SEC Week 11 predictions (and bets)
Time for our weekly picks and bets from around the SEC. As always, SDS news desk editor Michael Bratton (@MichaelWBratton) and SDS senior national columnist Connor O’Gara (@cjogara) go head-to-head, picking every SEC game against the spread while sharing their thoughts heading into each matchup.
Here are our Week 11 SEC selections:
Arkansas at LSU (-17)
Michael: This is a massive line for a rivalry game but there’s little reason to think Arkansas will put up a fight in this one considering the issues the team has had defending against the run and LSU having Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams in the backfield. The Tigers have been a different team since losing to Troy and very well could have beaten Alabama had Danny Etling hit a few of his deep shots down the field. The Tigers won’t need those plays to have success against this Razorback defense. While the Razorbacks have been having success on offense, Arden Key appears to have finally returned to his 2016 form. Not a great sign for an Arkansas team that struggles to protect its QBs.
LSU 38, Arkansas 13
Connor: It seems like the Tigers have been long overdue for a laugher. Here’s a crazy thought. Despite how well the Tigers have played since the Troy loss, they haven’t had a win by more than two scores since Chattanooga in Week 2. I think that changes this weekend. The Hogs are fresh off a scare against Coastal Carolina, and this defense hasn’t shown any signs that it can shut down a capable ground attack. The Danny Etling criticism takes a break this week and LSU stomps its way to a rare blowout win.
LSU 38, Arkansas 10
Louisiana at Ole Miss (-20)
Michael: Credit the Rebels for not giving up and earning a surprise win last weekend in Lexington. Jordan Ta’amu was a deserving winner of SEC Offensive Player of the Week after completing the game-winning pass on the road against Kentucky last weekend. While there are still major issues with the Rebels run defense, the offense should have no problem putting up points against one of the worst scoring offenses in the nation — Louisiana is giving up over 37 points per game. A win this week would set up an interesting game against Texas A&M in Oxford the following weekend.
Ole Miss 48, Louisiana 24
Connor: Man, the oddsmakers are really all in on Jordan Ta’amu and the Rebel offense. Never mind the fact that it’ll take on the same Louisiana squad that pushed Texas A&M earlier in the season (the Aggies cruised late). While I think the Rebels have a clear advantage in the passing game, I still question if they’ll be able to stop the run. Louisiana has a freshman tailback in Trey Vegas who is averaging 5.9 yards per carry, and he nearly hit the century mark against the Aggies. I think he runs wild against Ole Miss and at least keeps this one interesting.
Ole Miss 38, Louisiana 28
Florida at South Carolina (-7)
Michael: Things can’t possibly get much worse for Florida, can they? Last week’s showing was abysmal. Once the Gators got down they laid down. Hard to imagine that happens again this week, as some pride has to come shine through at some point. Meanwhile, South Carolina just lost a tough, physical game against arguably the SEC’s best team. If the Gamecocks had more talent, they may have walked out of Athens with a win last week. Needing to win every game left on the schedule to make it to a bowl, I like Florida to spring an upset and win this one outright.
Florida 21, South Carolina 20
Connor: Ah, the Will Muschamp bowl! I’d like to think that Muschamp had a nice ear-to-ear grin when he saw the spread for this one (you better believe he saw it). The fact that he’s a touchdown favorite against his former team has to be sweet. The question is obviously if his team can live up to it. The Gamecocks, perhaps more than any other team in the SEC, have a tendency to play to their competition. That’s not always a good thing when a team like Florida limps into town. This should be an early-round knockout. Nothing about Florida says it can go 15 rounds with a competent foe. I’ll lean on that thinking and say that the Gamecocks deliver the blow earlier than usual.
South Carolina 31, Florida 14
Georgia (-2.5) at Auburn
Michael: The game of the year to date in the SEC is set for an afternoon kick on the Plains. This should be one hell of a game between two teams featuring two physical defenses and offenses that love to pound the ball. While many have pondered all week how Jake Fromm will react to the game, he’s answered far more questions on the field than his counterpart Jarrett Stidham this season. The former Baylor QB has yet to win a game for the Tigers but will likely have the opportunity to do so this week, as Georgia’s secondary is not nearly as strong as the front seven. The loss of Kam Pettway hasn’t been an issue yet but could really hurt the Tigers in this matchup. How much of the running load can Kerryon Johnson carry by myself against this defense? If he puts on a terrific performance, it may be time for him to get some Heisman consideration. Georgia’s senior class, which, of course, includes Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, has yet to lose to Auburn. The most underrated aspect of Georgia’s roster may be their receivers and tight ends. I like those players to be the difference in this one in the best win of the season to date for the Dawgs. (I think Auburn would beat Notre Dame, in case you were wondering)
Georgia 21, Auburn 16
Connor: So for weeks, I’ve been saying that I believe in Georgia’s national title aspirations, but that I thought they’d suffer a hiccup at Auburn, I’m sticking to that. It’s not a slight to Georgia, which has been outstanding in all facets this season. It’s more about how difficult it is for a Power 5 team to go 12-0. Alabama makes it look easier than it is. Do I believe the Dawgs are the better team? Absolutely. But this game is at Jordan-Hare, and I think the Auburn offense puts Georgia in its first deficit of conference play. It wouldn’t surprise me if there were more points in this one than what conventional wisdom suggests. But something about this game feels like one of those dramatic Auburn victories late.
