SEC Week 6 Primer: Auburn-Florida is back, more evenly matched than ever
Everything you need to know about this weekend’s SEC slate.
Game of the Week: Auburn at Florida (+3)
The stakes
Plenty of games are blessed with Playoff implications, as this one — a collision of undefeated, top 10 teams meeting for the first time since 2011 — certainly is. Very few, though, qualify as true, dead-even toss-ups, as this one certainly does. On paper, Tigers-Gators looks as tightly matched as any meaningful game of the entire regular season.
Auburn is (barely) the higher-ranked side, and comes in as (barely) the Vegas favorite at –3, the narrowest point spread to this point involving 2 SEC teams. Certain odds-making metrics tilt slightly in the Tigers’ favor, like Jeff Sagarin’s “Predictor” rating and ESPN’s Football Power Index, which puts their chances of a straight-up win at 53.2 percent — again, the narrowest outlook in any remaining SEC game. Others, like Bill Connelly’s SP+ system (in which Auburn and Florida are essentially tied) defer to the Gators’ home-field advantage in The Swamp. Auburn has outscored 3 Power 5 conference opponents by 15.7 points per game; Florida has outscored 3 Power 5 opponents by 15.2 ppg. Auburn outgained those opponents by 68 yards per game, Florida by 73 ypg. Auburn is banking on a true freshman quarterback, Bo Nix, making just his second road start; Florida will ride with a career backup, Kyle Trask, who has attempted fewer passes in 4 years (88) than Nix did in his first month (125).
Literally, flip a coin. The outcome could be one of the swingiest results of the year, with the winner moving on as a serious conference and national contender and the loser all but eliminated. But the actual distance between those two paths is likely to come down to just a handful of plays, at most.
The stat: 24
That’s Florida’s sack total through 5 games, best in the SEC by a wide margin and tied for 2nd in the nation.
Adam Shuler and Jabari Zuniga split the sack, but this play doesn't happen without Jonathan Greenard.
The #Gators BUCK pass rusher position is in great hands. Greenard's burst is top-notch. pic.twitter.com/Ak2EuoY3ST
— Zach Goodall (@zach_goodall) August 25, 2019
That number is inflated a bit by the Gators’ 10-sack extravaganza in the season-opening win over Miami, which came at the expense of a pair of wildly overmatched true freshman tackles playing in their first college game. In the meantime, the Gators have flown mostly under the radar while Auburn’s front has fully lived up to the hype as one of the most imposing position groups in the country. But don’t sell Florida’s veteran edge-rushing trio of Jonathan Greenard, Jabari Zuniga, and Jeremiah Moon short in that discussion, either — especially Greenard, a grad transfer from Louisville whose emphatic debut against the ‘Canes has carried over in wins over Kentucky and Tennessee, the latter in a big way. He’s recorded an SEC-best 6.5 tackles for loss on the season to go with 4 passes broken up and an interception in last week’s shutout win over Towson; with Zuniga expected back from a 2-game absence and a hostile crowd at fever pitch, Auburn’s offensive line is in for arguably the steepest test it will face on passing downs all season.
Also expected back from injury: All-SEC cornerback C.J. Henderson, whose presence has not been missed over the past few weeks but will be very welcome against the Tigers’ resident mismatch-maker, 6-3 sophomore Seth Williams. That’s one of two head-to-head battles when Auburn has the ball — along with LT Prince Tega Wanogho vs. whoever’s lined up across from him on a given snap — NFL scouts will be watching very closely.
The big question: Does Florida’s running game have a chance?
The Gators have struggled on the ground, averaging an SEC-worst 105.3 yards per game against FBS opponents on a meager 3.4 per carry. Part of that is the lack of a viable running threat at quarterback, a staple of Dan Mullen’s scheme at every stop in his career. Feleipe Franks was serviceable at best in that respect before he was lost for the season, and Trask has lost more yardage on sacks than he’s gained on positive runs. The running backs haven’t fared much better: Auburn’s leading rusher, Boobie Whitlow, has more yards to his name this season than Florida’s top 3 backs (Lamical Perine, Dameon Pierce, and Malik Davis) combined.
Florida’s strength on offense is its depth at receiver; there’s no star, but every wideout in the regular rotation is a potential draft pick, and targets are spread out accordingly. So far, Trask has looked comfortable throwing from the pocket, connecting on 77.3 percent of his passes for a very healthy 9.8 yards per attempt. He’s also eaten five sacks in the last two games, three of them at the hands of Towson. In response, Mullen challenged his offensive line to develop a “sense of urgency.” If the ground game continues to falter, getting stuck in a cycle of obvious passing downs against Derrick Brown and Co. is about as urgent as it gets.
