Monday Down South: Jalen Milroe comes full circle, just in time for Alabama's title drive
Weekly takeaways, trends, and technicalities from the weekend’s action.
In this week’s well-rested edition of Monday Down South …
- Jayden Daniels’ Heisman campaign turns into a pumpkin
- Florida’s flatlining rebuild
- Welcoming better-late-than-never members of the Gary Danielson fan club<
- Week 10 Superlatives, updated SEC Power Rankings
… and more! But first:
Jalen Milroe has arrived (for real this time)
One week into Milroe’s tenure as Alabama’s QB1, he was being hailed as a rising star. Two weeks in, he was being relegated to the bench. Every week since, he’s landed somewhere in the vast space between, gradually settling into one of the most scrutinized positions in the sport by alternating flashes of his enormous gifts and reminders that he remains a work in progress. Now, as the clocks roll back and the weather turns, it’s finally beginning to look like we had it right the first time.
For all the angst he’s generated along the way, Milroe’s breakout performance in Bama’s 42-28 win over LSU was the vision coming to fruition, right on schedule, in one of the small handful of games that really does qualify as a season-defining stage. More than just the season, in this case: Beyond the short-term, business-as-usual implications in the SEC West standings and the Playoff race, there was all of that — the “dynasty” stuff, the great unwinding that, coming off a rare also-ran campaign in 2022, has loomed over the season since before it even began. Milroe, the goat of the Crimson Tide’s alarming Week 2 loss to Texas, was at the center of the ensuing identity crisis. Two months and 7 consecutive wins later, he’s arguably the main reason that whole dynamic is beginning to feel more and more like a practical joke Nick Saban played on the rest of the sport.
THREE RUSHING TDs for Jalen Milroe!
He turned on the JETS to give @AlabamaFTBL the lead! pic.twitter.com/9K1SB8pVkb
— CBS Sports College Football ? (@CBSSportsCFB) November 5, 2023
Milroe has had his moments in every game, amid a broader backdrop of inconsistency. The version on display against LSU was the best that we’ve seen, by far, and the closest version Bama fans were promised when he was elevated to the top of the depth chart before the season — not a finished product, by a long shot, but a dynamic athlete whose raw talent and explosiveness more than compensate for his lack of polish. From the start, Milroe has insisted he’s a full-service pocket passer, and he clearly boasts the arm to back it up. But Bryce Young, he is not. Instead, with the season on the line and the pressure mounting to trade salvos with the nation’s highest-scoring offense, Milroe was himself, allowing his mobility to take over the game like the chosen one submitting to the Matrix. Excluding sacks, he ran 18 times for 167 yards and 4 touchdowns, the first 3 all coming in direct response to an LSU touchdown on the preceding possession. Seven of those runs gained 10+ yards, per Pro Football Focus, and 10 yielded first downs.
Altogether, Milroe accounted for 374 yards, a season high, and finished with an elite 96.4 Total QBR rating, well above his season average. Just as important, on a night where every possession represented a potential momentum swing: No fumbles, no picks. Alabama’s only punt came on its opening possession of the game; after that, the only possessions that didn’t reach the end zone resulted in 2 missed field goals and a kneel-down to end the game.
So, yeah, what crisis? Since reinstating Milroe as the starter as soon as Week 3 ended, the Tide are 6-0 in conference play, pulling within 1 win of clinching their 10th division title of Saban’s tenure; barring a stunning development, that win will come this weekend at Kentucky, leaving only the Iron Bowl between Bama and its annual birthright in the SEC Championship Game.
A team widely acknowledged as the most underwhelming of the Saban dynasty almost certainly controls its fate where the Playoff is concerned, behind a quarterback who has spent much of the season being cast as a weak link. Early on, there was a palpable sense that if this team won big, it would have be in spite of the quarterback, reverting to the defensively driven mindset of the first half of Saban’s tenure. That was visible in the string of games the Crimson Tide won at midseason without reaching 400 yards or 30 points on offense in any of them.
All the time, though, Milroe was growing into a quarterback increasingly capable of carrying his weight. Saturday was a milestone on that trajectory: A marquee, must-win game — for immediate reasons and existential ones — that the Tide would have had very little chance of winning without him. But it was also a notice that we’re still much closer to the beginning of his story than to the end.
