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Dare I say, I have more questions than answers heading into 2024.
It’s a new era of college football. Major conferences are going through significant transformations, the 12-team Playoff is here and the greatest coach in college football history no longer is standing in everyone’s path to a national title.
A new era, indeed.
With the SEC specifically, there’s no shortage of questions to be asked. After all, Texas and Oklahoma are on board now. Divisions aren’t a thing anymore. Wild times are on the horizon.
Continuing our Top 25 week, I broke down the Top 25 burning questions in the SEC heading into 2024:
25. How many SEC teams will be in the first 12-team Playoff?
My guess is 4 — Georgia, Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss. That’ll be the standard line for the SEC with 3 feeling like a disappointment and 5 feeling like a strong season. I’ll be fascinated if the selection committee gives a 9-3 SEC team the benefit of the doubt over a 10-2 team from the Big 12 or ACC (not so much the Big Ten). Whether conference commissioners want to admit it, this topic will be scrutinized more than ever.
24. Can Jeff Lebby’s offense make Mississippi State fun in Year 1?
I hope so because last year’s offense was anything but that. Lebby was part of top-40 scoring offenses at 3 programs in each of the past 5 seasons. I’m skeptical of Mississippi State’s ability to protect Blake Shapen, but against lesser competition, there could be some 2018 Ole Miss vibes to Lebby’s Year 1 in Starkville.
23. How many SEC coaching changes will there be at season’s end?
I’ll set the over/under at 3. My guess is that Billy Napier, Sam Pittman and Clark Lea are all fired, and Mark Stoops steps down at Kentucky. Give me the over. In a 16-team conference wherein that order of finish can now include double digits, teams are about to realize how far they are from reaching Atlanta. What about the 12-team Playoff, you ask? Missing that and being 4-4 going into November will sting even more. Ergo, more firings.
22. Will Rocket Sanders return to his 2022 form?
Remember when Sanders was a preseason All-American at this time last year? I do. I also remember when he was 9th in FBS in scrimmage yards in 2022. But 2023 was a lost season because of injuries and an inept Arkansas offensive line. Now at South Carolina, Sanders is still trying to shake off injuries and run behind an unproven offensive line. But if he can stay healthy, Sanders will have a shot at looking like his 2022 self.
21. What’s in store for Brock Vandagriff and Garrett Nussmeier now that they’re finally starting?
Both Class of 2021 quarterbacks had to wait 3 years to become SEC starters. Nussmeier stayed at LSU while Vandagriff opted to transfer to Kentucky. Both are talented first-time starters who could have some early growing pains, but as 4th-year players, they’ll be held to a higher standard. Will one of them be a breakout star in the SEC? It certainly feels possible, even in a year in which SEC quarterback depth isn’t lacking.
20. What does Hugh Freeze’s offensive takeover yield at Auburn?
Freeze fired Phillip Montgomery after 1 season and took over the play-calling role that he admitted last year was in his rearview mirror. But after seeing how much Auburn struggled offensively, especially in the passing game, Freeze took on the role that made him an agent of chaos in the SEC a decade ago. Can he lead Auburn to an offensive turnaround with Payton Thorne in Year 2 in the system with better surroundings? That’ll determine his Year 2.
19. Does Carson Beck have another gear to reach?
Beck is one of the preseason Heisman Trophy favorites after leading Georgia to a 13-win season, yet there seem to be questions about his ceiling. Is that because he isn’t a dual-threat? Or is it because he’s not some no-doubter top-3 pick like Caleb Williams? Probably a mix of both. But I can’t help but wonder if we’re about to see an even more precise, confident version of Beck that has us rethinking his potential both as a college quarterback and as an NFL prospect.
Related: Looking to place a bet on the 2024 national champion? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
18. Does Nyck Harbor put it all together and become a football alien?
The man was No. 1 on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List … before he ever played a college game for South Carolina. A 6-5, 242-pound receiver who runs a 10.16-second 100-meter dash is indeed a freak. Harbor’s freshman season was a quiet one, but there’s an expectation that the route-running will develop in Year 2 and he’ll at least flash brilliance. Something tells me those moments won’t be very quiet.
17. What’s in store for Auburn WR Cam Coleman and Alabama WR Ryan Williams in Year 1?
The 5-star true freshman receivers will have just a couple of eyeballs on them in the state of Alabama. Coleman and Williams are entering receiver rooms that desperately need a shot of life. They could provide it. Just remember that the only SEC true freshman wide receiver in the past 8 seasons who had 800 receiving yards was 2018 Jaylen Waddle. Anything resembling that from Coleman or Williams would be quite the Year 1 statement.
