Final thoughts (and a prediction) for Alabama-Texas

All I have to say is, it’s about time.

To quote the great Ranch Wilder from the classic “Angels in the Outfield,” yeah, it’s about time that we saw Alabama play a Power 5 nonconference game on a college campus. That hasn’t happened since the Tide traveled to Happy Valley to take on Penn State in 2011. To the Tide’s credit, neutral-site games yielded ideal results.

Nine out of the past 10 years, Alabama kicked off the season with a neutral-site game against a Power 5 foe. The lone exception was 2020, which was supposed to pit Alabama against USC in Dallas, but COVID forced the Tide into an SEC-only schedule.

So basically, the decade of neutral-site Power 5 nonconference matchups is over. And boy, is it beginning a fun new era. Look at the future home-and-homes that the Tide have coming up the rest of the decade:

2022: at Texas
2023: vs. Texas
2024: at Wisconsin
2025: at Florida State
- vs. Wisconsin
2026: at West Virginia
- vs. Florida State
2027: vs. West Virginia
- at Ohio State
2028: vs. Ohio State
- at Oklahoma State
2029: at Notre Dame
- vs. Oklahoma State

Yes. More of this. Please.

And if you’re saying to yourself, well, why did it take so long for Alabama to start scheduling like this? It’s pretty easy. It’s all about the Playoff. In the 4-team Playoff, a team with 1 loss to give has less margin for error. With the expanded Playoff, which has long been suspected and is now happening by 2026 at the latest, teams can theoretically lose 2 or even 3 games and still make the field.

For Alabama, that’ll mean adding another marquee game to the home schedule. That’s a win for the home fans, and for the people who immediately flip on the TV when Alabama is fighting for its life in the second half of a game.

As for this Saturday’s first home-and-home showdown of Alabama’s new nonconference approach, I’d say the odds of a nail-biter second half aren’t great.

Then again, the last time the Tide went to the state of Texas to face off with a Nick Saban disciple as a 3-score favorite, A&M happened. Could history repeat itself on Saturday in Austin? My guess is no, but let’s break down why that could be the case.

Bryce Young vs. Quinn Ewers might not feel like it, but it’s a rare matchup

I dug into the former 5-star quarterbacks pretty in-depth the other day, but if you’re not a fan of clicking on other articles while you’re in the middle of one, here’s what you need to know. This could be “who’s now vs. who’s next.” With how decorated they were as recruits, it’s setting up for a unique matchup. Here are the only instances we’ve seen 2 of the top-10 rated quarterback recruits of the 21st century face off:

Nov. 29, 2008: Mark Sanchez vs. Jimmy Clausen
Sept. 12, 2009: Matt Barkley vs. Terrelle Pryor
Oct. 17, 2009: Matt Barkley vs. Jimmy Clausen
2019 Fiesta Bowl: Justin Fields vs. Trevor Lawrence
2020 Sugar Bowl: Justin Fields vs. Trevor Lawrence
Sept. 10, 2022: Bryce Young vs. Quinn Ewers

There will be no shortage of NFL eyeballs tuning into Saturday’s showdown. Of course, Young is on a different level than Ewers, who isn’t even draft-eligible until next season. Shoot, Ewers is starting against a Power 5 foe for the first time. Go figure that it happens to be against Saban.

Even if Ewers was a 2-year veteran, he has a tougher challenge than Young. Why? Alabama has Will Anderson Jr. and Dallas Turner (Chris Braswell is also becoming a star). Texas doesn’t. Texas has a defense that struggled mightily last year, which would suggest that the reigning Heisman Trophy winner will be right at home. Ewers’ comfortability will be tested, to say the least. And no, I’m not worried about Alabama’s lack of sacks against Utah State when it was clear the game plan was to avoid slow-developing plays.

What will Steve Sarkisian dial up for his young quarterback? That’s a good question. One would think he’d like to get the ball out of his hands quickly and they’ll try to get those high-percentage throws early. Utilizing the screen game with Bijan Robinson would make a lot of sense, too.

Whatever the case, Ewers should still have some moments in which you see why he’s tied for the highest-rated QB recruit ever. Of course, if he looks anything like Young, Texas fans would be ecstatic.

Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs will be darn good, too

Here’s an interesting question: Will Robinson and Gibbs be the All-American running backs at season’s end? I could absolutely see that playing out. Both are game-changing, 3-down backs for their respective offenses. I’d expect both to be featured heavily after neither was over-exerted in Week 1.

Robinson only played 32 snaps, just 10 of which were running plays. Granted, he still had 10 carries for 71 yards and a score, as well as 3 catches for 40 yards and a receiving score. That was extremely similar to Gibbs, who played 33 snaps in his Alabama debut, though just 9 of those were on run plays. He had 9 carries for 93 yards, which included a 58-yard scamper.