Jayden fadin’?
Tragically, I don’t have the authority to decree who is or is not a legitimate Heisman candidate, but for my money Milroe is not — at least, not yet. He’s been a little too inconsistent over the course of the season, lags a little too much statistically behind the nation’s top passers, and has relied a little too much on the defense to keep things close while he struggled through the first half of some of his team’s biggest games. Saturday’s win over LSU was only the 2nd time since the opener Alabama has topped 30 points without the benefit of a defensive touchdown. (The other: A 40-17 win at Mississippi State in Week 5, which for the record also featured a defensive touchdown.) There is a lot to be said for shining brightest on the season’s biggest stage, and on that note Milroe can make a convincing final statement in the SEC Championship Game against (presumably) Georgia. Barring a huge game in Atlanta, he’s going to have to wait until next year, where he is very clearly on schedule to open the ’24 season on the short list of Heisman favorites.
Jayden Daniels, on the other hand, I’m still rooting for to wind up on stage in New York despite the headwinds now blowing against him. The first big caveat, of course, is his health: Daniels spent nearly the entire 4th quarter Saturday night in the medical tent after getting waylaid by Alabama’s Dallas Turner, reportedly in concussion protocol. As of Sunday night, there hadn’t been any update on his prognosis for LSU’s last 3 games, but at this point it would come as no surprise if the word “concussion” signaled the end of his season and college career. (The parallels to Hendon Hooker, another prolific, dual-threat transfer who flew a little too close to the sun before a combination of high-profile losses and an untimely injury derailed his campaign in 2022, remain depressingly on point.)
The Tigers’ championship hopes are kaput, and there is no reason whatsoever to potentially jeopardize Daniels’ rising NFL Draft stock for the sake of playing out the string against Florida, Georgia State and Texas A&M. He’s already played his way from a mid-round project into the first-round conversation; with that in mind, he shouldn’t consider putting on an LSU uniform again with anything less than a pristine bill of health.
Jayden Daniels was shaken up after taking this hit that was ruled roughing the passer. pic.twitter.com/4JKCTNnaPr
— CBS Sports College Football ? (@CBSSportsCFB) November 5, 2023
The second caveat is the fact that it’s almost impossible for a quarterback to win the Heisman after voters watch his team get bounced from the Playoff race in November. In the Playoff era, only 3 quarterbacks have made the trip to NYC as finalists after suffering a November/December loss that eliminated his team from the CFP: Lamar Jackson in 2016, CJ Stroud in 2021 and Caleb Williams in 2022. Every other finalist in that span led his team to either a Playoff berth or, in the case of Baker Mayfield in 2016, Dwayne Haskins in 2018, and Kenny Pickett in 2021, a sustained winning streak to end the regular season that culminated in a conference title. Daniels can close out the year looking like himself. But he cannot win a championship and, worse, he’s already presided over losses in LSU’s 3 biggest games against Florida State, Ole Miss and Alabama.
That might be that, if you’re willing to let the loss column dictate the final verdict. If not, Daniels’ actual week-in, week-out performance makes him much harder to dismiss. For one thing, he was wildly productive in each of the losses, averaging 435.0 total yards with 9 total touchdowns in games in which LSU’s defense has allowed 45, 55 and 42 points to opponents with a current combined record of 25-2.
Against Alabama, he accounted for 382 yards (219 passing, 163 rushing) and led 4 extended touchdown drives covering 70+ yards apiece in a little under 3 quarters. For another, he’s running the table statistically in nearly every major category to an extent even Heisman-caliber quarterbacks rarely achieve: First nationally in total offense, first in yards per attempt, first in passer rating, first in Total QBR, first in EPA, first in overall PFF grading, to check off the big ones.
In most of those categories, Daniels is ahead of the next guy by a significant margin; in all of them he’s residing alongside Heisman winners of recent vintage. He’s 2nd in touchdowns, with 33 to Caleb Williams’ 38, just to break the monotony. And even there, Williams (who, like last year, could make a similar argument for his individual brilliance opposite an even more flammable defense than LSU’s) has played in 1 more game and taken 89 more snaps.
