O'Gara: The SEC still hasn't announced a tiebreaker format for its first division-less season, so it can take mine
One would think that nearly 3 years after the SEC announced Texas and Oklahoma were on the way, we’d have a tiebreaker system locked in for the 2024 football season.
Nope. At least not publicly.
As it stands, the SEC is still in search of what its tiebreaker system will look like. The inaugural season of Oklahoma and Texas in the 16-team SEC will be the first one without divisions. At least it’s the first season without divisions since the SEC Championship became a thing in 1992.
No longer can we default to head-to-head results.
We need new tiebreakers because you know that without fail, we’re about to have a pair of teams that are 6-2 in SEC play that are vying for that last spot in the SEC Championship, and there won’t be a head-to-head matchup to settle it. That’s what we need to figure out. How do we settle ties among teams with the same conference record?
You’ve come to the right place. I don’t care what other conferences are doing. The SEC goes to the beat of its own drum anyway, so why would that change with determining a conference champ? Here’s how I would break a tie in this new 16-team SEC, wherein the top 2 conference records will earn a conference championship berth:
Tiebreaker No. 1 — Head-to-head advantage
Duh. It had to be said.
If Georgia and Texas are sitting at 7-1 in the conference standings, but the Longhorns won their matchup in Austin, they should get to go to Atlanta instead of Georgia. Period.
You can apply this to a 3-team tiebreaker, too. A division-less 2022 would’ve presented 6-2 LSU, 6-2 Alabama and 6-2 Tennessee fighting for that last spot. Tennessee had the head-to-head against both Alabama and LSU, which would’ve been enough to send the Vols to Atlanta for a rematch against unbeaten Georgia.
For a 3-way tie to be settled in a head-to-head tiebreaker, 1 of the teams must have swept the other 2 squads. If it’s just a victory against 1 of the 2 other teams in the 3-way tie, we’d move on to the next tiebreaker with all teams involved. That’s a difference from the previous system, which stated that the best record vs. all teams involved in the 3-way tie would advance. In this new world of the SEC, if you haven’t taken care of all teams within that 3-way tie, you move on to the next tiebreaker, which is …
Tiebreaker No. 2 — Total victories vs. SEC teams that finish with a winning conference record
Wait, what? That’s new. You bet it is.
Beating teams with a winning conference record should mean something. It factors in the end-of-season strength of the SEC schedule in a way that isn’t just simply scoring margin against common conference opponents, which can easily be skewed depending on the timing of the matchup. I also don’t like the idea of not knowing whether a 4th quarter touchdown in a blowout will determine a conference title berth (I’ve got more thoughts on that in a bit).
But total victories vs. SEC teams that finish with a winning record is essentially strength of schedule within conference play. It rewards the team that had a tougher path.
That would’ve been fascinating in a division-less 2017. That year, Auburn, Georgia and Alabama were all 7-1 in conference play. Auburn would’ve secured the first spot in the SEC Championship by winning the 3-way tiebreaker in the head-to-head after sweeping Alabama and Georgia in the regular season. So if that last spot in Atlanta came down to Alabama and Georgia, which didn’t face each other in the regular season, we could’ve looked at total victories vs. SEC teams that finished with a winning conference record.
Georgia and Alabama would’ve only had 1 such win apiece, so we would’ve moved on to a 3rd tiebreaker.
Tiebreaker No. 3 — Total conference wins among teams beaten in SEC play
That’s wordy. Don’t overthink it. It’s imperialism. If you beat an SEC team, you add their conference wins to your total. It’s as simple as that. Rewarding strength of conference schedule is still the focus here.
In 2017, Georgia’s SEC opponents it beat had 21 conference wins:
- South Carolina (5)
- Mississippi State (4)
- Kentucky (4)
- Mizzou (4)
- Florida (3)
- Vanderbilt (1)
- Tennessee (0)
Alabama’s SEC opponents it beat had 19 total conference wins:
- LSU (6)
- Mississippi State (4)
- Texas A&M (4)
- Ole Miss (3)
- Arkansas (1)
- Vanderbilt (1)
- Tennessee (0)
In that scenario, Georgia would’ve won the Tiebreaker No. 3 and advanced to face Auburn in the 2017 SEC Championship.