The verdict
As noted, this will be the wobbliest and least confident prediction of the season. Mullen and Gus Malzahn know each other well. Auburn’s offense hit its stride last week against Mississippi State, which might turn out to be the beginning of Nix’s rapid ascent into the top tier of SEC quarterbacks; it might also turn out to be an outlier, with the defensively-driven efforts against Oregon in Week 1 and Texas A&M in Week 4 proving to be the rule. Florida is potentially dominant on defense but lacks an identity on offense. If it comes down to it, both teams have a kicker.
A lot has changed since the last time these teams played, but the basic shape of Saturday’s game should look just about the same as it did 8 years ago. Almost everything about this matchup points toward a 2011-style slugfest, right down to the inexperienced QBs lining up opposite 2 ferocious defensive fronts. The forecast calls for sweltering heat and humidity, which even for October seems exactly right.
Auburn 24, Florida 23
Georgia (-25) at Tennessee
Who will start at quarterback for Tennessee? Jarrett Guarantano remains atop the depth chart despite regressing badly throughout the Vols’ 1-3 start, and despite splitting practice reps with freshmen Brian Maurer and J.T. Shrout the past 2 weeks. As far as the outcome on Saturday goes, though, the distinction is splitting hairs. The better question is does it matter who will start at quarterback for Tennessee?
If the goal is to salvage some shred of respectability as lopsided underdogs against a major division rival, then sure, Guarantano might still give the Vols the best chance of preventing a mass exodus from Neyland in the 3rd quarter.
That kind of vibe is the last thing Jeremy Pruitt needs in a season that already feels like a lost cause. On the other hand, if the best you can realistically hope for from the status quo is not getting run out of your own stadium then it’s time to start thinking about what’s next. As heirs apparent go, neither Maurer nor Shrout was an especially well-regarded recruit — unlike Guarantano, a top 100 prospect in the class of 2016, they both arrived as 3-stars — but they are … well, apparent, at least until 2020 commit Harrison Bailey arrives next year. To have any chance of getting better, first it might have to get worse.
On Georgia’s side, Saturday night could be another chance for D’Andre Swift to make a dent in the Heisman conversation after his workmanlike effort in the Bulldogs’ win over Notre Dame. At the very least, would it be the end of the world if their star back logged 20 carries in a game, a threshold he’s yet to reach in his career? UGA isn’t inclined to give its starters stat-padding opportunities once a game is in hand, but Swift is too good to keep under wraps for weeks at a time. He’s due.
Verdict: Georgia 41, Tennessee 10
Utah State (+28) at LSU
There are some nagging questions about LSU’s defense after the Tigers allowed 38 points to Texas and Vanderbilt, and Utah State is a good measuring stick: The Aggies averaged 38.5 ppg in September despite losing most of the lineup that ranked No. 2 nationally in scoring offense last year, as well as the entire coaching staff. Junior QB Jordan Love isn’t going to match Joe Burrow touchdown for touchdown, but he isn’t going to be boring, either.
Verdict: LSU 45, Utah State 24
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss (-7)
At 1-3, bowl eligibility already looks like a pipe dream for Vandy — the Commodores are dead last in the SEC in scoring offense and defense while giving up more yards per play than all but 1 other FBS team — but this is a pivotal game for Ole Miss: At 2-3, the Rebels can’t afford to drop 2 games below .500 at midseason, especially when they’re almost certain underdogs in 5 of their last 6. It’s probably also the only conference game he could lose in Year 3 that would set off grumbling about Matt Luke on the hot seat.
Verdict: Ole Miss 32, Vanderbilt 23
Troy (+24.5) at Missouri
Troy’s secondary, a strength over the past few years, has already been burned to a crisp twice this season in losses to Southern Miss (514 yards, 3 TDs on 13.9 yards per attempt) and Arkansas State (455 yards, 4 TDs on 12.6 per attempt). Drew Lock used to set records in these games; if nothing else, Kelly Bryant ought to be in line for his best fantasy day in a Mizzou uniform.
Verdict: Missouri 41, Troy 22
Scoreboard
Week 5 Record: 6-0 straight-up / 3-3 vs. spread
Season Record: 41-8 straight-up / 24-25 vs. spread
Auburn will expose UF on Saturday. It’s not going to be pretty. Jeremy Pruitt is not going to be UT’s coach next season.
Who knows how Mizzou will play vs Troy.
Auburn and Florida are equally-matched?
Hinton, do you even watch college football???
These is nowhere Florida has an advantage over Auburn, and all of Auburn’s strengths either overwhelm Florida’s glaring weaknesses (Florida’s O-line, RBs, and QB vs. Auburn’s defensive front seven) or at most, is barely a push (Auburn’s O-line, RBs, and QB vs. Florida’s defensive front seven).