Auburn 31, Georgia 28
Kentucky at Vanderbilt (-2.5)
Michael: Kentucky may be the toughest team to predict in the league right now. How do the Wildcats lose the turnover margin by four against Tennessee yet win the game only to turn around and lose to lowly Ole Miss? Vanderbilt isn’t much easier to pick, the Commodores put it on Western Kentucky last week after five consecutive losses. The schedule sets up nicely for Vanderbilt to finish with a great record, with each game likely being a toss-up contest. While Benny Snell has been on a tear in recent weeks, he currently leads the SEC in rushing, I like Kyle Shurmur and company to come out on top in this one.
Vanderbilt 34, Kentucky 30
Connor: I mean, what has Vanderbilt done to be a favorite in any SEC game? To be winless in conference play this late in the season having lost all but one conference game by double figures suggest that the Commodores are a classic cellar dweller. Kentucky, on the other hand, is not. The Wildcats might’ve lost a devastating game late against Ole Miss, but I still think that Benny Snell should be able to get going in what figures to be a high scoring game.
Kentucky 37, Vanderbilt 31
Alabama (-14) at Mississippi State
Michael: It’s my belief that Mississippi State is the fourth-best team in the SEC this season. They have a young, nasty defense that is tough and physical. The running game is elite when it’s firing on all cylinders, the offensive line is vastly improved and Nick Fitzgerald has more game-breaking potential than just about any quarterback in the nation. Dan Mullen may very well be the league’s second-best coach and Todd Grantham has been a revelation for the program. Starkville may be the toughest environment to escape with a win in the league when the cowbells are ringing. Having said all that, Alabama is a terrible matchup for MSU. Alabama is No. 2 in the nation in stopping the run and has a massive advantage in the secondary going up against the Bulldog receivers. For all the great things Fitzgerald does, he has yet to consistently beat teams down the field with his arm — doing so in this matchup is the only way MSU keeps it close.
Alabama 48, Mississippi State 20
Connor: There are two schools of thought here. One could either look at the fact that the Bulldogs have actually looked really good at home this season. Or one could go with the belief that MSU has struggled mightily against the SEC’s elite and Alabama is indeed that. I’m going with the latter. Why will that happen? While Nick Fitzgerald has already surpassed some limited expectations in his career, he’s not usually the type of quarterback who succeeds against the Tide defense. He doesn’t push the ball downfield, and he isn’t particularly accurate. And with Alabama’s speed rushing off the edge, I question how much success he’ll have running the ball. Alabama is banged up, but the Tide reload and make a big statement in Starkville.
Alabama 42, Mississippi State 17
New Mexico at Texas A&M (-19)
Michael: If there’s one thing we’ve all learned about the Kevin Sumlin at A&M, it’s don’t trust the Aggies in November. Calling for Texas A&M to win by nearly three touchdowns by anyone this late in the season is a horrible idea. Considering A&M is only a two-point victory away — over a terrible Florida team — from a four-game losing streak, this team looks ready to call it a season. Add in the fact the offense has lost all its momentum under Kellen Mond and is currently rotating QBs like Steve Spurrier did back in the day, I’ll take New Mexico and the points.
Texas A&M 24, New Mexico 14
Connor: It’s hard to trust New Mexico to go into College Station and not get blown out this week. After all, the Lobos averaged 9.3 points per game the last month. That was against Mountain West foes. New Mexico simply can’t throw, which doesn’t bode well in a road game that it figures to be trailing in. Nick Starkel showed some promise in his return against a stout Auburn defense. I expect him to like what he sees even more against a New Mexico squad that surrendered 20 passing touchdowns this year.
