The Texas A&M Aggies and Texas Longhorns have historically been the top two college football programs in the state of Texas. While the Longhorns have held the edge in the long run, A&M’s move to the SEC — which accompanied the Johnny Football era in College Station as well as a dip in gridiron and recruiting success for the Horns — helped the Aggies move into the top spot in 2012 and 2013.

It’s obvious that both Texas and Texas A&M are better programs today than several of their college football neighbors, including North Texas, Texas State, UTSA, UTEP, and SMU. Also, Texas Tech doesn’t compare in terms of historical prestige, recent on-field success, recruiting prowess, or pro development.

The same can be said for Houston – a fast-riser in the Lone Star State under head coach Tom Herman and a potential top 25 team again in 2016, but still a notch below the big boys because the Cougars reside in the American Athletic Conference instead of the Power Five.

However, when looking at the “state of the state” today, things continue to shift. TCU and Baylor have become legitimate national championship contenders, making it less clear where the Aggies rank overall. Is Texas A&M still a better program because of its place in the nation’s elite conference, its recruiting success and its world-class facilities, or have the upstarts from Fort Worth or Waco — or what could be a rebounding Longhorns team — overtaken the Aggies as the top program in the state?

We take a look using a set of specific grading criteria, which focuses primarily on the last three years:

  • Team record (last three seasons)
  • Championships(last three seasons)
  • Recruiting rankings (last three seasons according to the 247Sports Composite)
  • Players selected in the NFL Draft (last three years)
  • Postseason ranking across each of the last three seasons, according to the final AP poll
  • Conference prestige, via letter grade
  • All-time program prestige, via letter grade
  • Coaching prestige, via letter grade

We then give some of the positive aspects of each top-four program, any negatives that could hurt its standing, and an outlook for 2016 and beyond to determine how Texas A&M — and the rest of the state — rank.

Ranking the Top 4 college football programs in Texas…

4. TCU Horned Frogs

  • Record
    • 2015: 11-2 (7-2)
    • 2014: 12-1 (8-1)
    • 2013: 4-8 (2-7)
  • Championships
    • 2015: None
    • 2014: Big 12 co-champions
    • 2013: None
  • Recruiting Rankings
    • 2016: No. 23 nationally, No. 4 in the Big 12
    • 2015: No. 42, No. 7
    • 2014: No. 43, No. 7
  • NFL Draft, Last Three Years
    • 2015: Paul Dawson (Round 3), Tayo Fabuluje (Round 6)
    • 2014: Jason Verrett (Round 1)
    • 2013: Josh Boyce (Round 4), Stansly Maponga (Round 5)
  • Postseason Ranking, Last Three Years
    • 2015: No. 7
    • 2014: No. 3
    • 2013: NR
  • Conference Prestige: B+
  • All-Time Program Prestige: B-
  • Coaching Prestige: A

Positives

TCU has one of the most respected head coaches in the nation in Gary Patterson. A defensive mastermind and 4-2-5 pioneer, Patterson helped the Horned Frogs become one of the elite teams from a non-power conference in the 2000s, winning 10 games or more nine times from 2000-11 as a member of the WAC, Conference USA and Mountain West. That success helped raise the national profile of the Horned Frogs, which eventually led to an invitation to the more prestigious Big 12.

While TCU stumbled in its first two power conference seasons since the dissolution of the Southwest Conference, the Horned Frogs have responded with back-to-back top-10 finishes and have spent the bulk of the last two years fighting for a College Football Playoff spot – the first time the program has competed for a national championship since the late 1950s (yes, despite the fact the Frogs finished No. 2 in the polls in 2010).

As a result, the program took a big step forward in its recruiting rankings in 2016, which is great because the Horned Frogs must replace some of their most talented playmakers.

Negatives

Considering only the last three seasons, the only real blemish for TCU is its 2013 record. However, even with the recent uptick in recruiting, the Horned Frogs also lag behind the Longhorns, Aggies and Bears in overall talent.

Patterson and his coaching staff have a tremendous track record of finding overlooked prospects and developing them into stars, NFL prospects, and under-the-radar contributors, but that has become more difficult in the Big 12. Until the Horned Frogs consistently land top 15 recruiting classes, they are likely to remain in the No. 4 spot in the state – with Houston challenging to overtake them.

Outlook

The future is bright in Fort Worth because TCU (along with Baylor) is changing the landscape of the Big 12. For decades, Oklahoma has relied heavily on talent from the state of Texas to compete for conference and national titles. Oklahoma State has also done a solid job of sneaking south and picking up some key players Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma overlooked.

