SEC QB Power Rankings, Week 4: Kyle Trask's time at Florida has come. How long will it last?
Quarterbacks: There are a lot of them! Each week throughout the season, QB Curve will help you keep the game’s most important position in perspective by ranking the SEC starters 1-14 according to highly scientific processes and/or pure gut-level instinct. Previously: Week 1 … Week 2 … Week 3
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
Last week: 1
Bama only punted once in its 47-23 win at South Carolina, the result of 2 Carolina sacks in quick succession on the Tide’s second offensive series. At first glance, it’s possible to hang both takedowns on junior center Chris Owens, who was beaten on both occasions by powerful Gamecocks DT Javon Kinlaw. But neither play falls only on Owens.
The first sack is straightforward: Kinlaw (No. 3 below) bowled over Owens (79), bullying him to the ground en route to a free shot at Tagovailoa. The complicating factor is LG Evan Neal, whose right foot stepped on Owens’ left, causing him to lose his balance and then the rep in decisive fashion.
https://twitter.com/colecubelic/status/1172964166094807046?s=20
Sack No. 2 falls on Owens and RB Najee Harris (22), who recognized an impending A-gap blitz by Carolina’s R.J. Roderick (10) on 3rd-and-long but whiffed on the block; the pressure from Roderick subsequently forced Tua to step up and into Kinlaw as he blew past Owens again to help Roderick finish the job.
Javon Kinlaw, whew. Impressive sack on Tua. pic.twitter.com/bGVWmkjmRm
— Ian Wharton (@NFLFilmStudy) September 14, 2019
These are the kinds of things you dwell on when the only real concern about your quarterback is ensuring he makes it to December as close to 100 percent as possible. The o-line kept Tua clean the rest of the day, allowing him to do standard Tua things like set career highs for completions (28), yards (444), and touchdowns (5) while barely breaking a sweat.
2. Joe Burrow, LSU
Last week: 2
Burrow spent his Saturday night bombing poor Northwestern State for 373 yards and 2 TDs on 21-of-24 passing, just the second time since 2000 an LSU quarterback has topped 350 yards with an efficiency rating of 200 or higher in the same game. The first time: Burrow’s breakthrough performance against Texas in Week 2.
3. Jake Fromm, Georgia
Last week: 3
I think Fromm’s campaign to date can best be summed up by the fact that I’m compelled for the second week in a row to devote his section to the precocious stylings of 5-star WR George Pickens.
Crazy catch by tFR WR George Pickens #Devy #DevyWatch pic.twitter.com/s2mvxgjjA7
— Greg Brandt (@devywarehouse) September 14, 2019
Pickens and fellow freshman Dominick Blaylock combined for 196 yards on 9 receptions against Arkansas State, moving one step closer to resolving the shrugging emojis on UGA’s wide receiver depth chart for the foreseeable future. Notre Dame is the first test of where they really stand, among a lot of other things. Fromm’s status as one of the nation’s most efficient passers is not one of them.
4. Kelly Bryant, Missouri
Last week: 5
Don’t expect to hear much about it, but the next few weeks present a big opportunity for Bryant and Mizzou: The Tigers will likely be favored in their next 5 games ahead of their November dates with Florida and Georgia, against a succession of below-average defenses. The Tigers are still waiting on the NCAA to rule on their appeal to lift the postseason ban hanging over the season. If the NCAA grants the appeal — not out of the question, given that Mississippi State just avoided a ban for essentially the same infractions, although, you know, it’s the NCAA — don’t be surprised if Missouri suddenly shows up out of nowhere as a plausible challenger to Georgia in the East.
5. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
Last week: 4
Mond has been a significantly more productive passer in Kyle Field than on the road, and not only because that’s where he gets to shred on the likes of Texas State and Lamar: In 18 career games vs. Power 5 opponents, Mond’s efficiency rating at home is more than 20 points higher than in road/neutral dates. Saturday’s visit from Auburn is the first in a 3-game homestand that will put that trend to the test.
6. Bo Nix, Auburn
Last week: 8
Nix did his part in Auburn’s blockbuster rushing night against Kent State, ripping off back-to-back gains of 17 and 18 yards on the read option to set up the Tigers’ first touchdown. That might not look like much — especially in the box score, where his rushing total was deflated by a pair of sacks later on — but introducing the threat of the quarterback as a runner is a key part of what makes Gus Malzahn’s offense go at it best. Auburn hasn’t had a legitimate dual-threat behind center since Nick Marshall in 2014.
