Paul Finebaum has a clear pick for Monday’s College Football Playoff National Championship in Houston.

Michigan and Washington will face off for the title after both pulled off dramatic wins in the semifinals. The Wolverines rallied to get past Alabama in overtime while the Huskies held on for a thrilling win against Texas.

For Monday’s national title, Jim Harbaugh’s program enters as a 4-point favorite per ESPN Bet, and Finebaum believes there’s little chance Washington can pull off an upset. He made an early pick for the game on ESPN’s “First Take” Tuesday morning.

“I do not (think Washington can pull an upset), and I’ll add that I respect what they’ve done,” said Finebaum. “Another team that has been on a long journey — I think it’s 8 or 9 times they’ve been to the abyss — and somehow they keep winning games, and that matters a great deal. But I don’t really like the matchup.”

Finebaum pointed to Michigan’s dominance of the Crimson Tide during the Rose Bowl as evidence for his pick. However, he did point to Washington’s offensive line against the defensive front of the Wolverines as “a fascinating matchup” to consider.

“After being at field level at the Rose Bowl yesterday and seeing how dominating Michigan can be, I think that causes problems with one caveat though: Washington has the best offensive line in the country, that’s a fascinating matchup,” Finebaum explained. “I just saw what (Michigan) did to the best coach of all time. And Kalen DeBoer’s a really good coach, very few people know his name and his background, but he’s won a zillion titles at a different level. And this is a good program, but I think Michigan is a team of destiny right now.”

Will Washington be able to keep Michael Penix Jr. upright for another big-time performance, or will Michigan’s defense smother the Huskies in one final dominant outing?