Texas A&M 45, New Mexico 7
Tennessee at Missouri (-11)
Michael: The hype surrounding Missouri may be a bit overdone at the moment. All the Tigers have done to make many believe the program is trending in the right direction is beat a terrible Florida team the week it fired its coach and destroyed UConn and Idaho out of conference. While Tennessee has quickly turned into the laughingstock of the SEC, if not the nation, it’s easy to overlook the fact the team is still playing hard each and every week. The Tennessee defense, in particular, has shown up well nearly all season, outside of the Georgia Tech opener and in the second half against Georgia. The Vols have also been doing a great job of forcing turnovers in recent weeks and Jarrett Guarantano, who is listed as probable after missing the second half of last weekend’s game, appears to have found his footing in the offense. All that being said, Tennessee is currently devastated with injuries, again, and could easily give up a play or two that could be the difference in this game.
Missouri 31, Tennessee 27
Connor: I’m buying Missouri’s improvement. A month ago, I didn’t think that I’d type those words in 2017. But after watching this team play well offensively in three straight SEC games, I’m a believer in the Tigers’ offense, especially at home. Tennessee’s offense, on the other hand, is still missing in action. The fact that the Vols are double-digit underdogs against a Missouri team that has just one conference win tells you everything you need to know about the state of Tennessee football. I’m not sure it’ll really matter who Tennessee has under center on Saturday. Whoever gets the start won’t be able to keep up with Drew Lock and Co. The Vols’ free fall continues and John Currie continues to pretend that everything is fine in Knoxville.
Missouri 31, Tennessee 17
If Florida beats SC I will definitely be shocked as Florida has phoned it in….
That’s a pretty good description of Florida’s performance at this point.
I don’t see how Florida’s offense scores enough points to upset SC. The Auburn UGA game should be outstanding. That will be fun to watch. The KY Vandy game should also be fun to watch, but just not the same quality involved. Doesn’t mean it won’t be exciting. I do think that MSU can play Bama close. They normally play well at home. Too much talent on the Bama side though. Tennessee has continued to play hard, but their QB play has been the worst in the conference, and their play calling may be too. Missouri is gaining confidence and should win by double digits. Gonna be a fun Saturday.
Connor what an idiotic statement on Currie. Your inability to use logic makes you a great “journalist” for SDS.
Care to share the inside scoop on Currie that you obviously have?
All of Auburns games this year has ended either 2 ways, a blowout win for auburn or a close loss for auburn, i have no faith in gus winning a close game. I think auburn stops the run, forces uga in some 3rd and long situation’s that lead to a strip sack or a pick early in the game and auburn takes a early lead and never relinquishes it.
Auburn 29-17
Considering who the opponent is, 29-17 is a very close game. Close because it wouldn’t be nothin’ for the #1 team to catch back up. Tier 1 teams have a knack for that – closing gaps. This will be a very exciting match up bc of where the game is being played and because Auburn has a history of insane lucky game-winning plays.
Ark 17 LSU 41: This is a must win for LSU. Actually, the remaining 3 gms are must win. O got the tm to embrace this gm last yr after sleeping thru it in LM’s later yrs. Not anymore
LA 19 Ole Miss 49: Rebs stay hot after upset over UK. LA just doesn’t have the athletes. I like the Sharks backup QB. The Egg Bowl could be more competitive than people think this yr.
UF 13 SC 33: Gators have mailed it in. SC sees this as a big gm and will be fired up. They’re licking their chops for some long overdue payback.
GA 24 Aub 21: Gm of the week. Both tms can stop the run but UGAs front is slightly better and their RBs are as well. If its a shootout, I like Aubs chances. I don’t think it will be. I see a tight gm throughout.
UK 34 Vandy 31: Don’t know what to make of UK. Just when you think they’ll go on a run, they blow a easy W to Sharks. I don’t think Vandy will be able to overcome talent gap. But it’ll be close.
Bama 41 MSU 20: Bad matchup for ST. Tide will smother the run gm and corral Fitz. Eventually, the Tide’s run gm will take over. Hurts will get Ridley going in this one. The Tide are banged up so now we’ll get a look at the tms depth.
NM 17 A&M 45: Aggies usually run it up vs non power 5 ooc tms. Look for Kirk to have 3 TDs (1 on ST) and the Aggies run gm to get going.
UT 23 Mizz 30: UT hasn’t quit fighting which is a good sign. The Vols will run at will as Mizzou is allergic to tackling. However, Mizzou’s offense seems to be improved. I want to take UT but picking against Mizzou has burned me 2x in a row. I can see UT taking this one but I’m breaking my trend…
LSU 38, Arky 16. LSU should roll in this one.
Ole Miss 42, Ragin Cajuns 28. Could be close early, similar to the Aggies game against them.
South Carolina 27, Florida 20. Not really much to say, South Carolina is a better team.
Auburn 28, Georgia 24. I’m gonna call for the upset, although this one feels like a toss up. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Georgia win but right now I’m feelin’ Auburn.
