Southern-LSU: Final thoughts and a prediction

LSU has never played cross-town rival Southern before.

So the game between the FCS Jaguars and the FBS Tigers — whose campuses are separated by about 10 miles — on Saturday night in Tiger Stadium is a big deal in Baton Rouge.

Southern is 1-0 under 1st-year coach Eric Dooley, and LSU is 0-1 under 1st-year head coach Brian Kelly.

But the talent disparity between the 2 programs suggests that the Tigers should not only win, but dominate. So aside from the historic nature of the backup — and what should be one heck of a halftime show from the respective bands — the opponent doesn’t really matter to LSU.

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Dooley’s team won its opener, 86-0, against NAIA Florida Memorial last Saturday. And 24 hours later, Kelly’s team lost to Florida State, 24-23, in the Caesars Superdome.

“The ball didn’t bounce their way,” Dooley said, “but that has nothing to do with the type of team that they have.”

The question Tigers fans have been asking is, “Just what type of team do we have?”

That question won’t start to be answered as much by the final score against the Jaguars as it will be by the way LSU reacts to a series of challenges in the wake of the loss to Florida State.

The 1st challenge has a lot to do with blocking.

The Tigers’ offensive line had a lot of trouble blocking the Seminoles’ defense. FSU penetrated the left side enough to block a 30-yard field goal and an extra point that would have sent the game into overtime.

The offensive line should be able to do a better job of blocking the smaller, less talented Southern front. If so, Jayden Daniels should be able to leave most of the rushing to the running backs after being the lone consistent threat against FSU.

And that should allow Daniels to focus on the passing game — primarily, getting Kayshon Boutte untracked after he had just 2 catches for 20 yards in the opener. Kelly would like to see LSU run the ball consistently well from the get-go, creating favorable down-and-distances that enable Daniels and the receivers to flourish.

Kelly said this week that Boutte is the offensive player that he’s “least concerned about.” If the coach’s confidence in Boutte is well placed, then Boutte should make a series of impact plays against the Jaguars.

The most pressing issue for the Tigers’ defense is adapting to the loss of star tackle Maason Smith, who suffered a season-ending knee injury on the 1st defensive series against the Seminoles.

Mekhi Wingo is a good player, but he’s not Smith, and he won’t be asked to solely take over Smith’s reps. Kelly admitted that defensive coordinator Matt House might have to get “creative” with personnel in Smith’s absence.

The Tigers had a really hard time getting FSU quarterback Jordan Travis on the ground. He made them pay with a series of 3rd-down conversions that did as much to determine the outcome as anything.

Kelly is looking for the Tigers — especially, but not exclusively, the linebackers — to tackle better.

They’ll try to do so while another one of their top defenders — end Ali Gaye — is sidelined for the first half as continued punishment for the targeting hit that he put on Travis, which led to Gaye’s ejection.

As for the special teams, the blocked kicks weren’t the only major breakdowns. Malik Nabers muffed 2 punts, and even though neither produced points for the Seminoles, they did impact field position and time.

They also led to Kelly likely replacing Nabers as his punt returner. The coach said he considered replacing Nabers after the 1st muff because “I wanted to show confidence in him.”

But Kelly no longer has confidence in the super-talented wide receiver as a punt returner.

Kelly said the Tigers have to play “LSU football” for 60 minutes.

Against FSU, the Tigers used an uneven drive to kick a field goal on the game’s 1st possession. Then they were mostly back on their heels, falling behind 17-3 and 24-10, before a frenetic comeback in the final half of the 4th quarter.

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LSU’s goal is to be inhospitable to their fellow Baton Rouge team and dominate from beginning to end — no matter how deep Kelly might choose to go into the depth chart.

The prediction

LSU will start fast and take command early. Southern will make a few plays on both sides of the ball and compete for a full 60 minutes.

Things will get a bit sloppy late as Kelly gives experience to a lot of young players, but the Tigers will get what they want to build some confidence before opening SEC play a week later against Mississippi State: LSU 53, Southern 6.