Though the Alabama basketball team narrowly missed 2 marquee wins in Gainesville and Lexington to begin the SEC schedule, the NCAA Tournament is by no means out of reach. Unfortunately, marquee wins aren’t on sale at Walmart.

Things don’t get much easier Wednesday night, either, as the Crimson Tide (8-7) host No. 4-ranked, undefeated Auburn (15-0) at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa. It’s a game that pits the top 2 scoring offenses in the SEC and marks the first time Alabama head coach Nate Oats and Auburn’s Bruce Pearl have met in conference play.

Yes, this is the same season Alabama lost to Penn and let a 21-point lead slip through its fingers against Florida, but say it with me, “Alabama will make the NCAA Tournament.”

Crimson Tide fans suffering from the March Madness blues have reason to be optimistic, namely that Oats is directing one of the most improved teams in the country. Whether by design or if the nature of the game has dictated the change, Alabama has matured from the loosey-goosey frenetic pace of November to a more disciplined, sets-oriented (but still very fast) offense of early January.

If Oats has done anything well, he’s done a remarkable job with player development. Herbert Jones, a utility player who at times suffered from the turnover bug and spells of uncertainty, has become a Swiss Army knife. Against Kentucky, Jones posted a career-high 18 points and hauled down 5 offensive rebounds. Swingman John Petty is playing the best basketball of his career and point guard Kira Lewis continues to be one of the top players in the league. Three-point adoring freshman Jaden Shackleford has shown improvement and greater intent on defense, and James “Beetle” Bolden can provide an offensive spark at any moment.

With several players capable of making it from long distance, including 6-9 forward Alex Reese, Alabama shoots the 3 better than in recent years, but continues to struggle defending it. The Tide have attempted more 3s than any team in the conference (440) and rank 2nd in the SEC at 3-point percentage at 36.4 percent.

The second reason Bama should eke in the NCAA Tournament is its favorable schedule. Oats picked up his 1st conference win last week against Mississippi State, but his team needs to collect more in January and February if it wants to make the field of 68. The Crimson Tide are in the middle of enduring one of the toughest opening slates in the entire conference, but after Wednesday the schedule becomes a bit more palatable — well, at least in theory. Let’s just say the Crimson Tide squeak past Auburn and get the marquee win it needed to run its record to 9-7. Now, just for fun, let’s predict Alabama’s remaining games with the team’s record in parenthesis:

  • vs. Missouri – win (10-7)
  • at Vanderbilt — win (11-7)
  • vs. Kansas State — win (12-7)
  • at LSU – loss (12-8)
  • vs. Arkansas – win (13-8)
  • vs. Tennessee – win (14-8)
  • at Georgia – win (15-8)
  • at Auburn – loss (15-9)
  • vs. LSU – win (16-9)
  • vs. Texas A&M – win (17-9)
  • at Ole Miss – loss (17-10)
  • at Mississippi State – win (18-10)
  • vs. South Carolina – win (19-10)
  • vs. Vanderbilt – win (20-10)
  • at Missouri – loss (20-11).

That’s 20-11 with the SEC Tournament left to pad the résumé. Not bad, Joe Lunardi.

Of course, you have to expect Alabama will drop at least 1 game it isn’t supposed to lose, and teams like Missouri and South Carolina are fully capable of marching into Coleman Coliseum and stealing a win. But if Alabama continues to improve in conference play, this makes the Tide a very dangerous team come March.

Lastly, expect Oats and the Tide to tie up loose ends. As the top scoring offense in the SEC (83.2 ppg), Alabama has proven it can put the ball in the basket, but the team’s tournament hopes will rest on its ability to defend. Alabama ranks 335th in the country in scoring defense, allowing 78.7 points per game. In the 15 games under Oats, Alabama has allowed 100 points twice. That absolutely has to change.

The Tide also are shaky against the press and have to mitigate scoring runs similar to those in the Iowa State, Samford, and Florida games this season. Alabama is 9th in the SEC in free-throw percentage at .701, a number that needs to incline.

If the core of Petty, Lewis, and Jones can stay healthy, and role players contribute on both ends of the floor, Alabama not only has a chance of making the NCAA Tournament, the Tide could do a little bracket exploring this season.

And that’s something that hasn’t happened in quite a long time.