Florida is about to be destroyed at home by a much better football team, and then they’ll be destroyed at LSU, and then in the Cocktail Party, and oh yeah, Mizzou will hang Half-a-Hundred on them, as they have the last two years.
Everything is happening exactly as I predicted.
You’re pathetic
As best as I can tell, in an effort to fluff up the conference as a whole (so coattail riders can feel good about themselves), SDS loves to pretend every divisional game is a clash of titans that could go either way.
As you say, Florida has nothing. They’ll lose without ever being in the game. An hour later SDS will write an article about how auburn defeated the 85 Bears in Chicago and should be ranked #1 and it’s not close.
LOL!
How little you know.
Auburn has been tested against far better competition, so game stats to date are all but meaningless, as far as I’m concerned. Florida may be ranked in the top 10, but it’s that doesn’t mean much. Auburn will roll.
Auburn will roll is as of much of a fact as uga has won a natty in the past 40 years.
Nothing funnier than reading all these pathetic dawg fans’ totally predictable predictions
We don’t have any pro-Auburn bias, in fact, considering that UGA has to play Auburn at home this year, I’d prefer to see them be the weaker team on Saturday. I just think they’re a notch higher than Florida this year.
Ummm….seeing how it is 2019 and Ga won in 1980, then Ga has won a championship in the past 40 years. So that’s a fact.
So…yeah. You can figure out the rest.
After doing the math, I still wasn’t born then.
Strawman
Auburn vs. Florida – Game of the week – Can’t wait!
Auburn should shut down UF’s passing game and force the Gators into a ground game which hasn’t been very prolific yet this season.
Florida should shut down AU’s running game which has been more impressive than the passing game so far although Bo Nix may be on the verge of taking it to the next level.
UGA vs. UT – I remember to 90’s very well. UT fans were only happy to stick it to Georgia. With that in mind, I hope UGA hangs 50 on the Lady Vols.
Auburn’s passing defense is ranked 72nd in the country and they’re tied for 39th in sacks. Their strength on defense is stopping the run, not the pass, so claiming they’ll shut down the Gators passing game is an interesting take. I have no doubt they’ll shut down the run, but Mullen will find creative ways to use screen passes and jet sweeps instead of standard hand it off to the RB running plays. He knows full well how to attack an aggressive defensive line and help out a struggling o-line. He faces one every day in practice.
Transforming a concept into words can be challenging at times.
I wasn’t implying that Auburn WILL shut down UF’s passing game. I was suggesting it as a game plan.
Same with Florida. I wasn’t implying that Florida WILL shut down AU’s run game. I was suggesting it as a game plan.
Try giving people the benefit of the doubt sometimes. Maybe engage them in constructive conversation instead of automatically knowing exactly what every poster is thinking and rebuking them at every turn.
Florida’s o-line gave up 3 sacks to Towson, correct?
They ran for like 3 ypc against Towson, correct?
I honestly don’t think Auburn needs to have an aggressive defensive line to the level of Florida’s D. They’ll probably just rush 4 most of the game and protect the perimeter as best they can, unless Trask starts proving he’s a deep ball threat.
Games like this are why I want 9 SEC games. These teams shouldn’t go 8 years without playing each other.
^
The 3 keys of any tight matched game is turnovers, field position, red zone scoring. If Florida wins those three phases then I believe that’s their only chance of beating Auburn. That being said I believe Auburn wins 2/3 of those phases above and walks away with a 24-13 win over the Gators.
Let’s take it as a given, for a minute, that Auburn and Florida’s DL/pass rush is equal. It’s not, but let’s just take that as a given.
The game will be decided by which OL steps up. Who can reasonably think that UF’s trash OL will even slow down the Barns DL? Florida DL will make some plays for sure, but at least Auburn has a chance to slow them down. Not so much on the other side.
Some people seem to think Florida has nothing going for them. Trask ranks 4th in the SEC in passing efficiency, behind Tua, Burrow and Fromm. He has decent receivers. Florida’s defense ranks a few notches above Auburn’s vaunted defense, yet no one gives Florida credit because they played inferior competition. This may be the best team Auburn has faced so far. I’m not so sure Auburn will win. I wouldn’t bet on either team. I think it’s a close call. Keep in mind that since Trask took over, Florida has outscored their opponents 91-3. That’s nothing to scoff at, no matter who they were playing.
