Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Kentucky

The Fearless Prediction took a huge risk last week in picking Tennessee to beat UT-Martin, but hey, we aren’t the Fearless Prediction for nothing. That said, we won’t rest on our laurels. It’s time to make another correct call this week when the 3rd-ranked Vols host 19th-ranked Kentucky.

It’ll be another raucous, sold-out crowd at Neyland Stadium. It’s another huge game that has postseason implications. As opposed to the Vols’ wins over then-ranked foes Pittsburgh, Florida, LSU and Alabama, this game will kick off under the lights. Expect a 2021 Ole Miss kind of atmosphere, hopefully without the mustard bottle.

Tennessee’s offense is absurdly efficient. Despite being ranked 122nd in the country in time of possession, the Vols are No. 1 in both points per game at 50.1 and yardage per game with 571.1. Hendon Hooker, Jalin Hyatt, Bru McCoy, Jaylen Wright … UT has skill players galore who seemingly can score at will. No one has figured out a way to slow them down.

The UK defense is pretty good, ranked 14th in the country and allowing 295.4 yards per game. Linebacker DeAndre Square leads the Cats in tackles with 52. But they haven’t faced an opponent nearly as good as this UT offense. This will be by far their toughest test of the season.

Kentucky’s quarterback isn’t getting Heisman consideration these days like Hooker, but Will Levis does have the attention of NFL scouts. Levis is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for an average of 272.5 yards per game. He will go down as one of the best signal-callers in the history of the Wildcats’ program, and he could cement his UK legacy by leading his team to an upset of the Volunteers.

Fortunately for Levis, he gets to face a decimated Tennessee secondary that allows 329.7 passing yards per game. Only Ohio gives up more.

The Cats’ running game got a huge boost with the return of Chris Rodriguez Jr. from suspension. In 3 games, he has collected 395 rushing yards and 3 scores. Tennessee’s rushing defense is ranked 8th in the country, so this will be a fun battle to watch. Linebacker Aaron Beasley has taken a step up this season with 39 tackles and 4 tackles for a loss, 2nd on the Vols in both categories.

Older readers will remember Dean Smith’s “four corners,” before there was a shot clock in college basketball. North Carolina would try to take the air out of the ball, limit possessions and bleed the clock.

That’s what Kentucky would love to do on Saturday night.

While Tennessee runs its offense at Usain Bolt-like speed, Kentucky prefers a more deliberate approach. The Vols are ranked 5th in the nation with 2.88 plays per minute. The Wildcats are ranked 131st with 1.87. Remember, there are 131 teams in FBS.

UT has won 34 of its past 37 meetings with UK. Even during the Vols’ down times, they almost always find a way to beat Kentucky. Case in point: the 2021 game in Lexington. UK picked up 151 more yards than the Vols, and UT held the football for fewer than 14 minutes. But Tennessee won 45-42, its 1st win over a nationally ranked opponent in 3 years. That nationally ranked opponent in 2018? Kentucky, obviously.

The Wildcats would like nothing better than to put a big dent in Tennessee’s postseason aspirations. Next week, Tennessee takes on Georgia in what is shaping up to be the de facto SEC East title game. The Vols haven’t played in the SEC Championship Game in 15 years, and a win in Athens would almost certainly get them to Atlanta. The fans know it, the players know it, the coaches know it.

With so much at stake, I can’t see Tennessee looking past Kentucky.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 45, Kentucky 31