Again, that all goes down as an obscure local folktale if Daniels’ season is done, or if his production declines down the stretch. Three-fourths of a Heisman-worthy season doesn’t get you all the way there, as Hendon Hooker can attest. For teams accustomed to living in the glare of the CFP race, the escalator to the Citrus Bowl can feel like a letdown. Given the respective stenches beginning to emanate from Florida and Texas A&M, Daniels almost certainly needs to drop the kinds of numbers on the Gators and Aggies that force voters to sit up straight during highlights of a game they’re not watching just to keep himself in the conversation. The uncertainty over his status going forward and the standard vagaries of Heisman politics both suggest he’s on his way out. But if he gets the green light to finish what he started, his game and his production might still be too big to ignore.
Florida: Stuck at Square One
Florida’s 39-36 loss to Arkansas in The Swamp was a nightmare scenario for the Gators, on multiple levels. The Razorbacks came in riding a 6-game losing streak, and not the kind where a light was readily visible at the end of the tunnel. Their last time out, the Hogs landed on the wrong end of a 7-3 final score against Mississippi State, in a game that matched the lowest-scoring SEC game since the infamous 3-2 game between Mississippi State and Auburn in 2008; offensive coordinator Dan Enos was handed his walking papers the next day, the first sign that Sam Pittman might be beginning to feel the walls closing in on himself. Instead of making a bee line for the tank, though, Arkansas came out of an open date to set season highs for total offense (481) and points (39) in new low-water mark for Florida under Billy Napier.
Falling to 5-4 against a significant underdog in turmoil was bad enough. Worse, it leaves the Gators in a precarious situation due to their remaining schedule: Their last 3 games, against LSU (in Baton Rouge), Missouri (in Columbia) and Florida State (in Gainesville), are all against ranked opponents who’ll be favored in those meetings, putting Florida’s chance of reaching bowl eligibility at 6-6 in significantly more doubt than it was on Saturday morning. For an outfit that was 5-2 as of mid-October, that would be a bitter pill. And for a team still shaking off the cobwebs of last year’s 6-7 finish in Napier’s first season, the implications of potential going bowl-less in Year 2 are particularly grim.
Through 22 games, the Napier project remains essentially juiceless. A running focus when it comes to Florida’s competitiveness (or lack thereof) against the top half of the SEC is the overall talent level, usually attributed to a dip in recruiting under Napier’s predecessor, Dan Mullen. Against the Georgias and Alabamas of the world, that might carry water. Against everyone else, not so much. Florida’s ranks 15th in 247Sports’ Team Talent Composite, 1 spot below Michigan and 5 ahead of Florida State, and 11th in Blue-Chip Ratio, which according to the premise suggests the Gators’ baseline talent level should be good enough to compete for a national title.
No one in Gainesville necessarily expects that anytime soon from what everyone acknowledges as a ground-up rebuild, but it should serve as a stark reminder of just how far they are from taking so much as their first sustained step forward. Last November Florida suffered a horrendous upset at the hands of Vanderbilt; a year later, there has been no discernible progress.
The Gators’ tangible goals for the rest of the season probably top out at the Liberty Bowl. But the urgency over the next few weeks to avoid a losing record should be dialed all the way up. Napier may be not be in any danger of being shown the door this year, even if it ends on a 5-game losing streak. But if there’s any hope of getting the patient off the table in a make-or-break Year 3, it’s time to start demonstrating some signs of life ASAP.
Superlatives
The week’s best individual performances.
1. Ole Miss WR Tre Harris. Harris was already a known commodity to anyone who has tuned into Ole Miss’ offense this season, but for the uninitiated his performance in the Rebels’ 38-35 win over Texas A&M was a revelation. Not only did he account for 213 of Jaxson Dart‘s 387 passing yards: He did it in high style, with a handful of highlight-reel grabs that included his lone touchdown of the afternoon and the indisputable Catch of the Year of the Week:
Dude's a freak. ?@_treharris13 | #HottyToddy pic.twitter.com/QgMfoEasLB
— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) November 4, 2023
Harris was so fully in the zone against the Aggies he was pulling down jaw-dropping catches that didn’t even count. A former All-Conference USA pick at Louisiana Tech, his return to the lineup after missing all or most of 3 games in September (including the lone loss at Alabama) has been a boon for a unit rebuilt almost entirely from scratch via the portal. Besides emerging as the team’s go-to target, Harris leads all FBS wideouts in yards per route run, per PFF, averaging 4.14 yards every time he embarks on a pattern. Wide receiver may be the most crowded position on the All-SEC ballot, but as of Saturday he’s officially in the running.
