When Nick Saban was announced as Alabama’s new coach in 2007, there were two things that he wanted to establish early: a formidable defense and a punishing run game. Needless to say, he achieved both goals.

The point of this article is to determine whether the run game will be more or less successful than it was in 2016. Determining an answer is easier said than done — especially when you consider the success the Tide’s run game established last season.

With an average of 245 rushing yards per game, the Tide checked in at No. 12 nationally — No. 2 in the SEC behind in-state rival Auburn (271.3). When researching further, it also became clear that there won’t be any shortage of talent.

Alabama ran for 3,675 yards last season — the third-highest total in program history and most under Saban — and the offense returns its top 5 rushers.

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Sophomore quarterback Jalen Hurts played a significant role in the running success — he contributed 25.9 percent of the team’s rush yards (954) and 39.4 percent of the rushing touchdowns (13). He led the Tide in TD rushes and finished second in yards.

Is it logical or wise to expect similar production from a quarterback? Alabama’s run game will include a lot more success stories than Hurts, however.

Rushing yards per game (SEC rank): 245.0 (2)

Rushing TDs: 33 (T-1)

Yards/carry: 5.8 (2)

Rotation

At this point, trying to predict how the carry distribution will shake out is almost impossible due to abundance of quality runners available. Alabama has five or six running backs who could be the lead back if they were playing elsewhere.

  • Bo Scarbrough: 364 rushing yards and 6 TDs in the final three games of 2016
  • Damien Harris: Alabama’s only 1,000-yard rusher last season (1,037 yards)
  • Joshua Jacobs: The most balanced RB on the roster (567 yards rushing, 156 receiving)
  • Najee Harris: Most talented RB prospect to choose Alabama since Trent Richardson (No. 2 RB)
  • B.J. Emmons: Former 4-star (No. 35 overall prospect in the 2016 class)
  • Brian Robinson: 4-star prospect (No. 8 RB in 2017 class)

No running back topped 150 carries last season — Harris led the unit with 146, though Hurts led the team with 191 — and don’t expect that to change in 2017. When you add Hurts’ ability into the mix, the carries could be spread pretty thin.

Now, health could play a big factor. Scarbrough has suffered multiple injuries during his career — most recently a broken leg in the championship game. Harris and Emmons have also missed significant time — whether in the spring or last season — with injuries.

Chasing 1,000

Because there are so many mouths to feed, it will be tough for anybody to get to 1,000 yards this season. It’s not impossible, but Scarbrough, Harris, Jacobs and Najee Harris should all see significant action.

The last time Alabama failed to have a 1,000-yard rusher was in 2014, when Derrick Henry (990 yards) and T.J. Yeldon (979) shared the workload — on top of Blake Sims stealing carries.

Alabama will continue to field one of the most dominant run games in college football, but don’t expect to see any individual awards for the running backs.

Play-calling

New offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will bring a different approach to the offense. He won’t completely abandon the spread principles that created success under Lane Kiffin, but the offense should be more set up to grind clock when necessary.

Daboll’s history with the New England Patriots should provide Alabama with a play-caller who can adjust to the situation. Despite having arguably the greatest quarterback in NFL history (Tom Brady), the Patriots still had the No. 7 rushing offense in the NFL last season.

Daboll understands the importance of creating balance by establishing — and maintaining — a strong run game. In addition, the run game should benefit from Daboll’s preference on his selection of passing plays.

During the A-Day game, fans saw the offense open things up with several passes downfield. If used early in games, those deep shots will help loosen up defenses — preventing run focused defensive strategies such as stacked boxes.

Greatest concern

Like with the passing game, the success of the run game will fall on the shoulders of the offensive line. Jonah Williams has moved to left tackle after starting 15 games at right tackle in 2016, and the group lost Outland Trophy winner Cam Robinson and Korren Kirven.

Kirven struggled as a pass protector once he took over as the starting right guard for the final six games, but he was effective as a run blocker. Over the course of those six games, the Tide’s running game earned 991 yards — with a 6.6 yards per carry average — and scored 9 touchdowns.

Trying to replace the two starters — on top of Williams adjusting to the left side — could be more difficult than fans realize. The talent is there, so the staff just needs to try to find the right combination.

One stat that must improve

Alabama has to find success outside of Scarbrough and Hurts if they make it back to the postseason. During their two playoff games against Washington and Clemson, the Tide had little to no success with Damien Harris or Joshua Jacobs.

Scarbrough and Hurts accounted for 78.8 percent of the rushing yards and all of the rushing touchdowns (5). Harris finished with 14 rushes for 54 yards (3.9 ypc average) while Jacobs only got 2 carries — one going for 13 yards and the other for 3.

Scarbrough’s broken leg against Clemson threw the offense out of sync, and they couldn’t maintain their early success as a result. That must change if they want to finish the 2017 season being showered with crimson and white confetti while hoisting the national championship trophy.

Better or worse in 2017?

At this point, expecting the run game to be better would be a bit of a stretch. The Tide finished in the top two in rushing yards per game, yards per carry average and rushing touchdowns.

If anything, more of the same seems to be a reasonable and realistic expectation. It is possible that the distribution of carries could change — with the coaching staff wanting to limit the number of carries Hurts receives (he had a team-high 191, remember) — but the run game as a whole should continue to be highly effective.

Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Hurts won’t be asked to run much as as he did in 2016, but he will remain a huge factor in the run game. The offense will be set up with a more balanced attack — if Hurts’ ability as a passer develops as expected — which should only open things up for the run game to be successful.

Statistically, don’t expect a significant increase in rushing yards per game — or even rushing touchdowns. With that said, don’t be surprised if the Tide is more successful at establishing a consistent ground game — regardless of who is carrying the football.