Auburn’s Gus Malzahn was not going to get fired in 2015, almost no matter what.

Two years removed from an SEC Championship, Malzahn entered the year as the SEC favorite. He’d just hired defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, one of the biggest splash assistant coaching moves in the program’s history. His offense was almost legendary, what with the success of transfer quarterbacks Cam Newton (as a coordinator) and Nick Marshall.

The Tigers’ 2015 team bordered on miserable, finishing last in the SEC West and clawing its way into the Birmingham Bowl — only to watch Muschamp leave with most of the defensive coaching staff in tow. Yet there never was doubt that Malzahn would return. That drama was left to places like Athens and Baton Rouge.

But the coaching version of the grim reaper is at least scouting out the road to Auburn via Google Maps this offseason.

For whatever it’s worth, the website CoachesHotSeat.com ranks Malzahn as having the third-hottest seat in FBS, just two spots behind Texas A&M’s Kevin Sumlin.

The label “offensive genius” no longer follows Malzahn like a halo. After a miracle finish against the Tide in 2013 and a close loss to Florida State in the final BCS Championship, some even debated whether Malzahn was a worthy foil for coach Nick Saban. After Alabama put up 55 points in the 2014 Iron Bowl and then seemingly did not need to throw the ball past the line of scrimmage in ’15, even Tide offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin is a hotter coaching name at the moment.

This is not a piece written with the goal of judging Malzahn as a coach. He’s done some good things and he’s done some bad things in three seasons on The Plains.

Back to the initial statement: Malzahn was not going to lose his job in 2015, no matter what the team did. The same can’t be said in 2016. This season is a critical juncture in the Malzahn tenure, and one that could define his legacy. It feels like there are so many realistic possibilities.

What, exactly, would it take for athletic director Jay Jacobs to decide change is necessary?

Jacobs became Auburn’s athletic director in 2004, so he’s presided over two football coaching searches, first to replace Tommy Tuberville after 2008 and then to replace Gene Chizik after 2012.

Tuberville won or shared a handful of SEC West titles within six years, including a 13-0 season and No. 2 final ranking in ’04 and a 9-2 regular season that saw LSU win a division tiebreaker in ’05 — Jacobs’ first two years on the job. He followed that with an 11-2 season in ’06 and continued to be one of the more respected coaches in the entire SEC.

The next season, the first for Saban at Alabama, Tuberville ran Auburn’s Iron Bowl winning streak to six games. He won nine times in ’07 and finished the season ranked in the top 15 for a fourth consecutive year.

But after one miserable season — a 5-7 year in 2008 — Tuberville resigned. Jacobs insisted he tried to talk Tuberville out of it. There were signs that Auburn had started to trend in the wrong direction aside from the record. But however you slice it, a well-respected coach slipped for a year and that’s all it took.

Chizik, a controversial hire, led Auburn to a national championship just two years into his tenure. That led to a spectacular collapse — from 14-0 in 2010 to a winless SEC season in 2012. Chizik lasted four years before Jacobs fired him in favor of Malzahn, his one-time offensive coordinator.

There have been similar dramas in other sports under Jacobs’ watch, but let’s stick to football here. There have been cracks in the Malzahn perception, especially after last season.

The coaching staff seemed to have no answer at quarterback, as Jeremy Johnson, who matriculated in the system for two years before becoming starter, wet the bed in his first three starts, leading to a quick hook. The team seemed to drift at the position for the rest of the season, alternating between Johnson and Sean White.

When Muschamp left, he insinuated that Auburn’s program wasn’t as strong as it seemed from the outside. The Tigers also had a difficult time hiring a replacement defensive coordinator before eventually luring Kevin Steele from LSU with the reward of working in the same program as his brother.

There is hope. Malzahn’s offense has been at its best when the team works the read-option to perfection. Transfer quarterback John Franklin III is more like Marshall with his skill set, and a full season of running back Jovon Robinson could be exciting.

Carl Lawson’s decision to return means that Auburn’s defense should at least feature a talented defensive line.

It seems unlikely that the Tigers will repeat last year’s 7-6 debacle (2-6 in the SEC). But, unlike a year ago, virtually no one is predicting Auburn to contend for a College Football Playoff spot either. That should put the team somewhere in between those two extremes, in more of a gray area.

Back to Jacobs. The athletic director has a very favorable contract, as it appears that Auburn renews his five-year deal on an annual basis. It also includes a relatively hefty buyout. He’s a very good fundraiser, so despite some occasionally questionable coaching decisions, he’s got at least some leverage against losing his job.

Like most athletic directors, Jacobs tends to throw himself behind his coaches — until he decides to make a change. But for what it’s worth, he seems unafraid to act decisively when he deems it’s necessary, even with the football team and even if a good portion of the public disagrees.

Chizik followed his national title by going 11-14 in the next two seasons. Tuberville was 14-11 in the two seasons before resigning. Both coaches left town after losing seasons. Gus Malzahn is 15-11 in the last two years.

All three situations were different.

Tuberville had been at Auburn for a full decade — plus, it was apparent that Saban changed the equation within the state, and there was some pressure to react.

Chizik brought a losing record with him to the Tigers and saw the program essentially collapse after Newton left for the NFL. There was an element of “I told you so!” with Chizik, who, right or wrong, didn’t get all that much credit for the national title.

Malzahn has gone from 7-1 to 4-4 to 2-6 in the SEC in just three years as head coach. But it doesn’t feel as inevitable as it did at the end of the Tuberville or Chizik tenures.

Perhaps if Malzahn can return the team to 4-4 in the SEC in 2016, and boast of a positive trajectory moving forward, that will be enough. Finish sub-.500 in the SEC again, and limp into another uninspiring bowl, and Jacobs would be forced to make some difficult considerations.

Aside from wins, perception is going to matter for Malzahn. If he can get back some of his offensive mojo, continue to recruit well and show some semblance of figuring out the equation on defense, that should be enough. But if the fan base and boosters lose confidence in Malzahn’s leadership during this football season, his job could be very much in jeopardy.

It would’ve been borderline ludicrous to fire yet another coach within two years of a national championship appearance, one who was just three years into his tenure. But if Malzahn turns out a three-year record of 22-17 or 23-16, with no real momentum, it’s at least fair to ask whether he’s the right man for the job. Jacobs would take some heat as well, but if he could secure a replacement coach like Houston’s Tom Herman, he’d be able to sell it.

Malzahn doesn’t need to crush Alabama and win an SEC Championship in 2016 to keep his job. Despite residing in the state of Alabama, Auburn fans are surprisingly realistic and fair-minded. But Malzahn does need to show enough to return some excitement to a program that just went through a depressing last year.