But if this were a division-less 2023, the conference opponents beaten by both Alabama and Georgia would’ve had each had 28 SEC wins, so we’d move on to the NEXT tiebreaker …
Tiebreaker No. 4 — Total scoring margin vs. conference opponents
We finally got here. It took a bit, but sure, let’s have scoring margin vs. common opponents come into play as a last resort.
Let me be clear. I hate, hate, hate this as an early tiebreaker, which is why it’s only No. 4. Why? It pretends that all points are created equal when they aren’t. Beating Vandy by 28 instead of 45 shouldn’t determine whether a team advances to a conference title game, but in this scenario, it could. The reason I don’t have scoring margin vs. conference opponents higher is because I don’t want to incentivize championship contenders to leave in their starters late when they shouldn’t have to, especially in this expanded Playoff where teams could play as many as 17 games in a season.
But by putting it as the No. 4 tiebreaker, it should be a catch-all. If we do have teams with the same exact total scoring margin vs. conference opponents, then I suppose this next scenario is the true last resort …
Tiebreaker No. 5 — Post-regular season College Football Playoff ranking
I know what you’re thinking. Connor, why didn’t you have this higher? Doesn’t defaulting to a Playoff ranking eliminate the need for any tiebreakers?
Yes, but remember that those rankings don’t come out until Tuesday. That means you would have 3 days of teams sitting idle waiting to hear their conference championship fate. That’s not fair to those teams, nor is it fair to the team that already punched its ticket to Atlanta. It’s awfully difficult to game plan with half as much time to prepare.
I can’t imagine the SEC would want that from a ticketing standpoint, either. That creates unnecessary chaos to put on an event.
But perhaps the underlying issue with this tiebreaker — if it came to that — would be that it factors nonconference strength of schedule into determining a conference title berth. We know that’s how Playoff rankings work, as they should. It would just feel weird to have the perceived strength of a matchup against an ACC or Big Ten team play a significant role in determining a conference championship participant.
Then again, if we’ve reached a 5th tiebreaker, all hell has already broken loose.
Feel free to copy and paste this, SEC rule-makers.
All I ask for in return is that whenever you show this graphic in the middle of some late-season game, say “The SEC tiebreakers, presented to you by Saturday Down South.”
Simple enough? Good.
There is a distinct possibility that two SEC teams could meet three times. Reg season, SECCG, and then in the 12 team playoff.
I would go one step further and say that 2 SEC teams will play each other 3 times in a season most years. Loser of the SEC champ game will almost always make a 12 or 14 team playoff. And with the SEC’s record in the BCS and the 4 team championship its more likely than not the 2 teams from the SEC championship will meet again in the 12-14 team playoff.
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3 times in MOST years? Ridiculous. Might happen once in a blue moon. Two times, sure. But what are the odds of playing a team in reg season. SEC champ game and again in the playoffs? Minuscule
Actually, 3rd place finish might be the better option.
Tie Breaker: Ask The Great Mouse which team they think will get better TV ratings and put that team in the game.
That tie breaker has been there since at least the beginning of the 4-team playoffs. It just took the standings at the end of last year to bring it out in the light.
Tie Breaker: Dance off.
lol
If you can’t figure out the tiebreakers then let me help you out. First tie breaker is whatever kirby smart wants it to be. The SEC leadership has their heads so far up in him it’s unreal. Second tiebreaker is whatever texas wants after kirby. Same issue with the heads.
Some golden child is going to become second, third, or fourth place bout every year and their fans will be humorously whiney
But there is no true conference champion of any league that fails to play a. complete round robin anyway!
That is true and has the potential to create a real mess, at least equal in controversy to the clown school being left out of last year’s dance.
In a conference with 16 teams, you have to play 15 conference games to get in a full round-robin. With only 8 conference games on the schedule this year, there’s a real opportunity for 3 teams to finish undefeated yet not have played each other.
Picture the end of this season with Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss all finishing undefeated. They don’t play each other and would obviously be undefeated vs. common opponents. So, it’ll be on to strength of schedule… or the dreaded “eye test.”
How much does anyone want to bet me that Ole Miss gets aced out? As Truth mentioned above, The Mouse will be the Breaker… again!
I have to disagree, Connor. 2 and 3 both depend on the luck of the scheduling draw. Sure, you have to beat the teams, but you cannot control who the Sec puts on your schedule and then who THEY play. 4 revolves around margin of victory. That is and always will be a terrible criterion. The 1992 Alabama team that beat Miami to win the title beat quite a few teams by small margins, but in the end could not be beaten. That is only one example. It also incentivizes late TDS when up by seventy and leaving starting QBs and others in the game late at risk of injury.
