It’s only a matter of time.

The last season every SEC program returned its head coach was 2006.

Alabama brought in Nick Saban in 2007. It started a trend. Every year since, there’s been at least one change. And every other SEC school is on at least its second head coach. Several are on their third. Tennessee is on its fourth.

Some coaches resigned, most were fired. During and after the 2012 season, four head coaches lost their job.

While we don’t expect that to repeat in 2017, history has shown at least one school will make a change.

Who will it be? That’s something we’ve been discussing all week:

Jon Cooper, director of operations: I’m going out on a limb here and say no coach is going to get fired this season. Crazy? Maybe.

My theory is the SEC is such an average conference right now (outside of Alabama and maybe Georgia) that hot-seat coaches will win “must-win” games. We’re already seeing it with Kevin Sumlin. He had to win the Arkansas game and found a way to do it. Georgia is a massive game for Butch Jones on Saturday, too. Can Jones pull off the upset? It’s doubtful, but there’s still plenty of time for the Vols to win eight or nine games, buying time for Jones to get through another season.

If there’s one coach likely to get fired first, it’s Sumlin. Jones and Bret Bielema are owed massive buyouts, but money isn’t a thing for Texas A&M.

The problem with firing coaches is programs have to find someone better to lead it. There are more elite programs than elite coaches, and no team wants to “settle” like LSU did.

Connor O’Gara, senior national columnist: I know he’s coming off a win, but I still say it’s Sumlin. No other SEC coach had the preseason pressure from his administration that Sumlin had. To me, one win against Arkansas doesn’t change that.

The schedule is still extremely daunting. I question how Kellen Mond is going to navigate a four-game stretch that includes Alabama, Florida, Mississippi State and Auburn. Those four defenses are a significantly better than the Arkansas group that he faced on Saturday. The Aggies have playmakers, but it doesn’t matter if teams know you can’t throw the ball.

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Sumlin could easily still be looking at a situation in which he has three SEC losses before November, which would cap their maximum regular season win total at eight. To me, that would be all she wrote for him in College Station.

Adam Spencer, Missouri beat reporter: If Barry Odom was going to be the first coach fired, it would have happened by now, as Mizzou is entering a convenient (and much-needed) bye week. Should AD Jim Sterk have given the real Coach O (apologies to Ed Orgeron) the boot, the interim coach would have had two full weeks to get up to speed.

Bret Bielema’s massive $15.5 million buyout looms large in Fayetteville (though some enterprising fans are trying to help out), so I think he’s safe through this year. Jim McElwain isn’t going anywhere and Sumlin has taken some pressure off himself for now.

That leaves Butch “Fake News” Jones as the first coach out. I don’t think a home loss to No. 7 Georgia this weekend would be enough to get him canned, but the Vols do have a bye after taking on the Bulldogs. Let’s say Tennessee gets blown out this weekend — like by five scores or more. That would likely force new AD John Currie to make a change in Knoxville. Whether it happens this weekend or not, though, I think Jones is going to be the first SEC coach to get the pink slip this year.

Michael Bratton, news editor: Believe it or not, Ed Orgeron will be the first coach fired this season from the SEC.

As a head coach at three schools, Coach O has never beaten a team that has had more talent on its roster than his. It didn’t take long for LSU fans to realize he often drops games to teams with inferior talent, too. Mississippi State is a solid team but not the world-beaters LSU made them look like just two weeks ago.

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Following the homecoming game against Troy, it’s conceivable LSU will be in toss-up games the rest of the way in the final six games of the season — at Florida, Auburn, at Ole Miss, at Alabama, Arkansas, at Tennessee and Texas A&M. If the Tigers drop three or more of these games, it would be wise for the program to admit its mistake and bring in an elite head coach a program of LSU’s caliber deserves.

Don’t pay attention to most of the “hot seat” talk. It’s very unusual for a head coach to be let go midseason and I don’t see it happening this year in the league, either. Even when a move is made early, that doesn’t guarantee a head start helps in the coaching search. Just look at LSU’s “search” last season. LSU will give Orgeron his walking papers in November and land a better coach this time around without the “advantage” of a months-long search.

Luke Glusco, copy editor: I admit it’s fickle as heck for me to say Butch Jones will go first after saying less than two months ago that people should get off his back.

Well, I based that opinion more on his W-L record than on actually paying attention to Tennessee football. Having watched a few games and a few press conferences, things look different.

Jones comes across as a rah-rah high school coach who somehow wound up in the SEC. His players spout the same boring, stock answers, passionlessly suggesting that they need to play with more passion. These supposed great recruiting classes don’t seem to contain the same type of players Alabama and Georgia are getting. If they are the same type of players, then the blame of course has to go back to the staff.

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On top of all that, we have the absolute Butch-ering of clock management against Florida. The Gators never should have had time for a final drive. That game, at worst for Tennessee, has to go to overtime. The Vols had first-and-goal on the 9-yard line with 1:02 remaining. The Gators had two timeouts left. So Tennessee throws (incomplete) three straight times and takes all of 12 seconds off the clock.

After the tying field goal, Florida has 50 seconds and two timeouts when it should have had about 10 seconds and no TOs.

These multi-million-dollar coaches should be able to manage an end-game. Or hire an assistant for $500,000 who can. It’s not that hard.

My guess is that Georgia hammers Tennessee and Butch is gone. The school’s higher-ups will decide Jones has topped out.

Of course, the way this SEC season is going, it’ll probably be an incredibly tight game.

Chris Wright, executive editor: I think at least two, possibly three coaches will be fired this season. Jones sounds like a man desperately fighting for his job. But he’s sounded that way for a while. Saturday could be his swan song. There is nothing but negative energy surrounding that program right now. That trash can took on a whole new meaning.

Oh, how I would have loved to have watched last Saturday’s game with Jalen Hurd, when John Kelly got stuffed on a 3rd-and-3 out of the Pistol. People blasted Hurd for blasting the scheme, but he had a point.

If Arkansas truly believed it could contend, Bielema would be a logical choice. At some point, reality has to kick in. I think the reality of Arkansas’ ceiling will save Bielema this season, but I don’t see a whole lot behind Austin Allen to save him next year. On merit alone, he hasn’t done enough to continue, but what coach is bringing a Playoff push to Fayetteville? There are 30 Power 5 schools just like Arkansas. You can waste a lot of money going through head coaches and still end up on the same floor.

Two weeks ago, I would have said Sumlin, but I think he and the Aggies have figured something out with Mond. We need more than one game, but if he can play anywhere near that level the rest of the season, the Aggies look formidable enough on offense to outscore South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi State and Auburn. Three of those games are at home.

The McElwain situation is interesting. How much longer will Scott Stricklin stand by a guy he didn’t hire whose program continues to generate embarrassing headlines off the field, and not nearly enough excitement on it?

I’ve seen enough to believe McElwain doesn’t really know how to fix either issue. He hasn’t had a long time, but he’s had long enough.