Alabama (24-11) faces Clemson (42-11) with a spot in the Final Four on the line.

The Crimson Tide are making just their second-ever program appearance in the Elite Eight, and they have a chance to make the program’s first-ever appearance in the Final Four with a win. Thursday’s 89-87 win over North Carolina featured a breakthrough defensive performance from Nate Oats’ group, which limited the Tar Heels to only 33 second-half points and came up with huge stops late in the game.

One more win and the Tide will make some history.

4 Alabama vs. 6 Clemson | 8:49 p.m. | TBS | Los Angeles, California

If Clemson’s 3-point defense magic is strong enough to take down this giant, maybe the Tigers can do the unthinkable.

After upsetting 2-seed Arizona in the Sweet 16, Clemson has made its first Elite Eight appearance since the 1979-80 season. The Tigers and Tide now both sit 1 win away from their program’s first Final Four. With Alabama’s supercharged offense (No. 4 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency), there was always a chance Nate Oats could get his group to this stage of the NCAA Tournament. Clemson, however, is very much a Cinderella.

While the Tigers did beat Alabama and South Carolina in the nonconference, they also had losses to Memphis (No. 76 KenPom), Miami (No. 96), Notre Dame (No. 117), and Georgia Tech (No. 122) in the regular season and went 1-and-done at the ACC Tournament with a loss to Boston College (No. 71).

Sure, Clemson played in a historically strong league, but the Tigers faced a top-50 team in ACC play 6 times and lost 4 of them.

There were signs a run could happen, but there were plenty of red flags as well.

And so far, the most consistent aspect of Clemson’s run to the Elite Eight has been the relative unsustainability of its 3-point defense.

New Mexico shot 20 percentage points under its season average from the 3-point line in the first round. Baylor — 1 of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, but the way — shot 14 percentage points under its season average in the second round. Arizona shot 19 percentage points below its season average in the Sweet 16.

The Tigers packed the paint and dared Arizona to take and make 3s. Arizona took plenty, but didn’t make nearly enough. Even after an interior presence helped the Wildcats claw back into the game late, open 3s were too seductive for Caleb Love (0-for-9), Pelle Larsson (1-6), and Kylan Boswell (1-5) to pass up.

And this will be where Saturday’s Elite Eight contest is decided. Alabama needs no sliver of daylight to prompt a 3. The Tide take 30 a game from long-range. That shot makes up 46% of Alabama’s overall shot diet, so daring the Tide to take and make 3s feels a bit like playing with fire.

After a poor shooting display in the second-round win over Grand Canyon, Alabama’s offense resurfaced against North Carolina. They hit 11 3s. Grant Nelson played the game of his life, so much so that star guard Mark Sears was waving off plays for him in the second half to keep feeding the big man with the hot hand.

Sears had scored at least 20 points in 8 consecutive games and in 19 of his last 21 entering Thursday’s game against the Tar Heels. He had only 18 on 14 shots against Carolina.

But there’s potential for a return to his flame-throwing ways against Clemson. He is incendiary from beyond the 3-point line. And he’s normally flanked by 4 other players who take at least 3 a game. Rylan Griffen made 5 of his 8 triples against Carolina. Latrell Wrightsell Jr.’s status is up in the air after missing the Sweet 16 game; his return to the floor would provide another boost.

Alabama will have 3s. Will the Tide make them? Prior to Thursday’s game, Alabama was shooting 29.6% on its 3s in the month of March.

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Before getting to the props, here are some advanced metrics from KenPom to consider:

Opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency

  • Alabama: 125.6 (4th)
  • Clemson: 117.7 (24th)

Opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency

  • Alabama: 102.5 (102nd)
  • Clemson: 98.0 (32nd)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

  • Alabama: 72.8 possessions (9th)
  • Clemson: 66.4 possessions (257th)

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With that, here are 3 player props for the game:

Clemson G Chase Hunter over 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-122 via FanDuel)

In the NCAA Tournament, Hunter is averaging 19.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 5.7 assists. This feels fairly straightforward. He and PJ Hall (14 per game) have been the driving force for Clemson to this point in the postseason, and there’s no reason for that to change in the Elite Eight against a defense that, while improved, just gave up 87 points.

Alabama G Aaron Estrada over 1.5 3-pointers (+140 via DraftKings)

Estrada has been wayward beyond the 3-point line in recent weeks but has continued to find ways to put the ball in the basket for the Crimson Tide. He had 19 points in the win over North Carolina, he had 13 against Charleston, and he had 17 in the SEC Tournament game against Florida. In his last 5 games, he’s 4-for-22 from 3. I think he knocks down multiple against the Tigers in a breakthrough performance.

Alabama G Mark Sears over 22.5 points (+115 via DraftKings)

Sears took more of a backseat to Grant Nelson late against Carolina. Nelson was rolling, Alabama had something that was working, and Sears was the perfect teammate. He’ll once again get his opportunity to shine against Clemson. Remember, Sears had 30 in the first round and 26 in the second round.