UK 31, Vandy 21. Should be a decent win for the Cats but they’re weird. We’ll see I guess.
Bama 49, State 20. Like others have said, it’s just a bad match up. I don’t see State being able to move the ball on Bama early and eventually the defense will wear out. Sure hope I’m wrong though.
Aggies 42, NM 10. The Lobos are 3-6, should be a blow out for the Aggies.
Mizzou 37, UT 31. Both teams should be able to score plenty but Mizzou seems to really be on a run here.
Kirby has done an outstanding job this year emphasizing that the “past” has no effect on “today’. He preached that before the Florida game and it showed in the results 42-7. UGA is 11-4 vs Auburn since 2002. Yes, they have had some lucky outcomes at JHS. I’ve been slow to start drinking the Kool-Aid. I’ve been a UGA fan since 1982. I’ve seen this movie too many times, UGA can’t seem to win the big games it needs to and get over that NC hump…I believe Kirby has this team and program headed in the right direction. Recruiting, practice and attitude…UGA wins a close one.
This one is gonna be closer then that, Fitts has been playing real good and the defense has been hardnosed. Bama is good but they ain’t bulletproof. 31-28 Bama but we force a turnover or too and we take it 34-31 hailstate
Prediction: Fitz – 3 INT…we take two of them for 6.
Bama 45 – St 7
Fitz gonna run like Gump out the stadium, I think 3 TDs and 120 yards, throws for 200 yard 1 td with a pick or 2
StateDawg who is your dealer? I want some of what you’re smoking.
Don’t need a dispensary or dealer for truth uga, y’all gonna actually not fall flat on your jowl this year
So you’re growing weed or cooking meth, which is it, because State ain’t beating Bama 34-31.
No way is Fitz going to get 320 yards against bama…. Bama is going to play to take away the run. The only chance is if Fitz can complete passes down field and after the way he passed against UMASS…I don’t see it.
Oh here come the old piss rebel shark land bears, y’all may want to roll up the weed with the meth and start nummin the pain the ncaa fixin to put on yur pooper
Here come the gumps off the shrimpin boat, thats right i forget y’all only give up those kinda yards to titans like Colorado State
Aww are your feelings hurt? I think so. Listen to you. You can’t even participate in a discussion about football without getting personal. As far as Ole Miss’ troubles with the NCAA, we’re all prepared for the hammer and no longer fear it. Try and keep up because the whole “NCAA is going to hammer you” isn’t seen as an insult anymore. And, speaking of getting nailed, you better hope Fitz and Co. are getting ready because they’re about to be licking jelly out of Thunder Díck’s buttcrack this Saturday.
Bragging about the good guzzle of jelly yall took from old thunder dong, eh 66-3
I just think its funny yall posers was puffin out and pounding yur chests like your world beaters after a few decent years just to find out the load y’all was open throat swallowing from yur philanderin & bible thumpin coach was all a lie and cheat, heck he was cheating on the crootin trail,on the team, and on his family
You don’t come off as a very rational person with a even a hair of intelligence. I’ll just leave you to your filth. Nice throw away account by the way. I’ve got a hunch you’re either Rebel_Landshark or Bulldawgrock judging by how belligerent and pathetically weak your mind is.
Ah old preacher man rubbed on you didnt he Bunks, come out slingin mud in the trenches with the swine an whispering thin veiled attacks ,then the other side the mouth shouts innocently high and mighty
The only way State could hang with Bama is to start QB#2 and play Fitz at WR. Fitz is tall and fast and has played that position. Otherwise it’s gonna be like the last 8 years. Bama will shut down the run and State has no one to throw to. It will be over by the end of the 2nd qtr.
Uhh… You’re joking, right? Start the freshman who has only completed 42% of his passes (while only playing in garbage time) against the best defense we’ve seen all year? Keytaon isn’t ready and Fitz is a better QB in every way right now. The only thing that would do is erase the already bad passing game State has.
Yes, let’s bench one of the most prolific rushing quarterbacks the SEC has ever seen (or move him to another position) because that’s a genius gameplan. Yes, it’s a terrible matchup, but it’s the best shot we have. Here’s to hoping we have some WRs back from injury.
Of all the SEC v SEC games this weekend, I believe the LSU will have the largest margin of victory of all.
That’s a huge spread on Arkansas-LSU
LSU will definitely win, but my money is on Arkansas covering the 17 points.
I guess you missed the Arky game vs Coastal Nobody U where they almost lost.
Yeah, LSU may be up 17 at the end of the first quarter. LSU got into Bama’s backfield quite often last week. We have no O-Line. Arden Key and crew will eat us alive.