Ahead of LSU’s SEC West clash with Auburn, we take a look behind some of the numbers that could decide the matchup.

THE GOOD

  • 27. Auburn likes to crank up the tempo, especially after they pick up a first down. They’ve converting on better than 58 percent of their third down attempts, but LSU is holding opponents to just 27 percent on third downs. Staying close to that figure will be a critical point for LSU’s defense.
  • 9. Thanks to some good fortune, Auburn is only losing 22 percent of their fumbles this season. However, they’ve put the ball on the ground nine times already, something LSU’s defense should be excited about. The Bayou Bengals’ opponents have fumbled 10 times through five games, with LSU recovering six times.
  • 3. LSU is young, but only three true freshmen — assuming Davon Godchaux again starts in place of Quentin Thomas at defensive tackle — will be starting in this road game. Brandon Harris, making his first start, is obviously a critical piece, but he’ll be protected by a veteran offensive line that looked much better once Harris came into the game last week. Malachi Dupre, who has come on strong at wide receiver, is the third.

THE BAD

  • 5.5. The weak spot on LSU’s defense, stopping the run, goes up against the strength of Auburn’s offense. LSU is allowing 4.5 yards per carry, while Auburn is churning out 5.5 yards per rush. If Nick Marshall can get going (Auburn is 14-0 when he rushes for 100 or more yards) then LSU will be hard-pressed to come out with a victory.
  • 7. Auburn has only given up 7 “explosive” plays, which we define as runs of more than 20 yards and passing plays that go for 30 yards or more. That’s bad news for LSU’s Tigers, who have thrived on the big play this season with 21 explosive plays.
  • 14.5. Since Les Miles came to Baton Rouge, LSU is 2-2 in games played at Auburn. Miles’ Tigers are only averaging 14.5 points in those four games, a number that simply won’t get it against this potent Auburn team. They’ll need a performance that more closely resembles the 2008 game, a 26-21 win, than the 2006 or 2012 games, when LSU combined for 15 points.