Editor’s note: Our 14-day annual Crystal Ball series starts with Alabama and continues all week with the SEC West. Coming Tuesday: Arkansas.

It’s still a bit difficult to comprehend 44-16.

Sure, anyone can go back and say that Alabama wasn’t a perfect team despite its record and historically dominant regular season. In hindsight, we can look back at Clemson’s run and see why it was such an unstoppable force when Part IV of the rivalry rolled round.

But 44-16? Against Nick Saban’s team? Nobody saw that coming. Losing is one thing. Getting completely humiliated on college football’s biggest stage is another. Quite frankly, it’s still a bit of a mystery how Alabama was dominated like it had never been dominated under Saban.

Whether it’s true or not, Alabama’s 2019 narrative will be formed around that game. Look vulnerable early and it’s a hangover. Come out like gangbusters and it’s a revenge tour. That was going to be Alabama’s 2019 reality the moment it stepped off the Levi’s Stadium field in a daze.

So now, we get to figure out what lies next. Was that game a sign that Alabama’s fading from the national landscape and now we’re all living in Clemson’s world? Or was it just a horrific night for a team that has been to 4 consecutive national championships and is ready to make it 5 in a row?

Let’s dig into that.

2018 record: 14-1 (8-0), lost in National Championship Game

It’ll still be a “don’t show up late” offense

I suppose Alabama would prefer if Josh Jacobs and Damien Harris were back, and I suppose losing a tackle like Jonah Williams and a 4-year starter like Ross Pierschbacher isn’t ideal. But still. What Alabama returns on offense is absurd.

Returning Tua Tagovailoa with leading receivers Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith seems unfair. We’ll have reminders of that early and often. Like last year, I expect plenty of long touchdown passes from the jump. It’ll still be the type of offense that has a 7-0 lead before fans are in their seats.

I do see the passing game taking a slight step back statistically just because I believe Saban wants more of a running identity with a pair of fresh, capable backs in Najee Harris and Trey Sanders. I also believe Saban wants to make sure Tagovailoa isn’t exposing himself on too many deep shots.

In a strange twist of events, it wouldn’t surprise me to see teams daring Alabama to run the ball with all the concern on Tagovailoa and those receivers. But what that could likely yield is more home-run plays out of the backfield and perhaps a more balanced attack than last year when it seemed like the offense went as Tagovailoa went.

Will the coaching staff turnover matter?

This to me is the biggest question about Alabama’s 2019 season. Mike Locksley, Dan Enos, Josh Gattis and Brent Key all played major roles with that all-time great offense last year. It was the perfect example of a coaching staff figuring out how to maximize talent. That’s a strange thing to say with Alabama, but it really did tell the story of that 2018 group.

How will Steve Sarkisian do that? It’s not fair to use the 2016 College Football Playoff National Championship as the only barometer, though his last 2 years as the Atlanta Falcons’ offensive coordinator didn’t exactly instill confidence in Alabama fans.

Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

But the good thing is that Sarkisian and Tagovailoa have an established relationship. The offense won’t fall entirely on Sarkisian, either. New receivers coach Holmon Wiggins has big shoes to fill, as does former Mississippi State running backs coach Charles Huff. Both have been part of high-powered units in the past couple years. Alabama should have a motivated Kyle Flood coaching the offensive line, too. That unit’s short-yardage struggles came out in the title game.

It’s interesting because the entire post-title game discussion was about how Clemson’s coaching staff continuity was the difference. Whether that was responsible for a 28-point difference between the 2 teams, I don’t know, but nobody can argue that the Tigers were better prepared. That was at the root of Saban’s frustration in the beginning of the offseason, and it was what contributed to even more staff turnover.

What’s the last thing Alabama fans want in 2019?? To be having the same discussion about coaching staff turnover after another Playoff blowout.

Saban after a title game loss is ______.

Scary.

That’s why the “revenge tour” narrative seems like it’ll hold up. Since arriving in the SEC in 2000, Saban returned from a bowl loss 5 times. He won national titles in 4 of those seasons, including twice in the Playoff era.

In those revenge seasons, Saban’s teams are 66-5 overall, 36-4 vs. the SEC and 29-4 vs. Top 25 teams. Here’s some bold analysis — that’s really good.

In postseason games that Saban’s teams lost by 28 points, his numbers are a bit different. By “different,” I mean “nonexistent.” Is it different motivating a team after a loss like that as opposed to losing a nail-biter like 2016? I don’t know. I’m not even sure if Saban knew the answer to that until this offseason.

I’m sure we’ll all find out that answer throughout the course of 2019.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Duke (W) (in Atlanta)

Imagine betting against Saban in an opener. Now imagine betting against Saban in an opener against Duke. Even though this game is being played in Atlanta, this is essentially a home game for Alabama. This will be the Crimson Tide’s fourth game in Mercedes-Benz Stadium since the start of 2017, and dare I say, it’ll be the most lopsided one yet.

Week 2: vs. New Mexico State (W)

I cannot wait to watch the Crimson Tide take on the Aggies. The only problem? I’m not talking about the New Mexico State Aggies.

Week 3: at South Carolina (W)

I’m here for all of the 2010 flashbacks. There will be plenty of them, but nearly a decade removed from that matchup, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which the Gamecocks stack up well in the trenches. This time, Alabama won’t be coming off 2 consecutive games against ranked opponents, and Steve Spurrier won’t be on those sidelines dialing up magic with Stephen Garcia. Alabama’s SEC East winning streak, which dates to that 2010 stunner, continues in Columbia.