7. Ryan Hilinski, South Carolina
Last week: 9
Hilinski’s SEC debut against Alabama ran the gamut of the True Freshman Experience, from ill-advised throws that somehow worked out beautifully …
Double coverage? Doesn't matter.
Ryan Hilinski with a DIME to Shi Smith for the touchdown. pic.twitter.com/xvko3Nx0vp
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) September 14, 2019
… to ill-advised throws that ended in disaster …
An interception for Xavier McKinney to cap off his great day against South Carolina. Easy read and great job high pointing the ball. pic.twitter.com/8FKCJGZBAM
— Rob Paul (@RobPaulNFL) September 14, 2019
… and pretty much everything in between throughout 60-plus dropbacks. The high volume puts his 324-yard performance in perspective — that comes out to just 5.7 yards per attempt and 9.0 per completion — but it also reflects the level of trust Hilinski has earned from his coaches. His name’s going to be all over the school record books before it’s said and done.
8. Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee
Last week: 10
Guarantano connected on 7-of-8 attempts against Chattanooga for 142 yards and 3 TDs before calling it a day in the 2nd quarter. Given his plummeting approval ratings in the wake of Tennessee’s 0-2 start, that feels a lot more reassuring than it probably should. After last year’s debacle in Neyland, a sustained, 4-quarter upset bid Saturday at Florida would mean a lot more.
9. Matt Corral, Ole Miss
Last week: 11
Corral has yet to put up the kind of stat lines that Ole Miss fans are accustomed to against the dregs of the schedule, but he has been significantly steadier over the past 2 weeks over his disappointing debut against Memphis. The next 2 weeks, against Cal (which boasts a legitimate top 20 defense) and Alabama (which is Alabama) will be a formative experience.
10. Nick Starkel, Arkansas
Last week: n/a
– – –
As far as his team is concerned, Starkel’s 305-yard, 3-TD, 0-INT performance against Colorado State might have been the most revelatory performance of the weekend. Early in the 4th quarter, the Razorbacks found themselves deadlocked at 34 against the same team that handed them their most embarrassing defeat in 2018; from there, Starkel led back-to-back touchdown drives on which he was 5-of-6 for 120 yards on the way to a 55-34 win. Credit where it’s due to TE Cheyenne O’Grady for accounting for a big chunk of that number on sheer beastlihood …
Woooooooooooow pic.twitter.com/mPOPZ3nimQ
— Arkansas Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) September 14, 2019
… but given the shipwreck that was Arkansas’ offense in the first 2 games, the most important takeaway from Starkel’s first start in Fayetteville is that there are going to be a lot more to come.
11. Kyle Trask, Florida
Last week: n/a
Trask, a redshirt junior, will get the nod this weekend against Tennessee, the first game he’s entered as the starter since his freshman year. Of high school. As in 7 years ago. As in 2012. As in like the first Obama administration.
That’s a long wait! At Texas’ Manvel High, Trask was stuck in the same graduating class as the prolific D’Eriq King, who held down the starting job all 4 years before moving on to mid-major stardom at Houston. Trask was largely ignored by the recruiting sites, for obvious reasons. But Trask’s 6-5 frame was intriguing enough to catch the eye of Florida coaches scouting Manvel practices, and eventually to earn a scholarship offer from Jim McElwain despite a minimal track record in actual games. In Gainesville, he’s bided his time throughout a redshirt and 2 season-ending foot injuries in 2017 and 2018.
His turn off the bench at Kentucky in place of the injured Feleipe Franks (No. 6 in last week’s rankings) went about as well as it realistically could have gone: Facing a 21-10 deficit in the 4th quarter, Trask provided an immediate spark, leading a pair of touchdown drives covering 62 and 66 yards, respectively, and ran in the go-ahead score himself with a little over 4 minutes to play. Roughly two-thirds of the output on the decisive drives came courtesy of his right arm.
Per Dan Mullen, the game plan against the Vols will also involve redshirt freshman Emory Jones, a much more touted athlete than Trask, although to what extent or in what role remains to be seen. Jones arrived last year after flipping on a commitment to Ohio State with hopes of pushing Franks as the starter, and offers enormous potential with the ball in his hands; Trask has very little margin for error before sentiment in The Swamp begins to shift in favor of the heir apparent. Just holding him off would be a promising start.
