For the 2nd time in 4 seasons, Kentucky finds itself ending the season in the Citrus Bowl. Unlike the 2018 game, the Wildcats will enter this year’s matchup with Iowa as a mild favorite. Part of the reason is a newfound respect for Mark Stoops’ work in building up a program. And part is that Iowa genuinely doesn’t stack up particularly well against the Wildcats. Here are 5 reasons that the Cats will handle the Hawkeyes to claim a 10th win and another Citrus Bowl victory.

1. Iowa doesn’t have the high-octane offense to mess with UK’s defense

Kentucky’s defense was virtually untouchable early in the season, but on the heels of a competitive loss to Georgia, the Wildcats struggled in losses to Mississippi State and Tennessee. The common thread is that Kentucky’s defense struggles with big-play-heavy downfield passing games, but not so much with grinders. Kentucky lost to the No. 15, 20 and 26 teams in the nation in total offense. Iowa is No. 123. Teams that had 400 yards against UK went 3-1 (the loss being Kentucky’s one-sided win over LSU in which the Tigers reached 408 yards in garbage time). Teams with fewer than 400 yards went 0-8. Iowa, meanwhile, reached 400 yards once all season, in a 30-7 win over Kent State.

2. The loss of Tyler Goodson further dooms Iowa

The Hawkeyes’ best chance is to grind out an ugly, low-scoring kind of game with Kentucky. Much of that hope went out the window with the news that running back Tyler Goodson is opting out of the Citrus Bowl. Goodson rushed for 1,151 of Iowa’s 1,558 yards on the season. The rest of the Hawkeyes’ rushers managed 1.8 yards per carry. Sure, Iowa didn’t have much firepower offensively, anyway. But Iowa without Goodson is really hamstrung.

3. Kentucky’s turnover problems have eased

Early in the season, Kentucky struggled horribly with turnovers. The Wildcats gave up the football 22 times, which gives Iowa some hope — particularly when combined with the Hawkeyes’ skills at forcing turnovers. Iowa forced 30 turnovers this season, including 24 interceptions. But here’s the thing: Since an awful performance from Will Levis against Mississippi State, Kentucky has toned down its turnover problems. In the final 4 games of the season, UK had 6 turnovers, including just 3 interceptions. While a turnover or 2 wouldn’t make life easier for UK, Iowa’s best chance is to reach a significant positive turnover margin. The Hawkeyes are 1-2 with a negative turnover margin and 4-0 with a +3 or better. The good news for Kentucky is that after starting the season going -3 in 2 of its first 4 games, it hasn’t had a performance like that since the Mississippi State game.

4. Kentucky’s running game will create trouble for Iowa

The Hawkeyes win games by stopping offenses — particularly on the ground. Iowa was 9-1 when holding opponents to fewer than 130 yards rushing but just 1-2 when allowing 130. Meanwhile, Kentucky reached 130 rushing yards in 9 of its 12 games. Only in the losses to Georgia and Mississippi State and a win over FCS Chattanooga did the Wildcats fail to reach that mark — and they hit 200 yards on the ground 7 times. The few times UK has struggled on the ground, it has been a matter of not using Chris Rodriguez Jr. enough. In UK’s 3 losses, Rodriguez averaged 12.3 carries per game and just 50 rushing yards. In Kentucky’s 9 wins, he had 18.7 carries per game and 125 rushing yards. In what could be his final game in Lexington, Rodriguez will be featured early and often, and that has rarely failed to pay dividends for the Wildcats.

5. Winning one for the coach

Motivation is a card that’s generally overplayed. It’s not like teams need an extra bit of bulletin board material or a particularly heated recruiting rivalry to want to win. That said, this game is special for Stoops. He’s going against his alma mater, and he’s doing so after UK and athletic director Mitch Barnhart re-affirmed their commitment to Stoops and to continuing the uptick in facilities and program development. This isn’t to claim that this game lacks meaning for Iowa or Kirk Ferentz. But there is more in play for this bowl game than just a 10th win or a chance to knock off another Big Ten opponent. Playing his old school has to be a “completing the circle” kind of moment for a coach who inherited a 2-10 Kentucky team that belonged in the Ohio Valley Conference and not the Southeastern. Stoops and his players will hold nothing back, and whether emphasized by the head coach or not, Kentucky’s players will definitely want to nab the particularly meaningful win for their head coach.