Week 4: vs. Southern Miss (W)

Don’t sleep on the Golden Eagles. Just ask Auburn about how pesky they are. They also return the highest percentage of offensive production of any team in America. Is that enough nice things to say about a team who will probably be blown out by the middle of the second quarter?

Week 5: vs. Ole Miss (W)

I was in Oxford last year when Jordan Ta’amu and D.K. Metcalf delivered the ultimate first-round uppercut with that 75-yard bomb on the first play from scrimmage. That place was electric … and then 62 unanswered happened. Maybe the Rebels’ defense will have a better chance at slowing Alabama down a touch, but I can’t see this one being close.

Week 6: Bye

Week 7: at Texas A&M (W)

This has “trendy upset pick” written all over it. I actually think the Aggies played pretty well against Alabama the past couple years. They hung tough in the trenches, which is obviously where Alabama usually has a decisive advantage. The issue is that as improved as Mike Elko’s defense was, they still figure to be somewhat vulnerable against the pass. Last I checked, Tagovailoa and Co. are pretty good at that. Believe it or not, Alabama does have 4 post-bye week losses in the Saban era, but only one in the past 7 seasons.

  • 2007: L 41-34 vs. No. 3 LSU
  • 2008: W 24-20 vs. Ole Miss
  • 2009: W 24-15 vs. No. 9 LSU
  • 2010: L 24-21 at No. 10 LSU
  • 2011: L 9-6 vs. No. 1 LSU
  • 2012: W 42-10 at Mizzou
  • 2013: W 49-42 at No. 6 Texas A&M
  • 2013: W 38-17 vs. No. 10 LSU
  • 2014: L 23-17 at No. 11 Ole Miss
  • 2014: W 20-13 (OT) at No. 14 LSU
  • 2015: W 30-16 vs. No. 2 LSU
  • 2016: W 10-0 at No. 15 LSU
  • 2017: W 24-10 vs. No. 18 LSU
  • 2018: W 29-0 at No. 4 LSU

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar showing from A&M to the one we saw last year against Clemson, but the Alabama passing attack just proves to be too much.

Week 8: vs. Tennessee (W)

Jeremy Pruitt promised his team that he would recruit so that it wouldn’t get embarrassed like it did in last year’s matchup. I believe he believes that. But do I believe that? Nope. Not yet at least. Give it another year or 2 before we talk about a competitive game between these rivals.

Week 9: vs. Arkansas (W)

Chad Morris’ up-tempo offense actually played really well against Alabama last year. It’s not everyday that Saban allows 30-plus. (Clemson and Oklahoma were the only other 2 to manage that last year.) But with what I believe will be an improved Crimson Tide secondary, it’ll be tougher for the Hogs to get rolling. And even if they do, they’re still not equipped with the speed and talent necessary to slow down the Alabama offense.

Week 10: Bye

Week 11: vs. LSU (W)

The streak lives, but I don’t think LSU goes down as easy as it did last year. I think Joe Brady was hired with the main focus of being able to actually keep Alabama off-balanced for once. It wouldn’t surprise me if the “over” hit on this one with a pair of veteran quarterbacks with 2 weeks to prepare. This winds up being a 1-2 score game that pushes Tagovailoa on a day when he can’t get rolling against the LSU secondary, but a big drive late keeps Alabama unbeaten and extends the streak to 9 over LSU.

Week 12: at Mississippi State (W)

Coming off a mammoth win against LSU, a tricky showdown in Starkville awaits. In a raucous road venue — one that nearly witnessed MSU upset the Crimson Tide in 2017 — we see Alabama get put on upset alert with something like a 14-7 halftime score. But a vintage Tagovailoa second half puts the game away and clinches another trip to Atlanta.

Week 13: vs. Western Carolina (W)

The Catamounts haven’t been able to stay on the field with UNC in recent memory. Something tells the FCS squad will have some struggles against an Alabama team that’s unbeaten against non-top 15 foes since 2010.

Week 14: at Auburn (W)

This will be billed as a “revenge game” in some ways because of the last time these teams played at Jordan-Hare. But with entirely different stars, I don’t know if that’s the angle I’d choose. If Gus Malzahn still has his job, this could be a last-ditch effort to save it. It could also be a game in which Tagovailoa solidifies his Heisman bid. Whatever the case, it’s hard to picture a freshman quarterback leading the charge to end Alabama’s undefeated season. Even if a West title is locked up, obviously motivation won’t be lacking for the Crimson Tide.

2019 projection: 12-0 (8-0, 1st in SEC West)

Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

#RTR

Not to brag or anything, but I predicted that Alabama would have an undefeated regular season last year, too. Bold, I know. For my next bold take, I’ll tell you why Saban is one of the best coaches in the country.

In all seriousness, can you blame me? It’s extremely difficult to look at one spot in which Alabama could be vulnerable. I’d say the A&M contest is the best chance for an upset, but then I think about Saban’s dominance of his former assistants and I’m back to believing that nobody will have his number in 2019.

The one thing that worries me about Alabama’s national title odds is the way the schedule sets up. It’s extremely backloaded. There’s a decent chance that Alabama goes into November having won every game by 30-plus points without any major tests, much like last year. As we saw and heard from Alabama players, that gave them a bit of a false sense of overconfidence because mistakes weren’t magnified. It’s because of that reason that I’ll save my title game prediction for another time.

For now, though, give me Alabama to roll to yet another 12-0 regular season.