Alabama is stumbling to the finish line of the 2023-24 regular season, and is starting to look like a team to bet against this March.

After rising as high as No. 6 in KenPom’s rankings in early February, the Crimson Tide have now lost 3 of their last 4 games and have been eliminated from the outright regular season SEC title race. Alabama’s defense has completely collapsed over the past couple of weeks, as it has allowed more than 1.1 points per possession in 7 of its last 8 games.

Most recently, Alabama gave up 105 total points and 1.3 points per possession to Florida in a game it needed to win in order to have a shot at the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament. Instead, Nate Oats’ bunch lost for the 3rd time in their last 4 games.

Offense has been Alabama’s strength this season, but even that has slipped recently. The Crimson Tide posted offensive ratings of just 100.9 and 108.3 in losses to Tennessee and Florida over the past week. It’s just the second time all season that Alabama has failed to score at least 1.1 points per possession in back-to-back games.

Things look even more dire over a larger sample. According to BartTorvik, Alabama has been the No. 37 team in the country since Feb. 6. The Tide ranks 243rd nationally over that span in adjusted defensive efficiency rating.

Part of Alabama’s issue is that its schedule has toughened up over the last few weeks. After going 8-1 against a relatively soft slate of opponents in January, Alabama has faced NCAA Tournament hopefuls in 6 of its 9 games since the beginning of February.

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EvanMiya’s new relative ratings metric also points to a serious concern with Alabama’s profile — the Tide perform much better against weaker opposition than they do vs. teams of similar quality. That’s born out in Alabama’s record against Quad 1 opponents, which is just 4-9 so far this season. Alabama has 3 wins over teams currently ranked in the top 30 of the NET — No. 6 Auburn, No. 26 Florida and No. 30 Indiana State — and all of them came at home. On the other side of the coin, the Tide have lost to Clemson, Purdue, Creighton, Arizona, Tennessee (twice), Auburn, Kentucky and Florida within that group.

Alabama has also had difficulties covering the spread as an underdog this season. The Tide are just 2-6 against the number as a dog this season and are 1-7 straight up in those matchups. Things are also pretty dicey when Alabama is a favorite of 8 points or less — it is 4-3 straight up and against the spread in those situations this year.

Alabama has also struggled on the road all year. The Tide have just 2 wins away from home this season over teams who are currently ranked in the top 80 of the NET. Alabama has been one of the worst teams in the country this season away from Tuscaloosa, ranking 354th nationally (out of 362 teams) in Haslametric’s away-from-home rating.

Alabama’s weak defense, struggles away from home and disappointing performance all make Alabama a risky bet to make it beyond the Sweet 16. The Tide should be safe in their 1st-round matchup given their exceptional play vs. bad teams so far this season, but they could run into trouble as early as the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament if things don’t improve quickly.

The SEC Tournament could be another opportunity to fade Alabama. The Tide are amongst a group of 6 teams that are clustered together at the top of the SEC standings, so it’s unclear what seed Alabama will have at this point. But Alabama is likely to face another strong opponent as early as the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament, which could spell trouble for the Tide.

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