Let’s flash back more than four months ago to this year’s SEC Media Days, where Tennessee was picked to finish second in the SEC East.

The same media contingent predicted that Auburn would win the SEC Championship, but we digress. Look at where the Volunteers are now: They’re a win from finishing — you guessed it — second in the SEC East. They still have to beat Vanderbilt at home to accomplish that goal, but ESPN’s Football Percentage Index is giving them a 91.9 percent chance to do it.

Even better still, a victory over the Commodores will do more than help Tennessee finish ahead of Georgia in their division; it would give the Vols a five-game winning streak and an eight-win season for the first time since 2007, when they finished 10-4 in Phillip Fulmer’s next-to-last year in Knoxville.

So the Volunteers have a shot at nine victories this season — but their four defeats truly tell their story in 2015.

In losses to Oklahoma, Florida and Arkansas, Tennessee squandered leads of at least 13 points. Against, Alabama, the Vols were up by a point before Derrick Henry scored a touchdown with 2:24 left to seal the Tide’s 19-14 victory. But consecutive victories over Kentucky, South Carolina, North Texas and Missouri have helped the Volunteers learn how to close things out.

Tennessee’s four disappointing defeats have been tempered somewhat by the Vols’ current four-game winning streak, which is fitting in a season full of ups and downs.

It’s a little disconcerting that LSU’s Brandon Harris is averaging more passing yards per game (182.1) than Joshua Dobbs (180.5), but the Vols’ junior QB has a decent 13-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and seems to have adjusted well after SEC defenses caught up to him following the big strides he made in 2014.

Jalen Hurd is averaging fewer yards per carry than he did last season (4.44 versus 4.73) but he has run for a career-high 1,038 yards. With 10 rushing TDs, he has doubled his output from 2014.

Even the Tennessee defense, which has taken its share of criticism over the years, has improved. The Volunteers are allowing a couple more total yards per game than they did last year (366.7 compared to 364.6), but they are also surrendering nearly four points per game fewer than last year’s 24.2 a contest.

So yes, surrendering a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead to Oklahoma before losing to the Sooners in overtime was disheartening, but now the Vols can say that they lost a one-score game to a team on the verge of a College Football Playoff spot.

And it’s true: The Volunteers had a golden opportunity to win in Tuscaloosa — which only Ole Miss has done — but the 19 points that Alabama scored in that Oct. 24 game were a season low.

Tennessee’s defeat at Florida still stings, but losing on the road to the eventual SEC East champion that has only one loss is nothing to be ashamed of. Falling at home to the Razorbacks is definitely not as forgivable as getting chomped by the Gators is, but Arkansas also will be playing in bowl game, so that softens that blow somewhat.

This year’s Volunteers are definitely a flawed team. But Butch Jones is taking them to their second straight bowl and they have an excellent shot to exceed last year’s total of seven wins.

In short, the Vols haven’t underachieved or overachieved this season: They’re one victory from accomplishing what they were expected to do — finish second in the SEC East. Doing so would be a marked improvement from 2014, when they went 3-5 in SEC play and tied for fourth in the division.

Their 2015 season is more than likely not as good as they — or their fans — were hoping it would be, but Year 3 of the Jones era is definitely a campaign the Volunteers should be able to build on.