16. Is this the last hurrah for Mark Stoops at Kentucky?
It’s not just that Stoops seems annoyed with NIL fundraising. That Texas A&M flirtation wasn’t nothing. I tend to think that someone who was that close to leaving isn’t about to spend another decade at UK. The lack of staff moves after a disappointing 2023 season has me wondering if Stoops is at the beginning of the end. He’s entering Year 12 at Kentucky and already is the program’s all-time winningest coach (73 victories and counting). Could it be his last? I wouldn’t rule it out.
15. What will the return of the Texas-Texas A&M rivalry produce?
I can’t wait for it. For all the talk about the rivalries interrupted due to realignment, getting this one back is tremendous for college football. It’s hard to imagine that these fan bases could be any more hostile toward each other, but getting their teams playing tackle football instead of just beefing on the internet is a win.
14. Will Bobby Petrino’s Arkansas return save Sam Pittman’s job?
They’re asking this question daily in Fayetteville, and understandably so. Petrino’s return to Arkansas wouldn’t have happened if not for Pittman sensing the urgency to turn things around. Petrino handpicked QB Taylen Green from Boise State to run the offense, and Pittman has more of a hands-on approach to the offensive line. Will that yield an offense that can fuel a 7-5 season? Or will the most likable coach in the sport (Pittman … not Petrino) not do enough to earn a Year 6?
13. Does Trevor Etienne become the best Georgia back since D’Andre Swift?
I think it’s on the table. Etienne won’t get 300 carries or anything, but he’ll have an opportunity to be better than any UGA back during the 2020s. I don’t mean to discount any of those backs, none of whom recorded 900 rushing yards. I just think the Florida transfer is that dynamic. With a better offensive line that he had the past 2 years — the 2022 Florida offensive line was solid but not as good as UGA’s — Etienne should have plenty of moments that make Gator fans feel like he was the one that got away.
12. Who emerges as the SEC’s leading rusher with so many new faces?
Speaking of Etienne, can he win the rushing title? He’s a popular candidate, as is the aforementioned Sanders and Jarquez Hunter. My pick is a bit off the normal SEC radar. Texas’ CJ Baxter should have the best surroundings with 4 starters returning on that Texas offensive line. But in a year in which the SEC only has 1 of its top 8 leading rushers returning — there was also just 1 running back at SEC Media Days — the SEC rushing title couldn’t be more wide open.
11. Can Mizzou’s new-look defense flirt with mediocrity?
I’m not guaranteeing Mizzou’s defense will fail. I am saying that having 5 players selected in the NFL Draft was more than Georgia, and losing the top 2 defensive assistants to LSU was significant. I saw Mizzou’s defensive floor in 2021 with the group that Steve Wilks led. I’m not saying that this year’s squad reverts to that, but assuming it’ll be on Blake Baker levels doesn’t seem fair. It could be the difference in Mizzou making the 12-team Playoff, even with a favorable schedule.
10. What will be the takeaway from the first division-less SEC in the conference title era?
My initial takeaway is that we don’t have a tiebreaker yet, which seems absurd. Time will tell if that’s announced before the season. All we know is that our Matt Hayes reported that it won’t include the Playoff poll. But I wonder how this will play out for those old East teams knowing that Georgia isn’t the barrier to entry. How many teams will be 6-2 or 7-1 in SEC play with a path to Atlanta going into the regular-season finale? And will we get any rematches in the SEC Championship like we’d rarely get in the divisions era? All are fair questions.
9. What’s in store for Year 1 of the DJ Lagway experience at Florida?
In case you haven’t heard, there are a ton of eyeballs on Lagway. The Gatorade National Player of the Year isn’t stepping into Florida to be the starter, but given the conversation about Billy Napier’s future, one would assume we’re going to see Lagway get meaningful reps as a true freshman. He’s 240 pounds already, so he doesn’t need to put on any weight. He also has an established starter ahead of him in Graham Mertz, who isn’t in jeopardy of losing his job. But if Mertz has consecutive rough showings … look out. It could be Lagway time.
8. Does Georgia’s continued off-field issues catch up to Kirby Smart in 2024?
It hasn’t happened yet. UGA is going for its 4th consecutive 12-0 regular season. If that happens, nobody will point to the Dawgs’ repeated off-field issues. But even a 10-2 regular season will have some wondering if the discipline issues are having an Urban Meyer-Florida impact. It’d be one thing if we were seeing true freshmen have issues. But Smael Mondon, Rara Thomas and Etienne are all expected starters who have been arrested this offseason. (Georgia suspended Thomas.) If UGA has any sort of issues, this schedule, which includes potentially 3 true road games against preseason top-7 teams, will expose it.
