Ranking SEC teams against the spread
Editor’s Note: We will track various gambling statistics related to SEC teams throughout the season and update them every week.
If you’re a Razorbacks fan and a gambler, chances are you’re a happy man or woman.
If you bet $100 on every Arkansas game this season, you’ve won $527.28. That’s a 52.7 percent ROI on your $1,000 in less than three months. The Hogs, favored against an SEC team for the first time all season, beat LSU, 17-0, on Saturday to snap a lengthy conference losing streak.
Coach Bret Bielema’s group has performed well ATS all season, scaring Texas A&M, Alabama and Mississippi State before Saturday’s breakthrough. The Hogs’ combined ATS +/- reached +94, the highest mark for any SEC team all season. Win Saturday against Ole Miss and there’s a good chance Arkansas breaks triple digits in a market usually swift to self-correct.
Meanwhile, Tennessee has leaped up to third in the SEC in ATS +/- at +69. UT beat the spread by a combined 31.5 points with Joshua Dobbs as its starting quarterback. Three games ago against Alabama, the Tide outscored the Vols just 21-20 after Dobbs entered the game for Nathan Peterman.
The first chart below is a running tally of how each SEC team has performed against the spread this season. In other words, if Tennessee is favored by 10 points, but wins by 20, the Vols are +10 for that week. It gives us an idea of how teams are performing relative to expectations.
Team | ATS Combined +/- | ATS Record |
---|---|---|
1. Arkansas | +94 | 8-2 |
2. Ole Miss | +76.5 | 6-3-1 |
3. Tennessee | +69 | 5-4 |
4. Georgia | +65 | 6-4 |
5. Mississippi State | +29 | 6-4 |
6. Missouri | +28 | 6-4 |
7. LSU | +15.5 | 5-5-1 |
8. Alabama | +5.5* | 3-6* |
9. Florida | -3 | 4-5 |
10. Kentucky | -16 | 6-5 |
11. Texas A&M | -22 | 4-7 |
12. Auburn | -34 | 4-6 |
13. South Carolina | -49.5 | 3-7 |
14. Vanderbilt | -56 | 5-5 |
*The game against Florida Atlantic ended as a no contest because it was suspended and finalized before 55 minutes had been played. Alabama was leading 41-0 at the time. The Las Vegas Hilton line for the game closed at Bama -41.5.
The chart below tracks the average line for each SEC team throughout the season as an indicator of perceived strength. Alabama’s average Vegas line is minus-18.7, highest in the conference.
Thanks to four consecutive huge losses, Kentucky now is an underdog on average, joining Tennessee and Vanderbilt as the three SEC teams with that distinction. Georgia, meanwhile, has shot up this list and now is a two-touchdown favorite on average, behind only Alabama.
SEC East leader Missouri is 10th in the SEC, behind South Carolina and Florida, facing an average line of minus-6.4.
Team | Average Line | Biggest Line |
---|---|---|
1. Alabama | -18.7 | -46.5 vs. Southern Miss |
2. Georgia | -14 | -42 vs. Troy |
3. Ole Miss | -13.9 | -49.5 vs. Presbyterian |
4. Auburn | -13.8 | -34 vs. San Jose State |
5. Mississippi State | -12.9 | -44.5 vs. Tennessee-Martin |
6. Texas A&M | -10.3 | -47 vs. Lamar |
7. LSU | -10.1 | -43 vs. New Mexico State |
8. Florida | -9.8# | -41.5 vs. Eastern Michigan |
9. South Carolina | -6.9 | -37.5 vs. Furman |
10. Missouri | -6.4 | -26 vs. South Dakota State |
11. Arkansas | -3.1 | -40.5 vs. Nicholls State |
12. Kentucky | +0.5 | -23.5 vs. Tennessee-Martin |
13. Tennessee | +2.4 | -26.5 vs. Chattanooga |
14. Vanderbilt | +7.7 | -20 vs. Charleston Southern |
#Florida entered the game against Idaho as a 37-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening kickoff, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
The following chart tracks the average over/under for every SEC team as well as whether each team’s games go over or under the posted Vegas total.
Georgia held Auburn to seven points, going under the total for just the second time in 10 games in a resounding 34-7 victory. Auburn and Georgia combined for just 42 points against an over/under of 72.5.
Team | Average Over/Under | Biggest Over/Under | Over/Under (Results) |
---|---|---|---|
1. Texas A&M | 66.3 | 76.5 vs. Lamar | 5/6 |
2. Auburn | 62.6 | 72.5 at Georgia | 6/4 |
3. Arkansas | 59.7 | 73.5 vs. Texas A&M | 5/4 |
4. South Carolina | 59.1 | 65.0 vs. East Carolina | 6/3 |
5. Mississippi State | 58.0 | 73.5 vs. Texas A&M | 4/5 |
6. Georgia | 57.8 | 72.5 vs. Auburn | 8/2 |
7. Missouri | 55.3 | 71.5 vs. Indiana | 4/6 |
8. Ole Miss | 53.6 | 64.0 vs. Texas A&M | 3/6 |
9. Alabama | 53.3 | 63.0 vs. Texas A&M | 4/5 |
10. Tennessee | 53.3 | 59.5 vs. Arkansas State | 4/5 |
11. Kentucky | 52.8 | 59.5 vs. Mississippi State | 7/4 |
12. LSU | 50.6 | 66.0 vs. Sam Houston State | 4/7 |
13. Florida | 50.1# | 56.5 vs. Eastern Michigan | 7/2 |
14. Vanderbilt | 49.2 | 59.5 vs. Old Dominion | 5/5 |
#Florida entered the game against Idaho as a 37-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening kickoff, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.