Alabama cruised past 13-seed Charleston in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Then it ground out a 72-61 win over 12-seed Grand Canyon in the second round. Now, the Tide get the No. 1 seed in the West Region with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line.

Nate Oats has taken the Tide to Sweet 16s in 3 of their last 4 seasons. The previous 2 appearances ended in defeat.

1 North Carolina vs. 4 Alabama | 9:39 p.m. | CBS | Los Angeles, California

In November 2022, Alabama beat North Carolina in quadruple overtime, 103-101, at the Phil Knight Invitational in Portland, Oregon. It was the kind of performance that solidified the Tide as a force to be reckoned with that season. Carolina was ranked No. 1 in the country still. Brandon Miller struggled from the field, but Mark Sears picked up the slack with a 24-point, 5-assist performance. He made 7 of his 11 3-pointers that day. And, perhaps more importantly, Alabama limited RJ Davis and Caleb Love to 21-for-60 from the field.

Love took 36 shots, making 13 of them. Davis took 24 shots. Armando Bacot took 12 in 39 minutes. Leaky Black took 8 in 54 minutes.

Alabama was content to let the gunners fire away. Yes, Love scored 34 points. But he took 36 shots. 

Love is gone. Miller has moved on as well. The Alabama that meets Carolina on Thursday night in Los Angeles will look different, as will the Carolina team it faces. Last year’s group played at the same break-neck pace, but it was fueled by its NCAA-leading defense.

Perhaps last year’s meeting can serve as some inspiration. Alabama had a week to prepare and tape to pull from. If ever there was going to be a breakthrough defensive performance, this would be the perfect time.

And if that’s the route Thursday night’s contest takes, Alabama got its feet wet last Sunday in the 72-61 win over Grand Canyon. Coach Nate Oats likened it to a rugby game. “I like the fact that our guys matched their physicality,” he said this week. But in the slugfest, Alabama produced its fewest points in a game since Jan. 20.

The Tide shot 37% from the field — the poorest in a game since Dec. 20. Their 8-for-40 showing from 3 was the third-worst of the season.

“We’ve got to get our offense back, we know that. We’re not going to be able to hold Carolina to 60 points,” Oats said. “That’s not really who we are, and that’s definitely not who they are.

“We’re going to have to get an offense that’s clicking like the No. 1 offense in the country in order to have a chance to win this game. So we’ve made that point. We’re putting a little more time in on our offensive side, trying to figure out how to attack them.”

North Carolina has savvy guards and statistically the best rebounding big in program history. The roster is one of the most experienced in the country this season. And that has translated to the defensive end of the floor. Carolina ranks sixth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. They have a top-20 shot defense, holding teams to a 46.5% effective field goal rate.

They don’t turn teams over, but they also don’t give up second-chance opportunities. And perhaps the best indicator of how tough it is to face this group? Opposing teams have the fifth-lowest assist rate in the country when they face Carolina.

You better hit your shots.

Armando Bacot (2.0 blocks per 40 minutes) provides solid rim protection. He’s a huge body down low and he doesn’t foul.

So where does Alabama choose to attack? When the Tide were running through the SEC in January and February, yes, the 3-pointers played a huge role in their success but lost in the splash was the fact Alabama was the best 2-point shooting team in the league. Per KenPom, they made 57% of their 2s in league play.

They have lived in transition all year, where 42% of their shots have come at the rim and 51% from 3. Does Alabama try to run downhill and challenge North Carolina to stop the avalanche? Or does it try to get a 3-ball going that has largely been cold since mid-February?

In fact, minus a handful of huge games in February, Alabama’s 3-point has actually been trending down for months:

  • November: 72/177 in 7 games (40.7%, 25.3 per game)
  • December: 77/205 in 6 games (37.6%, 34.2 per game)
  • January: 87/227 in 8 games (38.3% 28.4 per game)
  • February: 89/245 in 7 games (36.3%, 35 per game)
  • March: 50/169 in 6 games (29.6%, 28.2 per game)

The determining factor here will be pace. The Tar Heels are a strong rebounding team and they don’t turn the basketball over, but they also like to get out and run. Does Hubert Davis want to see an up-and-down game? Even though he should have confidence in Carolina’s ability to string some stops together, few teams can bury opponents in a free-flowing environment quite like Alabama can.

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Before getting to the props, here are some advanced metrics from KenPom to consider:

Opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency

  • Alabama: 125.1 (4th)
  • North Carolina: 119.2 (17th)

Opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency

  • Alabama: 102.3 (101st)
  • North Carolina: 93.1 (6th)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

  • Alabama: 73.0 possessions (8th)
  • North Carolina: 70.8 possessions (41st)

With that, here are 3 player props for the game:

Alabama G Mark Sears over 23.5 points (+115 via DraftKings)

It doesn’t feel like there’s a scoring total for this game that can be set high enough for Sears. Even when things slowed down and the points were tough to come by, he still managed 26 points. Sears took 11 triples against Grand Canyon and he scored 30 points with 11 free throws in the first-round win over Charleston. The volume is going to be there.

North Carolina G Elliot Cadeau over 11.5 points + assists (+100 via DraftKings)

The freshman guard has seen just 40 combined minutes in North Carolina’s first 2 NCAA Tournament games, and he has only made 2 of his 8 shots from the field. He was scoreless in the win over Wagner, then provided 6 points and 4 assists in the second-round victory over Michigan State. This feels like the kind of game where Carolina can afford to turn the youngster loose a bit more. When he has played at least 25 minutes this season (16 times), Cadeau has averaged 8.8 points and 5.8 assists.

North Carolina F Armando Bacot under 10.5 rebounds (+106 via FanDuel)

Bacot is a bully on the glass. But the double-double machine has been under 10.5 in 5 of his last 8 games, including against Michigan State in the second round. Alabama has some big bodies it can throw at Bacot and big guards that can rebound well. If the Tide want to push, they have to rebound well.