What is your team’s win probability this week? Below is a list of every SEC team’s win probability for Week 14, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

  • Alabama (68.7 percent): It’s no surprise to see the nation’s No. 1 team favored so heavily heading into this week’s Iron Bowl. After all, Alabama is playing its best football of the season at just the right time, while Auburn has lost each of its last two SEC games. But considering the way last year’s game ended, the FPI could give Alabama a 100 percent win probability and it would still meaning nothing. These teams take on new identities when it comes to the Iron Bowl, and anyone who thinks they know what to expect Saturday is simply guessing.
  • Arkansas (59.0 percent): The Razorbacks are the hottest team in the SEC, and the FPI has clearly recognized that by awarding them a 59 percent win probability for Friday’s showdown with Missouri. However, Missouri has also been red-hot in recent weeks, even if their wins haven’t appeared as impressive as Arkansas’. In a shortened holiday week it’s tough to know what to expect from either team, but if Arkansas plays the way it has the last two week’s it can take down any team in America, including Mizzou.
  • Auburn (31.3 percent): The Tigers are heading in the wrong direction late in the season, but they’ll also be riding the momentum of last year’s win over Alabama when they take the field Saturday night. Again, based on how both teams have played in recent weeks the FPI’s win probabilities for both teams appear justifiable, but in a rivalry like this one all we really know is that we know nothing.
  • Florida (27.2 percent): The Gators deserve such a low win probability for Saturday’s game due to their struggles this season coupled with Florida State’s undefeated record. However, Florida showed in a win over Georgia it is good enough to beat top 10 teams, and Florida State has proven time and time again it is capable of letting underwhelming opponents hang around late into games. The FPI got this win probability right, but that doesn’t mean Florida won’t make this game interesting in Will Muschamp’s final game with the Gators.
  • Georgia (80.1 percent): The Dawgs have owned this rivalry since 2001, winning 12 of 13 meetings in that span including a 41-34 double overtime victory last season. Georgia is red-hot of late and Nick Chubb has been as impressive as any player in the SEC. Georgia Tech has had a nice season of its own in winning the ACC Coastal Division crown, and its triple-option attack is unorthodox enough to beat any team on any given Saturday. Nevertheless, Georgia is a top 10 team playing its best football in recent weeks, and its 80 percent win probability is justified.
  • Kentucky (22.3 percent): Kentucky has lost three straight Governor’s Cup showdowns to Louisville, and it hasn’t won a game on the road since Week 1 of 2010. None of that is a good sign for UK, and all of it justifies the Wildcats’ 22 percent win probability on Saturday. Louisville is the more talented team and the hotter team coming off last week’s win over Notre Dame, and even without starting quarterback Will Gardner there’s no reason to believe the Cards can’t take care of business on Saturday. Kentucky will need its best performance of the season to steal a win in this one.
  • Mississippi (58.1 percent): Ole Miss has lost four of the last five Egg Bowls since 2009 and it has lost three straight games in SEC play entering this weekend’s showdown with Mississippi State. However, none of that deterred the FPI from giving Ole Miss a 58 percent win probability this weekend. Ole Miss has the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense but it has also allowed 30 points in its last two SEC games, indicating a negative trend MSU will hope to take advantage of. If the defense can rise to the task and Bo Wallace can protect the football the Rebels can make the FPI look like a genius on Saturday.
  • Mississippi State (41.9 percent): Yes, you’re reading that right. Mississippi State is No. 4 in the nation, hasn’t lost outside the top 5 all season, enters this game fresh off a 51-0 victory in conference play yet is still considered an underdog in Saturday’s Egg Bowl by the FPI. It doesn’t help that MSU is playing on the road this weekend, but it is surprising to see how much respect the FPI has for the Rebels at this juncture of the season.
  • Missouri (41.0 percent): The Tigers keep on winning, but we all keep picking against them. The FPI isn’t necessarily wrong for picking Arkansas over Missouri considering how well the Razorbacks have played the last two weeks, but it feels like this game should be considered more of a toss-up than it is based on these win probabilities.
  • South Carolina (37.8 percent): The Gamecocks have beaten Clemson for five straight years, but this year it’s the Tigers who have the more talented team, and the FPI has recognized that. South Carolina is certainly not helpless in this matchup, but it’ll need to find a way to combat a talented Clemson defense and slow down Deshaun Watson to have a chance at victory. That’s all much easier said than done.
  • Tennessee (86.3 percent): Tennessee may have lost its last two meetings with Vanderbilt, and it may be entering this week’s game off its first loss since naming Joshua Dobbs the starting quarterback, but UT’s 86 percent win probability seems a bit low. Dobbs has been electric since taking over the offense, and if he can do even half of what Dak Prescott did to the Dores last week the Vols should win this game easily.
  • Vanderbilt (13.7 percent): If anything, it’s a surprise Vandy’s win probability isn’t lower based on how helpless the Commodores have looked in SEC play this year. Tennessee may have cooled off in last week’s loss, but Vanderbilt lost 51-0 last week. What’s below cooling off? Freezing to death? If so, Vandy froze to death in October. The FPI is being generous on this one.

NOTE: LSU defeated Texas A&M 23-17 on Thursday night to begin Week 14 in the SEC.