When D’Eriq King takes the field for Miami against Alabama on Saturday afternoon, he’ll be the 15th starting quarterback to do so in a season-opener against Alabama during the Nick Saban era. Two of the previous 14 threw for multiple touchdown passes (half didn’t throw for any). One of the previous 14 threw for 300 yards (half didn’t break 105).

Zero of the previous 14 won (none kept it within single digits). King is trying to become the first quarterback to join that club. No, not the “we only lost to Alabama in an opener by single digits” club. It’s the “I took down Saban with 8 months to prepare” club. Currently, it’s still waiting to add its first member.

King might be the best quarterback that Alabama has seen in an opener under Saban (more on that in a minute). Still, though. Good luck.

He’ll attempt to take down the Tide as a 3-score underdog, which is fitting considering that 12 of Saban’s first 14 opening season wins at Alabama were decided by at least 3 scores. The 2014 opener against West Virginia was the last time Saban’s first opponent got closer than that, and it was also the aforementioned lone game of allowing 300 passing yards (and lone game allowing 8 yards per attempt).

That was Clint Trickett, who is now the wide receivers coach for former Alabama assistant Charles Huff at Marshall. What Trickett did that so many others couldn’t against the Tide in an opener was simple — he stretched the field. That matchup, which was also played in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game in Atlanta, only had 1 offensive touchdown from the Mountaineers, but Trickett led scoring drives and moved the ball with his ability to throw out of the RPOs.

Oh, and future top-10 draft pick Kevin White was virtually unguardable, which certainly helped the whole “stretch the field” variable of Dana Holgorsen’s offense.

With all due respect to Trickett, King is a better player. He’s also more dangerous as a runner. The 6th-year Miami senior is coming off a torn ACL, but he’s also entering Year 2 in Rhett Lashlee’s offense. In 2020, Miami finally modernized its approach with Lashlee’s use of tempo with the RPO throws with King as the starter, and it yielded the program’s first top-30 offense in 17 years.

Of course, none of that will be new to Saban. It wasn’t in 2014, either.

What will be new for Alabama is seeing someone in the opener who truly excels in both elements of the system like King. It’s different than Denard Robinson, who was a 2-time first-team All-Big Ten player entering the opener against Alabama in 2012, but he was clearly far more dynamic as a runner than he was as a passer. Tyrod Taylor ended up being a legitimate NFL quarterback, but back when his Virginia Tech squad faced Alabama in 2009, he was also much better as a runner than he was as a passer (neither mattered against Alabama).

Take a look back at the list of starting quarterbacks Alabama faced in openers under Saban and tell me which of these guys is more dangerous than King:

  • 2007 — Todd Spitzer (Western Carolina): 9-20, 90 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs
  • 2008 — Cullen Harper (Clemson): 20-34, 188 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT
  • 2009 — Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech): 9-20, 91 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs
  • 2010 — Jordan La Secla (San Jose State): 7-14, 85 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT
  • 2011 — Spencer Keith (Kent State): 20-47, 99 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • 2012 — Denard Robinson (Michigan): 11-26, 200 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs
  • 2013 — Logan Thomas (Virginia Tech): 5-26, 39 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT
  • 2014 — Clint Trickett (West Virginia): 29-45, 365 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs
  • 2015 — Joel Stave (Wisconsin): 26-39, 228 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
  • 2016 — Max Browne (USC): 14-29, 101 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT
  • 2017 — Deondre Francois (Florida State): 19-33, 210 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs
  • 2018 — Jawon Pass (Louisville): 20-39, 252 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
  • 2019 — Quentin Harris (Duke): 12-22, 97 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs
  • 2020 — Shawn Robinson (Mizzou): 19-25, 185 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs

At one point, maybe you would’ve said Francois or Robinson were better than King. Neither, however, excelled in both elements as a dual threat like King, who could easily throw for 3,500 yards and rack up another 600 on the ground this year. In Year 1 of the system, King had 27 touchdowns and he averaged nearly 300 scrimmage yards in 11 games (more like 10.5 because of his injury in the bowl game).

Now think about this. In those 14 openers, Saban’s defenses vs. starting quarterbacks allowed:

  • A) 9 total TD passes
  • B) 5.3 yards per attempt
  • C) 1 game w/ 300 passing yards
  • D) 10.9 points per game
  • E) All the above

It’s “E.” It’s always “E.”

In case it wasn’t obvious based on those absurd numbers, not a single one of those quarterbacks led a 30-point effort. West Virginia got to 23 thanks to a kickoff return touchdown (and 3 field goals) while Virginia Tech hit 24 points … also thanks to a kickoff return touchdown. That’s what it took just to break 20 against Alabama. Nobody else did that in an opener.

Have times changed, though? Absolutely.

Last year, Alabama ranked No. 70 against the pass, and it won a national title in dominant fashion. We’re coming off an SEC Championship in which Alabama won while surrendering 46 points and over 400 passing yards to Kyle Trask. Should we expect another veteran quarterback from the Sunshine State to put up massive numbers against Alabama at Mercedes-Benz Stadium? That’s debatable.

King does have a few things working in his favor. Besides the experience with Lashlee, King returns everyone from that offense minus tight end Brevin Jordan, though the Canes added Oklahoma transfer receiver Charleston Rambo.

King also has the respect of Saban, who spoke about how his set fits the modern game so well and why he’s such a challenge to defend (H/T 247sports):

“I think team speed on defense in this day and age in football is very, very important with all the people who run spread, who really are going to make you cover horizontally as well as vertically, the entire field. And when you have great athletes that have great speed, especially at the quarterback position, that adds another element to that that you’re out here, spread out, trying to cover all these guys and now you’ve got a quarterback who’s got great ability to scrambling, extend plays, make plays scrambling throwing as well as running, that adds another element to it.

“He certainly does that extremely well … and he’s a good decision-maker, whether it’s the RPOs, the bubbles, the smokes — the plays that they run that complement the running game. So I think this guy presents lots of issues because he’s a great player and a great athlete and he’s a great quarterback all rolled in one.”

You can read that and interpret in two different ways. You can either go “wow, maybe King really does have a chance of keeping the Alabama defense on its heels for 4 quarters.” Or, you can keep historical perspective in mind and go, “this looks like Saban watched plenty of Miami film this offseason, and Alabama should be well prepared to roll in another opener.”

In a weird way, both can be true. It’s possible that King becomes the first quarterback to lead a 30-point effort in an opener against Saban’s Alabama. It just might happen in a 48-31 Alabama win. That would create the usual Pete Golding criticism on social media, but in the end, it wouldn’t really change the season-long outlook of the defending national champs. At least it shouldn’t.

Nobody should be surprised if King makes plays Saturday. They could be the types of plays that we’ve never seen against a Saban defense in an opener. And it’s also entirely possible that King struggles like he did against Clemson last year when he posted a 12-for-28, 0 TD, 2 INT line with 84 rushing yards. I think the former is more likely than the latter.

But will King finally be the one to break through and win an opener against Saban?

It still might not be best to bet against the king on the Alabama sideline.