There were some lofty expectations for Texas A&M entering the 2022 college football season. Before Week 1, Jimbo Fisher’s squad was ranked No. 6 in the AP Top 25. Now, through 10 weeks of Fisher’s 5th season, the Aggies need to beat the odds to make a bowl game.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly shared Monday that the SP+ numbers put Texas A&M’s odds at going bowling at just 23% entering Week 11.

Connelly’s SP+ computer model is an “opponent- and tempo-adjusted look at the most sustainable and predictive aspects of college football. It is intended to be predictive and forward-facing.” SP+gained a notable following for how its score projections fared as bets against the Vegas point spread.

Texas A&M is 3-6 in 2022 after falling 41-24 to Florida in Week 10. The Aggies are on the road at Auburn in Week 11 before closing out the year at home against UMass and LSU.

It has been a rough year for Fisher’s squad, particularly with health issues, including the losses of Ainias Smith and Max Johnson. Texas A&M dealt with a flu outbreak against Florida, leaving the Aggies without QB Connor Weigman and other key players. Fisher said Monday that Weigman will be QB1 against Auburn.