12. Sawyer Smith, Kentucky
Last week: 14
Smith got a lot right in his first start as a Wildcat, connecting on 23-of-35 attempts for 267 yards and 2 TDs in a near-upset of Florida, except in the handful of moments that it all went wrong: He was responsible for 3 turnovers (not including a last-gasp Hail Mary that was picked off on the final play), all 3 of which led directly to points for the Gators. A fumble in the first half set up a short field for UF’s first touchdown; an egregious interception to open the second half ended a serious UK scoring threat and set up a short field goal for Florida.
Smith did respond to that INT by leading a 75-yard touchdown drive on the next series, and also drove Kentucky within range of a go-ahead field goal in the final minute. (It missed.) There’s little doubt he’s the guy going forward in the absence of Terry Wilson, but the Wildcats aren’t built to win key SEC games while giving up 17 points off turnovers.
13. Tommy Stevens or Garrett Shrader, Mississippi State
Last week: 7
Stevens is “day-to-day” with a shoulder injury that clearly affected his accuracy in last week’s 31-24 loss to Kansas State, ultimately forcing him to sideline in favor of the true freshman. Virality ensued.
Just because pic.twitter.com/T4eEd3Z8UK
— _33 (@33KSU) September 15, 2019
When not being propelled to dangerous heights, Shrader also struggled with accuracy, hitting just 4-of-12 attempts. On the other hand, he was a more consistent asset than Stevens as a runner — a key component of Joe Moorhead’s scheme — accounting for 82 yards and a touchdown with his legs. If the question of who gets the call against Kentucky hinges on Stevens’ health, don’t bother reading the tea leaves. Last week, Stevens told reporters “I feel good,” only to wind up being benched. This week? He’s feeling “way better… than it was at this point last week.”
14. Riley Neal, Vanderbilt
Last week: 12
Neal was out of sight, out of mind Saturday as Vandy took the weekend off. This week: LSU, which might leave him longing for the bye.
Power rankings are bunkum. Game results are truth.
And…guess what. It’s a TEAM game. TEAM game. TEAM.
And your TEAM gets WAY better when your quarterback is GOOD, as evidenced by the POWER rankings.
Yes and no. The evidence is not in the power rankings, it’s in the game results.
For now, just whip up on the Domers — OK?
People, like teams, get ranked. Not sure what your problem is with that. The nfl is certainly ranking all of these QB’s, along with players from every other position. There is no doubt that QB is the most important position on the field. Just deal with it.
There is no doubt that QB’s do not win or lose by themselves. It’s always a team effort. You deal with that, unless it’s too abstruse for you.
Some QB’s are still better than others. You should learn to deal with that.
I mean, sometimes QBs play great in a loss and like garbage in a win. QBs contribute to wins and losses, without question, but wins and losses are not a quarterback stat. If we should be judging QB quality by wins and losses, the NFL would be positively flooded with Les Miles era LSU QBs. Jordan Jefferson would be leading LA Rams instead of Jared Goff. But that’s not how it works.
Can you name a playoff team with a mediocre QB?
Jake Coker wasn’t necessarily a legend, but still.
Names like Deshaun Watson, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, Tua Tagovailoa, Jake Fromm, Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence, and Kyler Murray all headline playoff and NC competing teams. And nearly all of those either are or certainly will be first-round draft picks and top performers in QB stats across the board in their respective years.
You’ll notice that these power rankings more or less correlate to wins/losses.
The one I could think of would be Connor Cook. I think he was the starter for MSU when they made it? He did make it into the NFL but never did anything and I never thought he was that good.
Game results don’t always reveal truths. A QB, and a TEAM, can look great playing, oh, Idk, Houston, South Dakota, and UCLA, but that doesn’t mean, just based on game results, that the QB is the best.
Also, this site has always done Power Rankings. It’s what they do. Why complain about something that’s been done for years when you could just disappear and find a different site on which to assert your superiority?
Yup, I don’t mind the presence of the rankings, or the order. It seems very fair. Guys like Tua, Fromm, and Burrow have very good teams around them, but they’re also playing very well.
It’s not impossible to evaluate quarterbacks at least somewhat independent of the team. You have to take it into account-if they have a great or terrible offensive line or receivers, it’s obviously going to affect the stat-line-but you can still look at their decision making and how they do when they have an opportunity to make a big play.
