 start, can get bowl-eligible this weekend with an upset over Clemson. Notably, it will be a primetime kickoff in Columbia, where Carolina is now 11-2 under Shane Beamer in games that kicked off at 7 pm ET or later. (LW: 11⬆)

9. Kentucky (6-5). Technically, the Wildcats’ loss at South Carolina qualified as an upset, but it would be more accurate to call it par for the course: The past 2 seasons Kentucky is 9-0 in September and 4-11 thereafter. Offseason vibes in Lexington hinge on spoiling Louisville’s dream season in the finale. (LW: 8⬇)

10. Florida (5-6). The Gators are not quite at the point where a last-second loss at Missouri feels like a moral victory, but then again that might be due more to the circumstances than the result. Considering 4 of their previous 5 losses came by double digits, blowing a lead in the dying seconds against a top-10 team on the road almost qualifies as progress. (LW: 10⬌)

11. Auburn (6-5). The bottom half of the West is officially grim enough that getting dragged by New Mexico State doesn’t automatically land you in the basement. (LW: 9⬇)

12. Mississippi State (5-6). Anything can happen in the Egg Bowl, and probably has, at some point. State upsetting Ole Miss in Starkville to salvage bowl eligibility with an interim head coach would not even crack the top 5 weirdest things to happen in that rivalry. (LW: 12⬌)

13. Arkansas (4-7). Longtime ESPN color guy Rod Gilmore kicked up some dust during the Razorbacks’ win over FIU when he quoted Sam Pittman as telling the broadcast crew in a pregame interview “I am not being fired this year” — a conversation Pittman disputed. (Gilmore defended his statement on Sunday.) The confusing part of this minor episode is that Pittman, citing the negative effects on both recruiting and his family (in that order), pushed back so hard against a report that his job is secure. “I don’t think I’m getting fired, guys, or [athletic director Hunter Yurachek] would have told me I’m getting fired,” Pittman told reporters after the game… echoing more or less exactly the gist of Gilmore’s sentiments during the broadcast. In his next breath Pittman went on to criticize “media” for peddling opinions over facts. Something got lost in translation there.

Anyway, Yurachek resolved the question in both Pittman’s and Gilmore’s favor on Sunday by just tweeting it out: Pittman will indeed be back in 2024. (LW: 13⬌)

14. Vanderbilt (2-9). The Commodores opened the 2023 campaign in Week Zero, and they’ll end it by carrying the nation’s longest active losing streak into Tennessee following an open date. If their bodies and their brains are telling them the season is already over, maybe they should listen. (LW: 14⬌)

Moment of Zen of the week

• • •

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.

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