Many coaches are quick to say games are won or lost in the 4th quarter, but outside of winning the turnover battle, few stats define football more than 3rd-down conversion rates.

Just take a look at the top 5 teams on 3rd down in 2019:

  • Ohio State went 13-1 and won the Big Ten
  • Air Force went 11-2
  • Alabama went 11-2
  • LSU went 15-0 and won the SEC and the national championship
  • Oklahoma went 12-2 and won the Big 12.

That’s a combined record of 62-7 for the nation’s best at converting on 3rd down.

When a throw has to be made in a clutch situation, which quarterbacks are most likely to deliver the ball on target and keep the chains moving? That’s what I’ve set out to find.

Below you’ll find 2019 passing figures for SEC quarterbacks expected to see the vast majority of snaps next season. All stats come against Power 5 defenses with the exception of stats against BYU and Appalachian State added for more context.

Stats for 9 SEC quarterbacks can be found below, not including Feleipe Franks as he only attempted 11 passes on 3rd down in 2019 (he completed 8 of them which is good for a 72.7% completion percentage), as well as some stats for Georgia transfer Jamie Newman and Mississippi State transfer K.J. Costello. The transfer quarterbacks are not included in all tables as they obviously don’t have any SEC stats and faced defenses that aren’t comparable.

Season total 3rd-down passing numbers

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The first thing that jumps out is Jarrett Guarantano leading the pack for the second year in a row. Tennessee’s quarterback finished 2018 and 2019 with an identical 65% 3rd-down completion percentage. Each season, that led the SEC.

What that says to me is nothing new to Vol Nation. Guarantano has the talent to succeed, but his struggles with consistency and confidence continue to hold him back.

The next notable stat there is seeing Kellen Mond all the way down the list. That’s notable considering he has started the entire Jimbo Fisher era and even going back to the Kevin Sumlin era in College Station.

It’s hard to see Texas A&M contending in the West if Mond doesn’t improve on 3rd down in 2020.

K.J. Costello’s numbers were also very poor, but Mississippi State fans shouldn’t be completely discouraged by those figures. The former Stanford signal-caller battled through injuries last season, including a concussion early in the season, and performed significantly better in 2018. That doesn’t mean you can totally dismiss these figures, but it’s worth noting that he has played much better than what we saw from him in 2019.

Next, we look at how the returning quarterbacks performed on 3rd-down in SEC play last season.

SEC season total 3rd-down passing numbers

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Once again, Guarantano leads the way while Mac Jones rated just slightly below, even though Jones had fewer than half the reps in SEC play. Considering Jones was forced into action due to injuries to Tua Tagovailoa, it’s safe to assume these numbers are likely to trend up given an extra offseason of work and a training camp with more reps with the first-team offense in Tuscaloosa.

Kyle Trask’s numbers dipped a bit in SEC play. He had some solid performances against FSU and Virginia, and he’ll need to get those numbers up if Florida is going to live up to the hype next season.

However, when you consider Trask was also forced into action due to injury and he had never started in college or the majority of his high school career, his numbers are even more impressive. He is another quarterback who stands to greatly benefit this offseason and the training camp heading into the season.

Bo Nix has plenty of critics, but his numbers improved during conference play. Auburn’s first 3 games of the season were against nonconference opponents and Nix’s play clearly improved by the backend of the schedule.

Once again, Mond is listed too low for comfort. He finished behind Ryan Hilinski, who was banged up for much of his true freshman season and attempted 28 more passes than Mond on 3rd-down. That’s a serious concern.

Next, we look at the numbers for each quarterback during victories in 2019. The Mississippi schools didn’t win enough last season, and based on these stats, could only do it when the former coach staffs at Ole Miss and Mississippi State found ways to have success with their freshmen quarterbacks.

3rd-down passing numbers during wins

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Next, we examine 3rd-down passing figures during losses.

One of the more interesting stats discovered during this entire process comes with Trask’s numbers. Florida only lost 2 games last season, but Trask showed up in those games. He was nearly 10 percentage points higher than any other signal-caller on this list.

South Carolina lost too many games last season and Hilinski has been criticized by many, but based on these numbers, he did his part. He wasn’t the reason they lost 8 games.

While Shrader and Corral performed well in wins, they faired very poorly in losses during their college debuts.

3rd-down passing numbers during losses

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Finally, we look at the total results of these numbers.

While completing a large percentage of passes on 3rd-down is ideal, if those completions are going for first downs or scores, they don’t mean much.

3rd-down results

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If you could somehow overlook his major gaffes on the field, Guarantano looks the part of a successful quarterback based on his numbers. However, Tennessee likely still doesn’t have the roster to overcome his mistakes in league play. The Vols’ hopes in 2020 may rest on Guarantano’s ability to keep himself in check and not cost his team games.

Trask and Jones responded well last season when thrust into action. Now we wait to find out if either one can elevate their game to the next level. If so, they’ll likely see their names atop these lists by the end of 2020.

Based on these numbers, Texas A&M might have to find alternative ways to succeed on 3rd-down as Mond’s numbers aren’t going to get it done for a program hoping to finally punch its ticket to Atlanta.

With so much star power gone at the quarterback position, the opportunity exists for several of these the returning signal-callers to step up into the spotlight and become household names around the nation.

The SEC also featured so many freshmen quarterbacks last season, it’s reasonable to expect many of these numbers to jump up in 2020 which could make for some exciting football in the fall. Based on the early results from Nix and Hilinski, the void under center in the SEC may not be there for long with these two stepping up, along with Corral and John Rhys Plumlee in Oxford, and the transfers of Newman, Costello and Franks bring experience to programs in need next fall.