2. Alabama QB Jalen Milroe and LSU QB Jayden Daniels. Milroe and Daniels ranked No. 1 and No. 2 nationally in Week 10 in Total EPA while accounting for a combined 756 yards and 7 touchdowns in one of the most entertaining games of the season. Their nights ended on very different notes, but in real time the stage belonged equally to them both.
3. Auburn RB Jarquez Hunter. Hunter was suspended for Auburn’s season-opener, and didn’t do much to distinguish himself over the subsequent 6 weeks. Since then, he’s emerging as one the hottest backs in the country. In Week 8, he set a career-high vs. an FBS opponent with 145 scrimmage yards in a loss to Ole Miss; in Week 9, he set it again, on a 170-yard afternoon against Mississippi State. On Saturday, Hunter put up a new personal best for the 3rd week in a row, racking up 183 yards and 2 touchdowns rushing in a 31-15 win over Vanderbilt. In fact, most of that total came on just 2 plays: A 67-yard touchdown run on his first carry of the game, followed immediately by a 56-yard touchdown run just a few minutes later, on carry No. 3:
Jarquez Hunter has 3 carries in the first quarter…and has 121 yards and ✌️ TDs…
Is that good, @jarquezhunter? pic.twitter.com/rpN9jE0adf
— Auburn Football (@AuburnFootball) November 4, 2023
With that, Hunter is officially on pace for a 1,000-yard season, assuming the Tigers win at least 1 of their last 3 to become bowl-eligible. With Arkansas and New Mexico State on deck ahead of the Iron Bowl, suddenly that seems like a pretty safe assumption.
4. Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson. The last time we saw Jefferson, he was stinking up the joint in a 7-3 loss to Mississippi State that cost his offensive coordinator his job. With a week off to regroup and a new play-caller in his ear, Jefferson looked liked his old, imposing self Saturday for arguably the first time in 2023, turning in his best stat line of the season against Florida while finally flashing the effortless arm talent and brute strength as a runner Arkansas fans have been begging to see.
Can’t get enough of this run! pic.twitter.com/24O1I9p5wl
— Hawg Talk Podcast (@TheHawgTalk) November 5, 2023
Oh, there was was plenty of the usual rust, too, including 5 sacks and an interception. With the game on the line late, though, Jefferson was at his best. On four scoring drives in the 4th quarter and overtime, he was 9-for-13 passing for 81 yards, rumbled for another 91 yards on the ground, and accounted for touchdowns as a runner and passer — the former, a 25-yard gallop to put the Hogs ahead late in regulation; the latter, a short, game-winning dart to seal the win in OT. Now he just needs to do it 3 more times in a row to get them back to a bowl game.
5. Georgia DBs Kamari Lassiter and Julian Humphrey. Georgia’s dominant but headliner-deprived defense continues to earn a token rep(s) in this section until further notice. This week, it’s the secondary duo of Lassiter and Humphrey, both of whom filled unfamiliar roles in the Bulldogs’ win over Missouri while allowing a combined 4 receptions on 12 targets, per PFF. Lassiter, typically an outside corner, saw significantly more time than usual Saturday in the nickel — the better to give UGA a more viable option opposite Mizzou’s electric slot receiver, Luther Burden III, after Burden got behind the coverage for a 39-yard touchdown in the first quarter. On the outside, UGA plugged in Humphrey, a true sophomore whose 47 snaps against the Tigers more than doubled his previous career-high of 19. On their head-to-head snaps against Burden and Theo Wease, Lassiter and Humphrey held their blue-chip counterparts to just 1 catch (a 33-yarder by Wease at Humphrey’s expense) on 7 targets, vs. 3 passes broken up.