Record vs common opponents could be a good one, but one team may be facing a fierce rival on the road as opposed to another which played them at home.
SOS should mean something. Actually, it should be quite high on the list.
Agree, but not in the games over which you have no control…
They should matter, but your schedule draw should not dictate the champion any more than possible. I understand that, to some degree, it always has and always will, but it should be minimized.
If teams have the same record and one has played a more difficult schedule, that matters. Greatly.
SOS is always flawed. People seem to take that as the gospel but it’s not. It’s based on ratings and we all know ratings are flawed. Garbage in garbage out. The ‘strength of schedule’ is just as much a matter of opinion as anything else.
There’s really no good way to do this, every schedule being unequal. May as well flip a coin. For years, I’ve been saying that each division title should be based only on division games. But now they’re doing away with divisions. Why?
bayou tiger-“There’s really no good way to do this, every schedule being unequal. May as well flip a coin. For years, I’ve been saying that each division title should be based only on division games. But now they’re doing away with divisions. Why?”
Maybe that one season Kelly got there, and he was not the second-best team in the SEC. Ranking means more and should be the focus from now on.
Maybe that one season Kelly got there, and he was not the second-best team in the SEC. Ranking means more and should be the focus from now on.
Made a mistake, * and his team was not the second-best team in the SEC.
I would go with the higher ranked team and that is either Tennessee or Alabama when there is a three-way tie breaker. This is much better than having a LSU team that wasn’t the second-best team in the SEC. Yes, Alabama lost to LSU, but Tennessee beat LSU. Throw out the division completely and go with pods but that doesn’t mean you can’t have two teams from the same pod go to the SEC championship based on top ranking and second-best record in the conference. Tennessee and Alabama would have been ahead of LSU because of their overall record and being ranked higher. Then I would go with Tennessee since Tennessee did beat Alabama.
Only problem I have with your model is it doesn’t account for injuries and trajectory of teams at the end of the season.
I would rather have a team that may have stumbled early maybe a close loss on the road in week three against a good team (maybe a game that could have gone either way against another contender at full strength) than say a team that was good early, lost their starting QB in week 11 and lost looking bad in the process.
Easy solution is the 2 highest ranked teams at the end of the season.
As he mentioned, that is not feasible. Rankings come out 3 days prior to game time.
Well, week 11 rankings will be in and there’s always the dreaded “eye test.” Go ask FSU fans how that worked out for them last year.
Take a look at my scenario above for a really delicious mess. Looking forward to it already.
Solution: add a bye week after the season between final week of the regular season and the SEC championship game. The NFL does it, allows more hype, a week to get healthy and narrows the time lag between playoff games (less rust).
T.V. Side should like it. Coaches and schools should like it. Problem solved.
Won’t work. Need a week off before Playoffs.
Yes it could work look at a calendar
SECCG is Dec 7th. Playoffs start Dec 21st. If you move the SECCG to the 14th, you would not have an off week.
All SEC teams can play on Week 0
Sure, but that won’t change the release of the rankings. They will still come out three days before the SECCG.
Additionally, all the out of conference teams would have to agree to change their schedules. GT isn’t going to accommodate UGA. Clemson or FSU wouldn’t appease USCjr or UF either.
Just for fun, this post will really trigger a lot of you. Just make it the “Annual GA-AL game at Mercedes Benz” and don’t play each other in the regular season. Of course, that means that DeBoer must be very successful at AL to hold his spot. And Johnny-come-lately Texas doesn’t get a vote.
The tie breaker will be whatever gets bammer in.
I’ll leave it up to the SEC office to decide and just watch the games with my grandson. For him, I hope Hugh Freeze can at least get Auburn into a winning situation and create an upset or two this season. And for the players, no serious injuries.
This will have to be sorted out by the time SEC media days rolls around, and for those who will inevitably whine and moan about whatever form it takes, I wouldn’t worry too much.
By the time it happens we’ll likely already be discussing the final moves in the super conference expansion and what teams will be added, to the final look of the SEC/B10 and who the 18, 20 or 24 teams will be.
At that point it all starts over.
“mizzoufan2011 1 DAY AGO
All SEC teams can play on Week 0”
yea it’s time to start thinking about week -1,, the season is just going to have to start sooner, one small bonus to all this bs is getting football sooner than we get now.