However, now Baylor and TCU are first in line for the players left over from the blue blood programs in the Lone Star State, which has had a major impact on the Sooners and Cowboys. That has allowed TCU to reach near equal footing with OU and overtake Oklahoma State in the Big 12 hierarchy.

3. Texas Longhorns

  • Record
    • 2015: 5-7 (4-5)
    • 2014: 6-7 (5-4)
    • 2013: 8-5 (7-2)
  • Championships
    • 2015: None
    • 2014: None
    • 2013: None
  • Recruiting Rankings
    • 2016: No. 11 nationally, No. 1 in the Big 12
    • 2015: No. 10, No. 1
    • 2014: No. 16, No. 2
  • NFL Draft
    • 2015: Malcolm Brown (Round 1), Jordan Hicks (Round 3), Mykkele Thompson (Round 5), Quandre Diggs (Round 6), Geoff Swaim (Round 7)
    • 2014: None
    • 2013: Kenny Vaccaro (Round 1), Marquise Goodwin (Round 3), Alex Okafor (Round 4)
  • Postseason Ranking
    • 2015: NR
    • 2014: NR
    • 2013: NR
  • Conference Prestige: B+
  • All-Time Program Prestige: A
  • Coaching Prestige: B

Positives

Texas still has the greatest history of any college football program in the state. The Longhorns claim four national titles and have been awarded three by the Associated Press – both of which are more than any other FBS program in the state. Texas also won the state’s most recent national championship in 2005 and last competed in a national title game in 2009.

Because of the rich history surrounding the program, the Horns remain one of the best recruiting programs in the state and annually compete with Texas A&M to sign the most talented players in arguably the country’s most talent-rich locales. While Texas hasn’t landed a top-5 class since 2012, recruiting is trending in the right direction under head coach Charlie Strong. The Longhorns recently won the unofficial state recruiting title for the first time in five years.

Negatives

The record says it all. Texas is the only program in our top four that has recorded two losing seasons in the last three years. Texas Tech, Houston and Rice have all posted a winning record in at least two of the last three seasons. The Horns also haven’t won the Big 12 or factored in the national title race since 2009 – an unacceptable standing in Austin.

Worst of all, the Longhorns are the only team in our top four to finish each of the previous three campaigns unranked. Understandably, Strong – while regarded as a defensive mastermind – has one of the hottest seats in the coaching profession entering the 2016 season.

Outlook

The Horns still carry a great deal of weight in the Long Star State and will therefore continue to recruit well and produce NFL talent. As a result, it’s more likely for Texas to compete for a national title in 2016 or beyond than TCU. But, because of back-to-back losing seasons, Texas has slipped to third in the state – and is dangerously close to falling behind the Horned Frogs. If the Longhorns underachieve again and miss the postseason for a second straight year, and TCU continues to win, the Longhorns likely would fall out of the top three.

2. Texas A&M Aggies

  • Record
    • 2015: 8-5 (4-4)
    • 2014: 8-5 (3-5)
    • 2013: 9-4 (4-4)
  • Championships
    • 2015: None
    • 2014: None
    • 2013: None
  • Recruiting Rankings
    • 2016: No. 18 nationally, No. 8 in the SEC
    • 2015: No. 11, No. 6
    • 2014: No. 5, No. 3
  • NFL Draft
    • 2015: Cedric Ogbuehi (Round 1), James Harrison (Round 5)
    • 2014: Jake Matthews (Round 1), Mike Evans (Round 1), Johnny Manziel (Round 1)
    • 2013: Luke Joeckel (Round 1), Christine Michael (Round 2), Damontre Moore (Round 3), Sean Porter (Round 4), Ryan Swope (Round 6)
  • Postseason Ranking
    • 2015: NR
    • 2014: NR
    • 2013: No. 18
  • Conference Prestige: A+
  • All-Time Program Prestige: B+
  • Coaching Prestige: B-

Positives

No one in the state has recruited as well or sent more high-profile players to the NFL in the last three seasons. The Aggies also are the only program in the state to produce a Heisman Trophy winner in the last four years. Because of the move to the SEC, the Aggies have also made significant on-campus upgrades. The football facilities in College Station rank among the best in the nation, and the fan base is as rabid as they come, necessitating a recent expansion of an already massive Kyle Field.