Honorable Mention: South Carolina WR Xavier Legette, who had a career-high 217 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 catches in a 38-28 win over Jacksonville State. … Arkansas RB Rocket Sanders, who ran for 103 yards on 18 carries in the Razorbacks’ win over Florida, his first game in nearly a month. … Florida RB Trevor Etienne, who accounted for 123 yards and a touchdown in a losing effort. … Ole Miss RB Quinshon Judkins, who ran for 102 yards and 3 touchdowns in the Rebels’ win over Texas A&M. … Mississippi State LB Jett Johnson, whose 8 total tackles in a 24-3 loss to Kentucky included 3 behind the line of scrimmage. … Florida edge Princely Umanmielen, who had a hand in 3 of Florida’s five sacks against Arkansas. … Georgia RB Daijun Edwards, who accounted for 105 scrimmage yards in the Bulldogs’ win over Missouri. … Georgia Edge Jalon Walker, who had 4 QB pressures and 2 sacks against Mizzou on 20 pass-rushing snaps. … And Missouri RB Cody Schrader, whose 112 rushing yards made him the first opposing player to hit triple digits on the ground against Georgia since Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez Jr. ran for 108 on Oct. 31, 2020.
– – –
The scoring system for players honored in Superlatives awards 8 points for the week’s top player, 6 for 2nd, 5 for 3rd, 4 for 4th, 3 for 5th, and 1 for honorable mention, because how honorable is it really if it doesn’t come with any points? The standings are updated weekly with the top 10 players for the season to date.
Obscure stat of the week
Mississippi State’s only scoring drive in a 24-3 loss to Kentucky was a 20-play, 88-yard epic spanning the first and second quarters that consumed 12 minutes and 29 seconds from the clock. Still, the Bulldogs somehow finished with a slight deficit in time of possession, coming in at 29:22 for the game to Kentucky’s 30:38.
Quotes of the week
• “You gotta give me some type of credit. My chest started to stick out, my stomach started to stick out, it’s hard to pick up your knees when you got all that meat right there.” — Georgia DT Nazir Stackhouse, on his 4th-quarter interception return against Missouri at 6-3, 320 pounds.
• “No chance. I think the only thing he could hit 18 miles an hour on is his bike or a car.” – Kirby Smart, on Stackhouse’s claim that he hit 18 mph during the return.
SEC Power Rankings
Updating the food chain.
1. Georgia (9-0). The “slow start” narrative is gaining more traction by the week. Missouri was the 3rd consecutive opponent to score a touchdown on its opening offensive possession against Georgia, and the 4th this season. Over the previous 2 seasons, the Bulldogs only allowed 1 opening-drive touchdown, at Tennessee in 2021. (Last week: 1⬌)
2. Alabama (8-1). This is not a prediction of how the rest of the season is going to unfold, but the hypothetical Playoff meltdown scenario that fascinates me the most is one that comes down to a debate between 12-1 Alabama and 12-1 Texas for the last spot. Just sit with that one for a minute. (LW: 2⬌)
3. Ole Miss (8-1). Is Lane Kiffin more “likable” now than he used to be? Or is he just winning more games? In the coaching business, I’m not sure there’s ever really been a difference. (LW: 3⬌)
4. Tennessee (7-2). The Vols’ 59-3 win over UConn was an unholy slaughter even more grisly than the final score implied. Tennessee outgained the Huskies by nearly 400 yards of total offense (650 to 256) while also scoring 3 touchdowns on defense — a fumble return late in the first half, followed by back-to-back pick-6 INTs to start the second half. It’s almost impossible to do something that’s never been done before at a school that’s been playing football for 130 years, but as far as anyone can tell, 3 defensive touchdowns in the same game was a first in UT history. (LW: 6⬆)
5. LSU (6-3). Defensive coordinator Matt House’s days are numbered. Personnel-wise, though, who are LSU’s dudes on that side of the ball? Harold Perkins Jr. has had a disappointing sophomore campaign, Mekhi Wingo is likely out for the season, and Maason Smith has barely registered in his return from a torn ACL in 2022. Who else even comes to mind? (LW: 4⬇)
6. Missouri (7-2). Unlike many viewers, I’ve never had a strong opinion of CBS’ long-tenured and fundamentally cromulent color man, Gary Danielson. My theory has always been that anxious fans need an outlet for their emotions — especially when their team is losing — and Danielson just happens to be the most readily available target, cheerfully narrating their favorite team getting its head kicked in by Alabama or Georgia for the umpteenth year in a row.