7. How much Arch Manning will we see at Texas?
Quinn Ewers missed multiple games due to injury in his first 2 seasons as a starter, so it’s possible that Manning’s first college start awaits in 2024. Let’s also remember that Texas is a preseason national title contender with an extremely favorable schedule. That should yield some blowouts and legitimate reps for Manning. My guess? Manning will play in close to half of Texas’ games. If Steve Sarkisian wants to win Ewers a Heisman Trophy, maybe that’s a different story. But if he wants to try to rest Texas’ starters to brace for a deep Playoff run, we should see more of Manning. I’m betting on the latter.
6. Will Vols QB Nico Iamaleava live up to the hype?
He’s the most hyped Tennessee quarterback since Peyton Manning. My question isn’t whether Iamaleava can be Manning-levels of good. That’s not fair. Can he be 2022 Hendon Hooker-levels of good? That’s more realistic in this Josh Heupel offense. My guess is that Iamaleava won’t quite be Hooker as a runner, but I think he’ll fit more balls into tighter windows. That could result in more turnovers, but the upside will be worth it. I’m all in on Iamaleava looking the part as the Vols’ QB1.
Related: Looking to place a bet on the Heisman Trophy winner in 2024? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
5. Will LSU’s defense show signs of life? And can we get the best version of Harold Perkins?
It can’t be any worse than last year … right? Brian Kelly gutted the defensive staff and brought in Baker to rebuild the once-proud unit. That was met with confusion when he announced that Perkins would be lining up at inside linebacker, just as he did during his well-documented 2023 transition with Matt House. Baker unlocking the best version of Perkins feels like a massive piece to rebuilding LSU, but he also needs help in that secondary, which was a disaster last year. And if Bo Davis can coach up a defensive line that’s loaded with questions, that’d be a major plus. Kelly’s Year 3 path to the 12-team Playoff hinges on Baker’s Year 1 defense.
4. Can Billy Napier navigate a gauntlet schedule and get a Year 4?
Yeah, we have to talk about the Florida schedule again. It features 11 Power conference opponents and the last 5 teams all finished in the top 12 of the AP Poll. If Florida had gone 9-3 in 2023, we’d have a different approach. But a 5-7 team with a coach in need of an immediate turnaround has the college football world wondering if 2024 will be Napier’s last in Gainesville. Napier is banking on an overhauled nutrition program, a tweaked special teams philosophy and some defensive staff reinforcements being the difference. Whatever the case, a 5-game losing streak to close the season can’t be the trend that repeats.
3. Is Lane Kiffin’s time now at Ole Miss?
Kiffin is going to get a preseason top-10 ranking for the first time since his 2012 season at USC when he started No. 1 in America. Kiffin has never started and finished in the top 15 of the AP Poll. With this Ole Miss roster, which is loaded with experience from an 11-win team, there’s a hope that Kiffin’s squad has the favorable path to the 12-team Playoff. The schedule is about as favorable as it gets, and the portal additions of Walter Nolen and Princely Umanmielen on the defensive line could be what bridges the gap with elite foes. Maybe a national title berth is unrealistic, but if Kiffin misses out on the Playoff, it’ll sting more than anything has since he was left on the tarmac at USC.
2. How SEC-ready are Oklahoma and Texas?
I say that tongue-in-cheek because I know Oklahoma and Texas fans hate that question. That’s why I said “how” SEC ready are Oklahoma and Texas? I have the Sooners going 9-3 and Texas starting 12-0, so I believe that they’ll be more SEC-ready than what many are expecting. Do I have questions about Oklahoma’s offensive line and Texas’ defensive line? Sure, but you don’t have to look like a carbon copy of Georgia in the trenches to navigate the SEC. A Year 3 Brent Venables defense and a Year 4 Steve Sarkisian offense will take shape in 2024.
1. What does a post-Nick Saban Alabama look like?
Yep, that’s an even bigger burning question than Texas and Oklahoma fitting in the SEC. Why? Well, since Saban’s arrival at Alabama in 2007, the Tide either played in the national championship game or a team that beat them played in a national championship game all but once (2022). The path to a title always ran through the Tide, who also won 3 of the 4 SEC titles during the 2020s. With new coach Kalen DeBoer, will that be the case? Will Jalen Milroe transition well to his offense? And what about a defense that no longer has Saban available to troubleshoot?
Those are all legitimate questions that could define the first year of this new era of college football.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
