It seems more likely that Haley’s Comet will buzz by The Earth this year than Alabama won’t win at least some sort of title. And Haley’s isn’t due back until 2061, so let’s focus on the Crimson Tide — just like the rest of the college football world is.

Let’s not try to predict what teams remaining on Alabama’s schedule could beat the Tide. Instead, let’s determine who can keep the game close. Since we’re talking about Alabama, we’ll define close as two touchdowns.

So here is a countdown of the remaining programs on Alabama’s schedule, why they can stay close to Alabama and why they can’t.

Week 6: at Texas A&M

  • Why the Aggies can stay within 2 TDs: The Aggies already have 2 losses and rarely threatened the Tide when they had Kellen Mond. However, the Aggies can keep it competitive because the talent differential isn’t as incredibly substantial as it is against most teams. The game will also be played at Kyle Field, which should give Texas A&M an advantage as long as they are playing well.
  • Why the Aggies can’t keep it close? The Aggies are giving up way too many big plays on defense. Moreover, their quarterback play is incredibly inconsistent. Those are a lot of ills that would have to be remedied for the Aggies to keep it close, much less upset the Tide.

Week 7: at Mississippi State

  • Why State can stay within 2 TDs: Simply put, Mississippi State is unpredictable. A week after losing to LSU, State knocked off  Texas A&M 26-22 on Saturday. That’s how Bulldogs head coach Mike Leach has always been. He’s also that way in the passing game. Opposing teams never know what Leach will throw at them next.
  • Why State can’t keep it close? Do you really think there is any offensive game plan that Saban isn’t familiar with?

Week 8: Tennessee

  • Why the Vols can stay within 2 TDs: Believe it or not, this used to be one of the biggest rivalries in college football. Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel had better make that a point of emphasis. The Vols can also get receivers open deep but have struggled to complete those passes with any regularity. If UT can hit some of those long balls, the Vols can stay in the game.
  • Why the Vols can’t keep it close: There is still just too much of a talent gap between the programs. Plus, the Vols are still too inconsistent to beat a quality team. Those nearly-missed deep passes give reason for optimism, but the Vols haven’t completed nearly enough to make it a real threat.

Week 10: LSU

  • Why the Tigers can stay within 2 TDs: LSU is one of the few programs that can at least compare to Bama in terms of talent. No, they’re not as talented as Bama, but LSU has some players that can make game-altering plays that can help the Tigers in a potential upset. Kayshon Boutte is an absolute star who could have a 3-TD game against the Tide.
  • Why the Tigers can’t keep it close: LSU is just horrendous at defending the pass, while Alabama’s strength is throwing the football for vast chunks at a time. The Tigers are last in the SEC in passing defense with 248 yards allowed per game. LSU star defensive back Derek Stingley has been sidelined for most of the season with an injury. Unless that secondary undergoes a major overhaul, the Tigers can’t keep it close.

Week 11: New Mexico State

  • Why the Aggies can stay within 2 TDs: Well, to put it bluntly they can’t. Sure, there are monumental upsets and close calls every season, but not when Alabama coach Nick Saban is heading up the favorite.
  • Why Aggies can’t keep it close: Because they’re New Mexico State.

Week 12: at Arkansas

  • Why the Razorbacks can stay within 2 TDs: Arkansas is like the throwback team that Alabama used to be. They are physical, focused on running the football and play great defense. Arkansas also plays well at home, so that could keep the game close for awhile.
  • Why the Razorbacks can’t keep it close: The most obvious advantage that Alabama has is talent. Also, teams have also had time to adjust to Arkansas’ unique, 3-2-5 defensive scheme. Arkansas is 11th-best at rushing defense in the SEC as it yields 153 per game. Saban will surely take note of that. Arkansas is improving at a commendable rate, but as Georgia just showed, the Hogs aren’t elite yet.

Week 13: at Auburn

  • Why the Tigers can stay within 2 TDs (and maybe shock Bama): First, this is a rivalry game to the extreme, so truly anything can happen. ESPN’s FPI gives Auburn an 17.5% chance at the upset, which might not sound like much, but it’s better than everybody else on Alabama’s schedule. Bo Nix is a total wild-card who typically plays better at Jordan-Hare. Plus, Auburn has won the past 2 games against Alabama at Jordan-Hare.
  • Why the Tigers can’t stay within 2 TDs: Well, this goes back to the rivalry aspect of this game. Nick Saban has never lost 3 times in a row on somebody else’s field. Auburn is the only team to beat him 2 times in a row on the same field.