I don’t have a favorite SEC team, so. I dunno, I tend to like the guy. Danielson is always prepared, usually more engaged with the game going on in front of him than a lot of his peers, never comes across as canned or schticky, and has a natural rapport with his colleagues, which makes for a more fluid back-and-forth than you get with certain booth pairings where the color guy sounds like he’s racing against a stopwatch to get in a generic soundbite between plays.
Most important, he’s been a fixture for so long now that his voice is baked into the idea of a “big-game atmosphere” for an entire generation of fans. He may not be the best in the business; he is a pro, which is easy to take for granted. And as a lot of people apparently discovered to their shock when they tuned in to the B-team calling Georgia-Mizzou on Saturday afternoon, they’re going to miss him when he’s gone. (LW: 5⬇)
7. Kentucky (6-3). Kentucky needed a good turn coming off an 0-3 October, and a 24-3 final in a game in which neither offense cracks 300 total yards and combined punts + penalties (30) outnumbered combined first downs (28) is the ultimate Mark Stoops victory. The Wildcats’ win at Mississippi State was their first in Starkville since 2008. (LW: 7⬌)
8. Texas A&M (5-4). Saturday’s loss at Ole Miss extended A&M’s road losing streak to 8 straight defeats dating back to 2021, 5 of them now having come by by 6 points or less. Only 1 more chance this year to get off the skid before it becomes an inescapable totem of the Aggies’ ongoing mediocrity in 2024: At LSU on Nov. 25. (LW: 9⬆)
9. Florida (5-4). The Gators are not as hopeless as they are boring. And whatever the cause, they should be banned by state law from wearing black uniforms again. (LW: 8⬇)
10. Auburn (5-4). It’s hard to tell if Auburn is really improving the past 2 weeks, or if the schedule just got way easier. Either way, with Arkansas and New Mexico State ahead, the Tigers may well be rolling into the Iron Bowl on a 4-game winning streak before they find out. (LW: 10⬌)
11. Arkansas (3-6). It’s impossible from the outside to gauge how much of Arkansas’ offensive revival at Florida can be chalked up to now-former OC Dan Enos being forced to walk the plank, but there was no mistaking the difference that a quasi-healthy Rocket Sanders makes. Playing in his first game in nearly a month — and looking closer to 100% than he has at any point this year — Sanders gashed the Gators for 103 yards on 5.7 per carry, eclipsing his output for the season to date. The previous high for an Arkansas RB in SEC play this year was a 78-yard outing by Rashod Dubinion against LSU. (LW: 13⬆)
12. South Carolina (3-6). The Gamecocks didn’t exactly look like a team on the verge of turning a corner on Saturday, surviving a 60-minute test from Jacksonville State to win, 38-28, courtesy of a late pick-6 that pushed the final margin to double digits. But coming off 4 straight losses, they’ll take what they can get. They still have to run the table against Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and resurgent (?) Clemson to get to bowl-eligible. (LW: 12⬌)
13. Mississippi State (4-5). The Bulldogs were struggling to keep their heads above water before Will Rogers’ shoulder injury, and without him they’re sinking fast: In 3 games since Rogers was sidelined, MSU has scored a grand total of 23 points. Rogers has reportedly vowed to be back in time for the Egg Bowl, “even if my arm fell off.” Honestly, if his arm did fall off, that still might not represent a significant downgrade from the current situation. (LW: 11⬇)
14. Vanderbilt (2-8). All that’s standing between Vandy and its 3rd winless conference record in the past 4 years are road trips to South Carolina and Tennessee. If there’s a formula for remaining competitive here beyond “lower the admissions standards,” Clark Lea is no closer to solving it as Year 3 draws to a close than his doomed predecessors. (LW: 14⬌)
Moment of Zen of the week
"You'd be playing more here than you are there."
Saban to his former player Aaron Anderson ? pic.twitter.com/elLmKV03Ov
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 5, 2023
• • •