Negatives

While the Aggies have fielded arguably the most talented team in the state during the last three years, they have largely underachieved. Despite spending time in the top 10 in each of the last five years, Texas A&M has finished the last two seasons unranked. Also, the Aggies haven’t posted a winning record in conference play since Manziel’s Heisman-winning campaign in 2012.

Head coach Kevin Sumlin has landed seven five-star recruits in the last four seasons, but two have transferred (Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray). Ricky Seals-Jones has yet to develop into a dominant receiver, and Speedy Noil took a huge step back in 2015 after a stellar true freshman season the previous year.

Finally, it was former coach Mike Sherman – not Sumlin – that recruited each of the five first-rounders that have come out of College Station in the last three drafts.

Outlook

In 2012, Texas A&M took a huge step forward as a program. The R.C. Slocum era came to a close in 2002 following a string of underachieving teams, but the Aggies suffered even more volatile up-and-down results under Dennis Franchione and Sherman.

Once the decision-makers in College Station decided to leave the Big 12 for the SEC and hired Kevin Sumlin, the Aggies became the hottest program in the state of Texas. Sumlin promptly led the Aggies to an 11-2 record, a No. 5 final ranking in the AP Top 25, and quarterback Johnny Manziel became the first freshman to win the Heisman Trophy. At that point, A&M was unquestionably the state’s best college football program.

However, the Aggies couldn’t hold on to the top spot. Despite three consecutive winning seasons, Texas A&M has not taken the next step toward legitimate SEC championship or national title contention. And, during that time period, another program jumped to the front of the pack.

1. Baylor Bears

  • Record
    • 2015: 10-3 (6-3)
    • 2014: 11-2 (8-1)
    • 2013: 11-2 (8-1)
  • Championships
    • 2015: None
    • 2014: Big 12 Co-Champions
    • 2013: Big 12 Champions
  • Recruiting Rankings
    • 2016: No. 17 nationally, No. 2 in the Big 12
    • 2015: No. 36, No. 5
    • 2014: No. 26, No. 3
  • NFL Draft
    • 2015: Bryce Petty (Round 4), Bryce Hager (Round 7)
    • 2014: Cyril Richardson (Round 5), Lache Seastrunk (Round 6), Demetri Goodson (Round 6), Ahmad Dixon (Round 7), Tevin Reese (Round 7)
    • 2013: Terrance Williams (Round 3)
  • Postseason Ranking
    • 2015: No. 13
    • 2014: No. 7
    • 2013: No. 13
  • Conference Prestige: B+
  • All-Time Program Prestige: C
  • Coaching Prestige: A

Positives

The biggest thing Baylor has going for it is its explosive offense under head coach Art Briles. In the last three seasons – the primary period our criteria sets out to measure — the Bears have posted the highest scoring offense in the country (49.5 points per game). In fact, Baylor has led the nation in scoring in each of the last three seasons. In 2011, Robert Griffin III became the first player in Baylor history to win the Heisman and the first for a Texas program since Ricky Williams in 1998.

As a result, Baylor has emerged from the shadows to become one of the nation’s premier programs. The Bears are the only team in the state of Texas to finish each of the last three seasons in the final AP Top 25, or win 10 games in each season for three years running. Baylor also is the only program in the state to earn at least a share of two conference championships during that same period.

A new stadium is a nice feature for the program as well.

Negatives

In terms of long-time program prestige, Baylor cannot compete with Texas or Texas A&M. The Bears likely would rank behind TCU, Texas Tech, Houston and SMU on an all-time list.

And, while recruiting is trending up, the Bears still are a distant third to Texas A&M and Texas in overall talent rankings. The Bears also are the only team ranked in our top four to not produce a first-round draft pick in each of the last three drafts (though that is likely to change in 2016 because of explosive wide receiver Corey Coleman).

Outlook

It seems very strange to say it because of their history, but right now, the Baylor Bears have the best college football program in the state of Texas. Overall, many factors combine to make Baylor one of the fastest-rising programs in the entire nation. Recent on-field results, flashy uniforms and improving facilities have helped the Bears improve their recruiting as well, which will play a big role in whether or not Baylor eventually makes it over the hump and wins a national championship.

And that’s the biggest thing that makes Baylor the top program in the state of Texas: The Bears are the closest team in the Lone Star State to winning a national title. Bovada oddsmakers have listed the Bears at +1600 to win the 2017 College Football Playoff, the seventh-best odds in the country. TCU ranks No. 2 in the state and in a tie for No. 13 nationally at +3300, while Houston (+5000), Texas A&M (+6600) and Texas (+10000) follow.