Honestly I think 4th is just right for KB. He’s not in the same tier as the top 3-it’s not impossible he could get into the conversation, but he needs some big wins first. But he’s definitely in the tier of good QBs who can win you a lot of games if the team is good. I’d consider that tier to be Kelly Bryant and Kellen Mond. And probably Bo Nix, although it is very early in his career and I’m hesitant to evaluate him yet. But those are guys who can help you win, and win big if you have the right pieces but may not necessarily be able to put the team on their back.
I thought Guarantano was way too high, and then read the list of guys below him…Sheesh. Crazy that the East has already lost 3 starting QBs for the year, although I think SCar and Florida got an upgrade.
Trask will work his way up the list, I think.
There seems to be some implication here that putting Tua behind center at Arkansas would bring the Razorbacks an SEC championship.
(Uh-huh.)
There is no such implication. He would surely make them better though.
Good point. I guess you could look at it like if you put a bottom tier QB like Kyle Trask on Bama or Mizzou, would they (Bama or Mizzou) be better or worse?
I mean, it wouldn’t, but I bet they’d win 3-4 more games.
Arkansas already has the best QB in the SEC.
Did I miss a midseason transfer of Tua?
Interestingly, I thought that all the backups that played significant snaps on Saturday (Trask, Smith, and Shrader) all looked pretty good. Not amazing, but good for guys that a week ago you wouldn’t have expected to take meaningful snaps in 2019. I don’t think any of those teams will be totally sunk by their QB injuries.
With that said, while I loved the hustle, that Shrader kid absolutely must stop attempting flight in pursuit of first downs. I kid, but seriously, it’s very, very lucky we’re talking about that as a humorous moment and not about a serious injury. I loved what he was trying to do, but for the love of god, never again, man.
Got to respect the heck out of the guy for laying it all out there, though. I’m sure he gained the respect of all his teammates for it, too.
Sure. He got away with it the once, good for him, maybe put that one on the shelf, though.
How on Earth is Guarantano 8?
Pretty sure he’s actually 21.
Does anyone really believe that the 3 QBs above Trask could’ve done what he did against UK? Meaning none of them having started a game or played significant minutes since their freshman year of high school and be forced into the lineup being down 21-10 in the 4th quarter on the road in an SEC game with a hostile environment, and proceed to lead their team to victory? I highly doubt it.
Though what Trask did was impressive UK wasn’t bringing a lot of pressure had two DBs out on top of a young dB group and they played soft coverage. Not saying all the QBs above Trask could have done as well but I’m sure if Trask continues to play well, throw receivers open and in stride, make quick decisions ect. He will move up very quickly on this list.
UK had those issues in the secondary even when Franks was playing. I saw UK still trying to bring pressure, but Trask was being quicker with his decision making and was exposing the weak secondary with his accuracy. So if Trask plays well this week, will it only be because UT sucks? I’m just wondering when some Gator fans will actually give credit to their own players instead of always making excuses for the opposing team’s weaknesses.
Well can I at least see him play a full game before I just make a decision one way or another
Did you watch the 2018 national championship game?
I retract that comment. Thought they ranked him #4. Let him play a few more games and we’ll see. Not sure why Mullen started Franks over him but may be a Fitzpatrick kind of QB. Has great moments and really bad ones.
It’s a very good possibility. There has to be some reason for it. I’m hoping its a case of him not being a great practice player and then he winds up shining in games.
“Trask has very little margin for error before sentiment in The Swamp begins to shift in favor of the heir apparent. Just holding him off would be a promising start.”
That is just not true at all. A lot of fans have been calling for Trask to start since 2017. Mullen has it right when he says he will play both guys. The fans are more than OK with Trask as the starter.
I agree in the limited time Trask played meaningful games snaps he has looked decisive, accurate, throwing guys open ect. It appears he does some things better than Franks. I think as long as he makes the right per snap reads and cuts down on any bone headed plays he may be a better fit for this offense due to having really good receivers and a pretty bad run game. I personally have always wanted Trask to play because of his humble attitude and it would make a heck of a story to go from Highschool backup to leading a P5 team to a successful season. Somewhat Tom Bradyish
Starkel is a top five quarterback but since he plays for Arkansas he’s 10