This is looking a lot like last season that’s for sure. The offense struggled for the first few games of the season and faced a ranked MSU team with a dominant defensive line and basically all the predictions for that one looked exactly like all of these. No one gave the Gators a chance, and not only did they win that game, but followed it up with an even better win against #5 LSU. No one seems to be factoring in that the defense hasn’t been at full strength in a single game all season, including against Miami with a few players suspended. They’ve had as many as 6 starters out on defense throughout the first 5 games, including 2 of their best. Everyone is expected back for this game. It’s not going to come down to whether the Gators can run the ball or not. They haven’t been able to all season, but still had success passing. They’re passing for almost 300 yards a game with Trask behind center. The one thing the line does pretty well is pass block. People are fooling themselves if they think this is just going to be a cakewalk for Auburn.
Pretty sure the only people predicting a “cakewalk” are three or four commenters per article from the troll ranks.
The fewer passes you throw, the better your passer efficiency can look. Which is why they came up with QBR. I can’t tell you where Trask ranks in QBR because ESPN only tracks the top 50.
Yep. Nix has thrown the ball 37 more times this year than Trask has his entire career.
Trask’s QBR is over 99 when not pressured and about 3 when pressured. Nix’s QBR is about 85 when not pressured and about 5 when pressured.
Been saying it all week Kyle Trask looks like Greyson Lambert. Give him a clean pocket, all day to throw, and wide open receivers he’s a world beater. He will have none of these against Auburn. UFs only chance is to put max pressure on Nix and pray the freshman folds and the game is a low scoring slug fest.
Dunno why so many people think UF is going to get crushed. Most Auburn fans think it’s going to be a slugfest. Should be a tight game. I’d love for UF to win and watch all the UGA and mizzou haters eat crow but we all know that if UF wins it will be because Auburn let them or let off the gas or the refs gave it to the Gators. I’d give a slight edge to Auburn but hoping for a close one! Go Gators!
No doubt that’ll be exactly what everyone says if the Gators win.
The reason I don’t think UF will win is that FL has not been impressive vs inferior competition. I do like Trask a lot better than Franks though.
Auburn beat Tulane 24 to 6. Not exactly impressive. It remains to be seen if Oregon and Tamu are good teams.
I think this game will come down to Grantham vs Gus. UF was only 5/12 on 3rd down vs Tenn so I just don’t see how they maintain drives when they can’t run the ball. But UF can definitely change the game on defense vs a true freshman QB. Auburn D-line saves them in the 4th for 19-13 win.
5/12 not really that bad. Better than average.
If Vandy can put up nearly 40 on LSU, then I think Utah State can break 30. I also think LSU can break 50 on Utah State.
Florida fans can tell themselves whatever fairy tale they need to sleep at night, the reality is that this is going to be a beatdown.
The resentment is strong in this one.
As noted, Auburn has beaten a couple ranked teams on the road and they absolutely destroyed MSU. On paper they look better than Florida in almost every respect. But Florida has The Swamp, where anything can and often does happen. Not every time but often enough to make this one harder to call.
I don’t see Florida making the final four but Auburn in the NC playoffs would not surprise me at all. So I’m kind of pulling for Auburn. Plus it might make the pasting they gave us look not quite so bad for us. Plus Mullen.
The big mistake I think many are making in looking at the Auburn-Florida game is putting too much weight on the presumed quality of Auburn’s prior opponents. the statistical services have that flaw built into their predictions. The Texas A&M win in particular doesn’t look all that special now. Their Oregon win is a quality win but it doesn’t mean they’re setting the world on fire. It just means they beat Oregon. Florida is ranked far higher than Texas A&M and Oregon.
As for Florida, we’ve beaten the teams we’ve played. Our 2s and 3s have played a huge number of snaps and two of our top defensive players (including our best) haven’t set foot on the field since early in the Kentucky game when they both suffered ankle injuries. Both will be back this Saturday.
Auburn’s D-line will be great at stopping Georgia’s pro style running game, but Mullen isn’t going to let them do what they do best. He’ll scheme around their interior strength.
The last time this scenario set up in the Swamp was 2015. #3 Ole Miss got boat-raced by the #25 Gators, 38-10. And it wasn’t that close.
Florida is only ranked 3 spots above Oregon lol. Also, Florida’s stats are inflated by the terrible opponents they’ve beat. Florida and Trask will be exposed. Auburn 42-10.
Florida’s D stats are deflated by the fact that their two best players (who will play tomorrow) haven’t played for the last three weeks. In total, the Gators will return six 1s and 2s who have been out to the defense tomorrow.
I’m not predicting a win but you are crazy if you think the score will be similar to the 2015 Ole Miss game
I don’t think it will be. But I do think that the Gators can win. I have no idea what the score will be.
I was suggesting that all the mega-hype for Auburn overlooks how talented and well coached the Gators are, and how tough it is to play in the swamp, regardless of who the Gators have played so far.