Jahmyr Gibbs with a 58-yard run ??pic.twitter.com/SBfgzCjHB1

— Alabama DieHards (@DiehardsAlabama) September 4, 2022

On the road, Alabama would love to get 1 or 2 of those home-run plays from Gibbs to quiet a raucous Texas crowd. That element was missing from the Tide last year. As great and as tough as Brian Robinson was, that really wasn’t his skill set. In 15 games, Alabama had just 2 rushing plays of 40 yards (No. 96 in FBS). In Game No. 1 vs. Utah State, Alabama already got 2, the other came on a rare long scamper from Young.

Gibbs is in a better spot than Robinson because the former figures to operate against plenty of drop-8 coverage. Robinson, on the other hand, might see a few loaded boxes with the Alabama defense focused on making Ewers do the heavy lifting.

Either way, it should be an awfully difficult day to play defense. Temperatures are expected to be in the high-80s for the 11 a.m. local time start. Cramping could be prevalent, and the team that operates effectively with tempo could set the tone early.

Is Nick Saban vs. his disciples still a thing or nah?

I’m old enough to remember when Saban never lost to a former assistant. Now, he has 2 blemishes on his résumé. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. He’s now only 25-2 against his former assistants, which begs the question:

Is the mystique gone?

Jimbo Fisher and Kirby Smart got over the hump with thrilling victories, but history still favors Saban. Only 4 of those 27 games were decided by 13 points or less. So roughly 15% of the time, a former assistant got to brag about being within 2 touchdowns of the GOAT.

In those 25 wins, Saban won by an average of 24.8 points. In the 1,620 minutes of football Saban had against his former assistants, he trailed for just 245 minutes and 39 seconds. That’s just 15% of the time. Keep in mind that also includes getting out to a 3-0 lead. Smart and Fisher are also the only Saban disciples who had a second-half lead against him.

Could Sarkisian join that club? It’s not likely. Lost in the shuffle of Saban finally losing to one of his former assistants in the A&M game was the fact that Alabama lost to a non-top-15 team for the first time since the 2010 South Carolina game. Texas is, despite what that 1 voter in the Coaches Poll might argue, unranked. That’s what happens when you’re a year removed from a 5-7 season.

(Well, unless you’re USC. Apparently going 4-8 is negated simply because Lincoln Riley is in town and he has a quarterback who averaged 6.4 yards per attempt in his starts vs. top-70 defenses as a true freshman. But I digress.)

Sarkisian brought a bunch of assistants over with him from Alabama when he took the Texas job. If the Longhorns keep it close, we’ll probably overvalue the inside knowledge that their staff had. And if they don’t, we’ll say “that’s why Saban disciples can’t beat him.”

Just something to keep in mind if this does end up staying close

Do I think Alabama deserves to be No. 1 right now? Absolutely. Georgia fans can disagree with it, but returning proven players like the Tide did from a runner-up team that led in the 4th quarter of a national championship has to count for something.

In 6 of Alabama’s past 8 games against Power 5 competition, it was a 1-score game in the 4th quarter. The lone exceptions were the MSU game and the SEC Championship. It’s great that Alabama learned how to win close games with that group. What this year’s team needs to find consistently is how to put teams away earlier. It’s such a rare problem for Alabama to have, but there’s something to be said for not needing your starters to play deep into games each and every week against SEC competition.

Alabama dealt with injury issues at the skill positions down the stretch, and while I’m not saying it was 100% the byproduct of playing in so many close games, there’s preservation value in being dominant. Saban doesn’t care about covering the spread. He cares about having his team avoid those droughts, of which, Alabama had a lot last year compared to what we’ve grown to expect.

If the Tide once again find themselves locked in a 1-score game late as a 3-touchdown favorite, file that away for the meat of the SEC schedule.

And a prediction … Alabama 52, Texas 31

Points! Points! Points! Points! Points! Everybody!

Sorry. I’ll leave now.

I hinted at this being a challenging day to play defense in that Texas heat. It’s also perhaps the byproduct of having 2 potent offenses that returned a ton of talent from top-20 groups last year. There could be some 2020 Alabama-Ole Miss vibes, but I think Texas is more likely to figure things out in the 3rd quarter after Alabama already jumped out to a 3-score lead. Perhaps that would make it more of 2021 Ole Miss-Alabama vibes.

Either way, I’m actually expecting to be impressed by Ewers’ poise in this one. If he finishes with fewer than 5 combined sacks taken/interceptions, that’d be somewhat of a victory. We’re probably gonna have moments in which we see him trust that ridiculous arm talent a bit too much, and he picks on Alabama in an unnecessary spot or two. He can still make significant strides toward quieting the notion that he’s Tate Martell 2.0. He’s not.

But ultimately, I expect another afternoon full of reminders that this Alabama offense ain’t fair. Even if Young is still learning how to become one with his new pass-catchers like Jermaine Burton and Tyler Harrell, I see no way in which he struggles against an unproven Texas defense, which got run off the field the last time it faced an SEC offense. Or if Young is contained somewhat, Gibbs is well-equipped to carry the load.

The Tide will roll, leaving Texas fans one more painful reminder of the life they could’ve had if only Saban had bolted for Austin a decade ago.